Flash Flood Warning 96, NWS Fort Worth, TX

000 
WGUS74 KFWD 030413
FFSFWD

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1113 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2007

TXC289-030615-
LEON TX-
1113 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2007

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 115 AM CDT FOR LEON
COUNTY...

AT 1110 PM CDT...RESIDUAL FLOODING CONTINUES IN LEON. THE HEAVIEST 
RAIN HAS MOVED EAST BUT LIGHT TO OCCASIONAL MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES. 
AS THE RAIN MOVES ON OUT CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT FEW 
HOURS.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. MOVE
UP TO HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS
SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

LAT...LON 3122 9631 3137 9631 3162 9579 3159 9577
      3164 9573 3160 9571 3153 9577 3152 9574
      3146 9576 3132 9566 3127 9573 3111 9577
      3110 9598 3098 9623

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
704 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2007

.UPDATE...
AN UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO EXPAND TORNADO WATCH 211 TO INCLUDE
THE AREA ALONG AND EAST OF A GAINESVILLE TO DENTON LINE EAST
THOUGH PARIS AND SULPHUR SPRINGS. HAVE ALSO CLEARED THE
3 COUNTIES THAT WERE IN TORNADO WATCH 209...AND CLEARED
PALO PINTO AND STEPHENS FROM TORNADO WATCH 211.

HAVE ALSO ADJUST TONIGHT/S POPS...ADDED MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN
FURTHER NORTH...AND ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS. #58

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2007/

AVIATION...
630 PM...
FOCUS FOR THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE IS ONGOING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. AT
2330Z...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALREADY PUSHING THROUGH THE ACT
TERMINAL. SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ESTIMATED TO CONTINUE THROUGH 03Z
AT ACT...DUE TO REDEVELOPMENT TO THE SOUTHWEST.

FOR THE METROPLEX...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL TARRANT COUNTY
ARE MOVING DIRECTLY TOWARD THE DFW AREA. FREQUENT LIGHTNING...WINDS
IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...AND QUARTER HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED. THERE IS
ALSO A BOUNDARY PUSHING NORTHWARD ACROSS TARRANT AND DALLAS
COUNTIES. FUNNEL CLOUDS AND A BRIEF TORNADO SPIN UP CANNOT BE RULED
OUT. EXPECT THE HEAVY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO LAST AROUND ONE HOUR.
AFTER 01Z...LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN...WITH SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER
WILL BE COMMON. SEE AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING OVER SW TEXAS
IN ASSOCIATION WITH ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE. ANOTHER MCS WILL
LIKELY MOVE THROUGH THE ACT AND METROPLEX TERMINALS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
STRATUS MAY DEVELOP AFTER 09Z AND LINGER THROUGH THE MID MORNING
HOURS. CUMULUS WILL BUILD IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WILL LEAVE MENTION OF
AFTERNOON RA/TSRA OUT OF TAFS AT THIS TIME.

SCHULTZ

DISCUSSION...

AVIATION UPDATE...
430 PM...
AMENDED METROPLEX TAFS TO INCLUDE ONSET OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. EXTRAPOLATION OF CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGESTS SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL BE IN THE DFW TRACON AREA BY 23Z...WITH HEAVY
THUNDERSTORMS BY 01Z. AT THIS TIME...THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO PERSIST FOR ONE HOUR...WITH LIGHT RAIN CONTINUING THROUGH 04Z.
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY MVFR CIGS AS QUICK GLANCE AT 925MB RH FIELDS
SUGGEST INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TOWARD DAWN.
HOWEVER...MAIN FOCUS OF AMENDMENT WAS ON THE FIRST 6 HOURS. WILL
AMEND FURTHER IF NEEDED...AND WILL LIKELY BE ISSUING AWW.

FOR ACT...WILL LET CURRENT TAFS GO AT THIS TIME...BUT MAY AMEND
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO IF NEEDED. LOOKS LIKE PRECIP WILL HOLD
OFF FOR A WHILE AT ACT.

SCHULTZ

PREV DISCUSSION...
400 PM CDT
MCS CONTINUES RACING EASTWARD...OUTER FRINGES NOW IMPACTING WESTERN
PORTIONS OF CWA. TORNADO WATCH ISSUED EARLIER...NEWEST WATCH
INCLUDES ALL OF CWA GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20. THIS IS THE
SAME AREA THAT SAW A HEALTHY DOUSING OF RAIN YESTERDAY...SO HAVE
ISSUED FFA FOR EVENING/OVERNIGHT FOR MOST AREAS SOUTH OF I-20
CORRIDOR. HEAVIEST RAIN WILL LIKELY BE ASSOCIATED WITH INTENSE
CONVECTION NOW HEADING INTO SW ZONES. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO SCOUR
CWA OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

DESPITE SPEED OF MCS...MAIN SHORTWAVE PROGRESSING MORE SLOWLY THAN
PREVIOUS DAY. WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND PERSISTENT WARM ADVECTION...
HIGH POPS WILL BE CARRIED THROUGH THURSDAY...BOTH WITH ANY
LINGERING MORNING ACTIVITY FROM NOCTURNAL CONVECTION AS WELL AS
REDEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY.

