Severe Thunderstorm Warning 139, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
914 PM CDT TUE MAY 1 2007

.UPDATE...
HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 6 AM FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
THIRD OF NORTH TEXAS...GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A
GOLDTHWAITE...TO CANTON LINE. HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE WATCH AREA OVERNIGHT. AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED...WITH ISOLATED 3 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE AS THE STORMS TRAIN.
THE 00Z RUC INDICATES THAT MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THROUGH 12Z. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT. #58

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 707 PM CDT TUE MAY 1 2007/

UPDATE...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF NORTH TEXAS AS OF 00Z. A BAND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...IS
MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA TOWARD THE RED RIVER.
HAVE ADJUSTED TO POPS TO INDICATE BETTER TIMING OF THE RAIN FOR
TONIGHT. GENERALLY LOWERING THE POPS ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL AND
NORTH CENTRAL ZONES FOR THIS EVENING. HAVE ALSO MADE SOME HOURLY
TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT ADJUSTMENTS. UPDATES HAVE ALREADY BEEN SENT.
#58

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 PM CDT TUE MAY 1 2007/

AVIATION...
630 PM.
MAJOR CONVECTION WILL REMAIN SOUTH THROUGH EAST OF THE METROPLEX
THIS EVENING...BUT WILL LIKELY EFFECT KACT THROUGH 04Z AND MAYBE
BEYOND.

VISIBLE SAT LOOPS SHOWS LITTLE THREAT OF CONVECTION FOR THE KDFW
TRACON THIS EVENING AS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE FROM THE WEST.
BAND OF CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA SHOULD TRACK
EAST JUST SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BEST
CHANCE OF CONVECTION KDFW TRACON WILL BE AFTER 22Z WEDNESDAY.

LOWER ATMOSPHERE SHOULD SATURATE OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS
REDEVELOPING ACROSS KDFW TRACON AROUND 04Z...AND GOING IFR 11-16Z.
CIGS IMPROVING SLOWLY ON WEDNESDAY WITH VFR CIGS MID-LATE AFTERNOON.
EXPECTED KACT TO REMAIN MVFR THIS EVENING...WITH IFR CIGS
08-16Z...IMPROVING TO MVFR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND FINALLY
VFR BY 22Z.  75

DISCUSSION...
345 PM CDT

UPPER LOW NOW CENTERED OVER OKLAHOMA. SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE
BLOSSOMED ALONG ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
TO NEAR CHILDRESS. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE HELPED INITIATE
SOME SFC-BASED CONVECTION DEEPER INTO THE WARM SECTOR IN NORTHWEST
ZONES...AND EXPECT FURTHER ACTIVITY IN NORTHERN ZONES AS LOW
CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY NE.

CYCLIC MCS SOUTH OF I-20 STOLE THE SHOW TODAY. SOME FLOODING
ISSUES MAY STILL OCCUR WITH ACTIVITY IN SE ZONES THROUGH THE END
OF THE FFA...BEYOND WHICH THE PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN EXITING THE
CWA. THOUGH SOME AREAS COULD FLOOD READILY WITH ANY HEAVY RAINFALL
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...FULLY EXPECT ANY FLOODING ISSUES TO BE
ISOLATED. AS A RESULT...THE WATCH WILL NOT BE EXTENDED WHEN IT
EXPIRES AT 4 PM.

NEXT UPPER LOW HAS MADE LANDFALL NEAR SAN DIEGO...AND WILL
CONTINUE RACING EAST. PROJECTED IMPACTS LOOK TO BE AS EARLY AS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS
IN FAR WESTERN ZONES. THE MAIN RAIN EVENT IS LIKELY TO BE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THOUGH FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE...THE
FLOODING CONCERNS MAY BE REVISITED.

STILL APPEARS THAT RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THIS WEEKEND. FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE PRECIPITATION-FREE...WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DEEP POLAR TROUGHING INTO THE WESTERN STATES MAY RESULT IN A CUT-
OFF. SPECIFICALLY TIMING THE SYSTEM AT THIS POINT WOULD BE A LOW
PROBABILITY AFFAIR...AND WILL MAINTAIN PROLONGED SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR NOW. IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE FOR RIDGING TO CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE...WITH LOW EJECTING NE WELL TO THE NORTH OF NORTH TEXAS.
PROGS NOW FAVOR HEIGHTS INDICATIVE OF SIGNIFICANT CAPPING. 25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  63  80  65  77  67 /  50  40  60  50  30
WACO, TX              64  83  68  80  69 /  80  40  60  50  20
PARIS, TX             63  76  64  76  63 /  70  60  60  50  40
DENTON, TX            64  80  65  78  68 /  50  40  60  50  30
MCKINNEY, TX          63  78  63  78  65 /  50  40  60  50  30
DALLAS, TX            64  83  66  80  66 /  50  40  60  50  30
TERRELL, TX           64  80  66  79  65 /  60  40  60  50  30
CORSICANA, TX         63  80  66  79  67 /  80  40  60  50  30
TEMPLE, TX            66  82  67  79  66 /  80  30  60  50  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ122-135-142>148-156>162-174-175.

&&

75/58

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1004 PM CDT TUE MAY 01 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0933 PM     TORNADO          TEAGUE                  31.63N  96.28W
05/01/2007                   FREESTONE          TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            POSSIBLE TORNADO IN TEAGUE. DAMAGING TO SEVERAL
            STRUCTURES REPORTED TO SO.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1006 PM CDT TUE MAY 01 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1004 PM     TORNADO          7 S FAIRFIELD           31.62N  96.17W
05/01/2007                   FREESTONE          TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            PUBLIC REPORTS OF POSSIBLE TORNADO IN DEW. SOME DAMAGE
            REPORTED TO SO.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1021 PM CDT TUE MAY 1 2007

TXZ146-020415-
NAVARRO TX-
1021 PM CDT TUE MAY 1 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  EASTERN NAVARRO COUNTY

AT 1021 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES NORTH OF MEXIA...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE KERENS AND NAVARRO.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...PEA-SIZED
HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3204 9645 3187 9638 3201 9603 3231 9634

SCHULTZ

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