Tornado Warning 29, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...AVIATION UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
430 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2007

.AVIATION...
430 PM...
AMENDED METROPLEX TAFS TO INCLUDE ONSET OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. EXTRAPOLATION OF CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGESTS SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL BE IN THE DFW TRACON AREA BY 23Z...WITH HEAVY
THUNDERSTORMS BY 01Z. AT THIS TIME...THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO PERSIST FOR ONE HOUR...WITH LIGHT RAIN CONTINUING THROUGH 04Z.
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY MVFR CIGS AS QUICK GLANCE AT 925MB RH FIELDS
SUGGEST INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TOWARD DAWN.
HOWEVER...MAIN FOCUS OF AMENDMENT WAS ON THE FIRST 6 HOURS. WILL
AMEND FURTHER IF NEEDED...AND WILL LIKELY BE ISSUING AWW.

FOR ACT...WILL LET CURRENT TAFS GO AT THIS TIME...BUT MAY AMEND
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO IF NEEDED. LOOKS LIKE PRECIP WILL HOLD
OFF FOR A WHILE AT ACT.

SCHULTZ
&&

.DISCUSSION...
400 PM CDT

MCS CONTINUES RACING EASTWARD...OUTER FRINGES NOW IMPACTING
WESTERN PORTIONS OF CWA. TORNADO WATCH ISSUED EARLIER...NEWEST
WATCH INCLUDES ALL OF CWA GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20. THIS
IS THE SAME AREA THAT SAW A HEALTHY DOUSING OF RAIN YESTERDAY...SO
HAVE ISSUED FFA FOR EVENING/OVERNIGHT FOR MOST AREAS SOUTH OF I-20
CORRIDOR. HEAVIEST RAIN WILL LIKELY BE ASSOCIATED WITH INTENSE
CONVECTION NOW HEADING INTO SW ZONES. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO
SCOUR CWA OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

DESPITE SPEED OF MCS...MAIN SHORTWAVE PROGRESSING MORE SLOWLY THAN
PREVIOUS DAY. WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND PERSISTENT WARM ADVECTION...
HIGH POPS WILL BE CARRIED THROUGH THURSDAY...BOTH WITH ANY
LINGERING MORNING ACTIVITY FROM NOCTURNAL CONVECTION AS WELL AS
REDEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY.

AFTER SHORTWAVE EXITS...RIDGING WILL DOMINATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS SEASON. STILL BELIEVE
CAPPING WILL PREVENT MUCH CONVECTION EARLY IN THE WEEK...BUT
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH EVOLUTION OF UPPER LOW. 25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  63  78  65  89  69 /  70  60  10  10   0
WACO, TX              64  80  65  89  71 /  80  60  10  10   0
PARIS, TX             63  77  63  86  66 /  60  60  30  10   0
DENTON, TX            63  78  65  89  70 /  60  60  10  10   0
MCKINNEY, TX          62  78  64  87  68 /  60  60  10  10   0
DALLAS, TX            63  78  66  88  72 /  70  60  10  10   0
TERRELL, TX           64  78  65  87  69 /  70  60  10  10   0
CORSICANA, TX         64  79  66  87  70 /  70  60  10  10   0
TEMPLE, TX            65  81  65  89  69 /  80  60  10  10   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ129-130-132-135-141>148-156>162-174-175.

&&

WFO FWD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
239 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2007

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-031945-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-
NAVARRO-FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-
LIMESTONE-LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
239 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT TONIGHT...ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
CISCO...GRANBURY...HILLSBORO...CORSICANA...ATHENS LINE...DUE TO
RECENT...HEAVY RAINS ACROSS THIS AREA.

SCATTERED...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE
HAIL...AND LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES WILL
MOVE INTO FAR WESTERN SECTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS BY 3 PM AND AFTER.
THIS COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD TO THE INTERSTATE 35
CORRIDOR THROUGH MIDNIGHT. A TORNADO OR TWO CANT BE RULED OUT
THROUGH THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD
THE REMAINDER OF NORTH TEXAS...WITH THE GREATEST RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20...WHERE STRONGER
INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR ALOFT WILL WILL RESIDE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
SCATTERED...NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS...WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH THE GREATEST RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER BEING OVER SOUTHEAST
PARTS OF THE REGION. ACTIVITY SHOULD SLOWLY TAPER OFF IN THE AFTERNOON...
AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES SHIFTS EAST AWAY FROM THE AREA BY THURSDAY
EVENING.

LOW CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO FAR WESTERN SECTIONS OF
NORTH TEXAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN OVER THE REMAINDER
OF NORTH TEXAS MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WHEN ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
DEEPENS OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES ONCE AGAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ALONG AND WEST OF
INTERSTATE 35 THROUGH LATE EVENING...THEN AREAS FURTHER EAST BY
MIDNIGHT AND AFTER.

05/

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
333 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2007

TXZ129-130-141>143-022100-
EASTLAND TX-ERATH TX-COMANCHE TX-HAMILTON TX-MILLS TX-
333 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  COMANCHE COUNTY
  EASTLAND COUNTY
  SOUTHWESTERN ERATH COUNTY
  HAMILTON COUNTY
  MILLS COUNTY

AT 333 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 13 MILES SOUTHEAST OF COMANCHE...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 30 MPH. IN ADDITION...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED
FROM DUDLEY...COLEMAN...TO MENARD...MOVING EAST AT 35 TO 45 MPH.

PEA-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THE
COMANCHE COUNTY STORM.

VERY HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THE LINE OF
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.

IF THE COMANCHE COUNTY STORM INTENSIFIES...A SEVERE WEATHER WARNING
MAY BE NEEDED. SEVERE WEATHER WARNINGS ARE LIKELY FOR THE LINE OF
STRONG STORMS AS THEY MOVE EAST INTO NORTH TEXAS.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE TORNADOES WITH LITTLE NOTICE.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT WEDNESDAY EVENING
FOR NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3213 9911 3128 9856 3160 9791 3182 9816
      3253 9856 3253 9913

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
424 PM CDT WED MAY 02 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0423 PM     TSTM WND GST     8 W COMANCHE            31.90N  98.74W
05/02/2007  E60 MPH          COMANCHE           TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            RELAYED BY COMANCHE SHERIFFS OFFICE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
438 PM CDT WED MAY 02 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0436 PM     TSTM WND GST     COMANCHE                31.90N  98.60W
05/02/2007  E60 MPH          COMANCHE           TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            REPORTED BY COMANCHE SHERIFFS OFFICE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
452 PM CDT WED MAY 02 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0407 PM     TSTM WND DMG     GOLDTHWAITE             31.45N  98.57W
05/02/2007                   MILLS              TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LARGE TREE LIMBS DOWN...TIME ESTIMATED

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
504 PM CDT WED MAY 02 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0407 PM     TSTM WND DMG     12 NW GOLDTHWAITE       31.58N  98.72W
05/02/2007                   MILLS              TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE LIMBS DOWN...CORRECTED LOCATION