AFTER SHORTWAVE EXITS...RIDGING WILL DOMINATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS SEASON. STILL BELIEVE
CAPPING WILL PREVENT MUCH CONVECTION EARLY IN THE WEEK...BUT
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH EVOLUTION OF UPPER LOW. 25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  63  78  65  89  69 / 100  60  10  10   0
WACO, TX              64  80  65  89  71 / 100  60  10  10   0
PARIS, TX             63  77  63  86  66 / 100  60  30  10   0
DENTON, TX            63  78  65  89  70 / 100  60  10  10   0
MCKINNEY, TX          62  78  64  87  68 / 100  60  10  10   0
DALLAS, TX            63  78  66  88  72 / 100  60  10  10   0
TERRELL, TX           64  78  65  87  69 / 100  60  10  10   0
CORSICANA, TX         64  79  66  87  70 / 100  60  10  10   0
TEMPLE, TX            65  81  65  89  69 / 100  60  10  10   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ129-130-132-135-141>148-156>162-174-175.

&&

99/58

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
910 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2007

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-031945-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-
NAVARRO-FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-
LIMESTONE-LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
910 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT TONIGHT...ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
CISCO...GRANBURY...HILLSBORO...CORSICANA...ATHENS LINE...DUE TO
RECENT...HEAVY RAINS ACROSS THIS AREA.

SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...PRIMARILY ALONG AND EAST OF A SHERMAN TO PALESTINE TO
KILLEEN LINE. WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
QUARTERS...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...ANOTHER COMPLEX OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...HAIL
TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS...AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
SCATTERED...NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS...WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH THE GREATEST RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER BEING OVER
SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE REGION. ACTIVITY SHOULD SLOWLY TAPER OFF IN
THE AFTERNOON...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES SHIFTS EAST AWAY FROM
THE AREA BY THURSDAY EVENING.

LOW CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO FAR WESTERN SECTIONS OF
NORTH TEXAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN OVER THE REMAINDER
OF NORTH TEXAS MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WHEN ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
DEEPENS OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES ONCE AGAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTION
OF THE OUTLOOK AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT. SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE
NEEDED OVER ALL OF NORTH TEXAS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SCHULTZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
926 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2007

TXZ146-147-159>162-175-030300-
NAVARRO TX-FREESTONE TX-MCLENNAN TX-LIMESTONE TX-LEON TX-FALLS TX-
ROBERTSON TX-
926 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTHEASTERN FALLS COUNTY
  WESTERN FREESTONE COUNTY
  LIMESTONE COUNTY
  NORTHEASTERN MCLENNAN COUNTY
  SOUTH CENTRAL NAVARRO COUNTY
  WESTERN LEON COUNTY
  ROBERTSON COUNTY

AT 926 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 10 MILES NORTHEAST
OF BELLMEAD TO 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF HEARNE...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE ANGUS...BREMOND...
COOLIDGE...DAWSON...FRANKLIN...GROESBECK...HALLSBURG...MART...
MEXIA...TEAGUE...WORTHAM AND FORT PARKER STATE PARK.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...PEA-SIZED
HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THESE STORMS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT WEDNESDAY EVENING
FOR EASTERN TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3176 9709 3084 9657 3109 9594 3203 9641

07/BB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
942 PM CDT WED MAY 02 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0755 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 SW MCKINNEY           33.16N  96.70W
05/02/2007                   COLLIN             TX   PUBLIC

            TREES WITH 6 DIAMETER TRUNKSDOWN AND SMALLER BRANCHES.
	    POWER OUT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
946 PM CDT WED MAY 02 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SE GRANDVIEW          32.26N  97.17W
05/02/2007                   JOHNSON            TX   PUBLIC

            SEVERAL LARGE TREES DOWN. MINOR ROOF DAMAGE TO SEVERAL
            BUILDINGS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1006 PM CDT WED MAY 02 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     TSTM WND DMG     GRAND PRAIRIE           32.69N  97.02W
05/02/2007                   DALLAS             TX   PUBLIC

            FENCES BLOWN DOWN AND DAMAGE TO SEVERAL ROOFS ON HOMES.
            NUMEROUS SHINGLES MISSING AND WINDOWS BROKEN BY FLYING
            DEBRIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1008 PM CDT WED MAY 02 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0917 PM     HAIL             ROCKDALE                30.66N  97.01W
05/02/2007  E1.50 INCH       MILAM              TX   PUBLIC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1018 PM CDT WED MAY 02 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     LIGHTNING        HALLSBURG               31.55N  96.95W
05/02/2007                   MCLENNAN           TX   BROADCAST MEDIA

            *** 1 FATAL *** 1 PERSON KILLED BY LIGHTNING NORTH OF
            HALLSURG AT TRADINGHOUSE CREEK RESERVOIR.