Severe Thunderstorm Warning 135, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
707 PM CDT TUE MAY 1 2007

.UPDATE...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF NORTH TEXAS AS OF 00Z. A BAND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...IS
MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA TOWARD THE RED RIVER.
HAVE ADJUSTED TO POPS TO INDICATE BETTER TIMING OF THE RAIN FOR
TONIGHT. GENERALLY LOWERING THE POPS ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL AND
NORTH CENTRAL ZONES FOR THIS EVENING. HAVE ALSO MADE SOME HOURLY
TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT ADJUSTMENTS. UPDATES HAVE ALREADY BEEN SENT.
#58

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 PM CDT TUE MAY 1 2007/

AVIATION...
630 PM.
MAJOR CONVECTION WILL REMAIN SOUTH THROUGH EAST OF THE METROPLEX
THIS EVENING...BUT WILL LIKELY EFFECT KACT THROUGH 04Z AND MAYBE
BEYOND.

VISIBLE SAT LOOPS SHOWS LITTLE THREAT OF CONVECTION FOR THE KDFW
TRACON THIS EVENING AS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE FROM THE WEST.
BAND OF CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA SHOULD TRACK
EAST JUST SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BEST
CHANCE OF CONVECTION KDFW TRACON WILL BE AFTER 22Z WEDNESDAY.

LOWER ATMOSPHERE SHOULD SATURATE OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS
REDEVELOPING ACROSS KDFW TRACON AROUND 04Z...AND GOING IFR 11-16Z.
CIGS IMPROVING SLOWLY ON WEDNESDAY WITH VFR CIGS MID-LATE AFTERNOON.
EXPECTED KACT TO REMAIN MVFR THIS EVENING...WITH IFR CIGS
08-16Z...IMPROVING TO MVFR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND FINALLY
VFR BY 22Z.  75

DISCUSSION...
345 PM CDT

UPPER LOW NOW CENTERED OVER OKLAHOMA. SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE
BLOSSOMED ALONG ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
TO NEAR CHILDRESS. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE HELPED INITIATE
SOME SFC-BASED CONVECTION DEEPER INTO THE WARM SECTOR IN NORTHWEST
ZONES...AND EXPECT FURTHER ACTIVITY IN NORTHERN ZONES AS LOW
CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY NE.

CYCLIC MCS SOUTH OF I-20 STOLE THE SHOW TODAY. SOME FLOODING
ISSUES MAY STILL OCCUR WITH ACTIVITY IN SE ZONES THROUGH THE END
OF THE FFA...BEYOND WHICH THE PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN EXITING THE
CWA. THOUGH SOME AREAS COULD FLOOD READILY WITH ANY HEAVY RAINFALL
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...FULLY EXPECT ANY FLOODING ISSUES TO BE
ISOLATED. AS A RESULT...THE WATCH WILL NOT BE EXTENDED WHEN IT
EXPIRES AT 4 PM.

NEXT UPPER LOW HAS MADE LANDFALL NEAR SAN DIEGO...AND WILL
CONTINUE RACING EAST. PROJECTED IMPACTS LOOK TO BE AS EARLY AS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS
IN FAR WESTERN ZONES. THE MAIN RAIN EVENT IS LIKELY TO BE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THOUGH FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE...THE
FLOODING CONCERNS MAY BE REVISITED.

STILL APPEARS THAT RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THIS WEEKEND. FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE PRECIPITATION-FREE...WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DEEP POLAR TROUGHING INTO THE WESTERN STATES MAY RESULT IN A CUT-
OFF. SPECIFICALLY TIMING THE SYSTEM AT THIS POINT WOULD BE A LOW
PROBABILITY AFFAIR...AND WILL MAINTAIN PROLONGED SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR NOW. IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE FOR RIDGING TO CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE...WITH LOW EJECTING NE WELL TO THE NORTH OF NORTH TEXAS.
PROGS NOW FAVOR HEIGHTS INDICATIVE OF SIGNIFICANT CAPPING. 25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  63  80  65  77  67 /  50  40  60  50  30
WACO, TX              64  83  68  80  69 /  50  40  60  50  20
PARIS, TX             63  76  64  76  63 /  70  60  60  50  40
DENTON, TX            64  80  65  78  68 /  50  40  60  50  30
MCKINNEY, TX          63  78  63  78  65 /  50  40  60  50  30
DALLAS, TX            64  83  66  80  66 /  50  40  60  50  30
TERRELL, TX           64  80  66  79  65 /  60  40  60  50  30
CORSICANA, TX         63  80  66  79  67 /  80  40  60  50  30
TEMPLE, TX            66  82  67  79  66 /  40  30  60  50  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

