Severe Thunderstorm Warning 162, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
704 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2007

.UPDATE...
AN UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO EXPAND TORNADO WATCH 211 TO INCLUDE
THE AREA ALONG AND EAST OF A GAINESVILLE TO DENTON LINE EAST
THOUGH PARIS AND SULPHUR SPRINGS. HAVE ALSO CLEARED THE
3 COUNTIES THAT WERE IN TORNADO WATCH 209...AND CLEARED
PALO PINTO AND STEPHENS FROM TORNADO WATCH 211.

HAVE ALSO ADJUST TONIGHT/S POPS...ADDED MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN
FURTHER NORTH...AND ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS. #58

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2007/

AVIATION...
630 PM...
FOCUS FOR THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE IS ONGOING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. AT
2330Z...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALREADY PUSHING THROUGH THE ACT
TERMINAL. SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ESTIMATED TO CONTINUE THROUGH 03Z
AT ACT...DUE TO REDEVELOPMENT TO THE SOUTHWEST.

FOR THE METROPLEX...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL TARRANT COUNTY
ARE MOVING DIRECTLY TOWARD THE DFW AREA. FREQUENT LIGHTNING...WINDS
IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...AND QUARTER HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED. THERE IS
ALSO A BOUNDARY PUSHING NORTHWARD ACROSS TARRANT AND DALLAS
COUNTIES. FUNNEL CLOUDS AND A BRIEF TORNADO SPIN UP CANNOT BE RULED
OUT. EXPECT THE HEAVY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO LAST AROUND ONE HOUR.
AFTER 01Z...LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN...WITH SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER
WILL BE COMMON. SEE AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING OVER SW TEXAS
IN ASSOCIATION WITH ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE. ANOTHER MCS WILL
LIKELY MOVE THROUGH THE ACT AND METROPLEX TERMINALS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
STRATUS MAY DEVELOP AFTER 09Z AND LINGER THROUGH THE MID MORNING
HOURS. CUMULUS WILL BUILD IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WILL LEAVE MENTION OF
AFTERNOON RA/TSRA OUT OF TAFS AT THIS TIME.

SCHULTZ

DISCUSSION...

AVIATION UPDATE...
430 PM...
AMENDED METROPLEX TAFS TO INCLUDE ONSET OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. EXTRAPOLATION OF CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGESTS SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL BE IN THE DFW TRACON AREA BY 23Z...WITH HEAVY
THUNDERSTORMS BY 01Z. AT THIS TIME...THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO PERSIST FOR ONE HOUR...WITH LIGHT RAIN CONTINUING THROUGH 04Z.
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY MVFR CIGS AS QUICK GLANCE AT 925MB RH FIELDS
SUGGEST INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TOWARD DAWN.
HOWEVER...MAIN FOCUS OF AMENDMENT WAS ON THE FIRST 6 HOURS. WILL
AMEND FURTHER IF NEEDED...AND WILL LIKELY BE ISSUING AWW.

FOR ACT...WILL LET CURRENT TAFS GO AT THIS TIME...BUT MAY AMEND
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO IF NEEDED. LOOKS LIKE PRECIP WILL HOLD
OFF FOR A WHILE AT ACT.

SCHULTZ

PREV DISCUSSION...
400 PM CDT
MCS CONTINUES RACING EASTWARD...OUTER FRINGES NOW IMPACTING WESTERN
PORTIONS OF CWA. TORNADO WATCH ISSUED EARLIER...NEWEST WATCH
INCLUDES ALL OF CWA GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20. THIS IS THE
SAME AREA THAT SAW A HEALTHY DOUSING OF RAIN YESTERDAY...SO HAVE
ISSUED FFA FOR EVENING/OVERNIGHT FOR MOST AREAS SOUTH OF I-20
CORRIDOR. HEAVIEST RAIN WILL LIKELY BE ASSOCIATED WITH INTENSE
CONVECTION NOW HEADING INTO SW ZONES. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO SCOUR
CWA OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

DESPITE SPEED OF MCS...MAIN SHORTWAVE PROGRESSING MORE SLOWLY THAN
PREVIOUS DAY. WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND PERSISTENT WARM ADVECTION...
HIGH POPS WILL BE CARRIED THROUGH THURSDAY...BOTH WITH ANY
LINGERING MORNING ACTIVITY FROM NOCTURNAL CONVECTION AS WELL AS
REDEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY.

AFTER SHORTWAVE EXITS...RIDGING WILL DOMINATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS SEASON. STILL BELIEVE
CAPPING WILL PREVENT MUCH CONVECTION EARLY IN THE WEEK...BUT
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH EVOLUTION OF UPPER LOW. 25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  63  78  65  89  69 / 100  60  10  10   0
WACO, TX              64  80  65  89  71 / 100  60  10  10   0
PARIS, TX             63  77  63  86  66 / 100  60  30  10   0
DENTON, TX            63  78  65  89  70 / 100  60  10  10   0
MCKINNEY, TX          62  78  64  87  68 / 100  60  10  10   0
DALLAS, TX            63  78  66  88  72 / 100  60  10  10   0
TERRELL, TX           64  78  65  87  69 / 100  60  10  10   0
CORSICANA, TX         64  79  66  87  70 / 100  60  10  10   0
TEMPLE, TX            65  81  65  89  69 / 100  60  10  10   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ129-130-132-135-141>148-156>162-174-175.

&&

99/58

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
239 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2007

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-031945-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-
NAVARRO-FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-
LIMESTONE-LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
239 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT TONIGHT...ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
CISCO...GRANBURY...HILLSBORO...CORSICANA...ATHENS LINE...DUE TO
RECENT...HEAVY RAINS ACROSS THIS AREA.

SCATTERED...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE
HAIL...AND LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES WILL
MOVE INTO FAR WESTERN SECTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS BY 3 PM AND AFTER.
THIS COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD TO THE INTERSTATE 35
CORRIDOR THROUGH MIDNIGHT. A TORNADO OR TWO CANT BE RULED OUT
THROUGH THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD
THE REMAINDER OF NORTH TEXAS...WITH THE GREATEST RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20...WHERE STRONGER
INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR ALOFT WILL WILL RESIDE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
SCATTERED...NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS...WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH THE GREATEST RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER BEING OVER SOUTHEAST
PARTS OF THE REGION. ACTIVITY SHOULD SLOWLY TAPER OFF IN THE AFTERNOON...
AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES SHIFTS EAST AWAY FROM THE AREA BY THURSDAY
EVENING.

LOW CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO FAR WESTERN SECTIONS OF
NORTH TEXAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN OVER THE REMAINDER
OF NORTH TEXAS MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WHEN ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
DEEPENS OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES ONCE AGAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ALONG AND WEST OF
INTERSTATE 35 THROUGH LATE EVENING...THEN AREAS FURTHER EAST BY
MIDNIGHT AND AFTER.

05/

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
610 PM CDT WED MAY 02 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0605 PM     TSTM WND GST     CLEBURNE                32.35N  97.41W
05/02/2007  E80 MPH          JOHNSON            TX   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREES DOWN NEAR HOSPITAL.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
625 PM CDT WED MAY 02 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0620 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 SE BENBROOK           32.66N  97.44W
05/02/2007  E75 MPH          TARRANT            TX   AMATEUR RADIO

            2 SE OF BENBROOK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
659 PM CDT WED MAY 02 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0658 PM     FLOOD            GUSTINE                 31.85N  98.40W
05/02/2007                   COMANCHE           TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WATER UP TO CAR HOOD ON CR 370 NEAR GUSTINE. WATER
            RESCUE ONGOING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
704 PM CDT WED MAY 02 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0548 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 S GODLEY              32.41N  97.53W
05/02/2007                   JOHNSON            TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LARGE TREE LIMBS DOWN...WINDS ESTIMATED AT 80+ MPH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
706 PM CDT WED MAY 02 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0645 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SW KELLER             32.90N  97.26W
05/02/2007                   TARRANT            TX   NWS EMPLOYEE

            SMALL TREE LIMBS DOWN...WINDS ESTIMATED AT 60 MPH. YOUNG
            TREES BENT TO GROUND

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
712 PM CDT WED MAY 02 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0635 PM     TSTM WND DMG     7 NE ALVARADO           32.48N  97.13W
05/02/2007                   JOHNSON            TX   PUBLIC

            ROOF AND STRUCTURAL DAMAGE TO METAL ROOFING, MAILBOXES
            BLOWN OVER