75/58

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
309 PM CDT TUE MAY 1 2007

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-021200-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-
NAVARRO-FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-
LIMESTONE-LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
309 PM CDT TUE MAY 1 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY THIS EVENING...ACROSS MAINLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF NORTH TEXAS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO BETWEEN 1 AND
2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FLASH FLOODING ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD DIMINISH
RAPIDLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT...AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO PUSH
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA.

OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR PATCHY AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP TOWARD
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER MOST OF THE NORTH TEXAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED...HOWEVER...ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WEST OF INTERSTATE 35...BOTH WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS...AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LIFTS OUT
OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. LOCALIZED...HEAVY RAINFALL CANT BE RULED
OUT AS WELL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH EARLY
EVENING...NAMELY FOR ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING.

05/

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
425 PM CDT TUE MAY 01 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0422 PM     HAIL             HEARNE                  30.88N  96.59W
05/01/2007  E1.00 INCH       ROBERTSON          TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            FALLING IN HEARNE AT PD...STREET FLOODING ALSO OCCURING
            IN THE TOWN AND ALONG HWY 485

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
452 PM CDT TUE MAY 01 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0447 PM     FLASH FLOOD      HEARNE                  30.88N  96.59W
05/01/2007                   ROBERTSON          TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            OUTER LANES OF HIGHWAY 6 IMPASSIBLE...TRAFFIC FORCED TO
            CENTER LANE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
502 PM CDT TUE MAY 1 2007

TXZ174-012230-
MILAM TX-
502 PM CDT TUE MAY 1 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTHEASTERN MILAM COUNTY

AT 502 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES EAST OF CAMERON...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...PEA-SIZED
HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3106 9696 3088 9697 3088 9670 3104 9677

SCHULTZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
527 PM CDT TUE MAY 1 2007

TXZ174-012330-
MILAM TX-
527 PM CDT TUE MAY 1 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  MILAM COUNTY

AT 527 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
SEVERAL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COUNTY. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
WERE LOCATED NORTH AND WEST OF CAMERON...AND ALSO JUST EAST OF
ROCKDALE. ALL ACTIVITY IS MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE CAMERON AND ROCKDALE.
RURAL PORTIONS OF EASTERN MILAM COUNTY WILL ALSO BE IN THE PATH OF
THESE STORMS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...PEA-SIZED
HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THESE STORMS.

LAT...LON 3071 9725 3076 9731 3089 9726 3111 9684
      3107 9682 3104 9678 3094 9677 3090 9670
      3085 9670 3076 9662 3072 9665 3048 9715

SCHULTZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
625 PM CDT TUE MAY 1 2007

TXZ161-020030-
LIMESTONE TX-
625 PM CDT TUE MAY 1 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  EAST CENTRAL LIMESTONE COUNTY

AT 625 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GROESBECK...MOVING EAST AT
25 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE GROESBECK.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...PEA-SIZED
HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS STORM.

IF THIS STORM INTENSIFIES...A SEVERE WEATHER WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

LAT...LON 3158 9656 3142 9652 3146 9626 3161 9639

SCHULTZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
818 PM CDT TUE MAY 1 2007

TXZ174-020145-
MILAM TX-
818 PM CDT TUE MAY 1 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  SOUTH CENTRAL MILAM COUNTY

AT 818 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 13 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ROCKDALE...MOVING EAST AT
15 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE ROCKDALE.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...PEA-SIZED
HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS STORM.

IF THIS STORM INTENSIFIES...A SEVERE WEATHER WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

LAT...LON 3065 9723 3047 9715 3060 9689 3066 9698

SCHULTZ