River Flood Warning 197, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
625 AM CDT FRI JUL 6 2007

.AVIATION...
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION SITTING JUST TO THE EAST OF THE METROPLEX WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS ROTATING AROUND.  CIGS ARE HOLDING AROUND IFR THIS
MORNING...WITH SOME TEMPO LIFR FOR AFW/FTW POSSIBLE.  PERIODS OF
RAIN POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES THIS MORNING WITH IFR VSBYS IN THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS.  RAIN SHOULD DIMINISH BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS LOW
PULLS AWAY AND SOME DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.
WILL SHOW LIFTING CIGS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH VFR BY MID
AFTERNOON.  WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WACO...HAVE VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY N/NE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

TR.92

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AT 0830Z...THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WAS MOVING ACROSS VAN ZANDT
COUNTY. THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BECOME VERY DISORGANIZED
AND DIFFICULT TO PICK OUT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD PRECIP WAS NOTED FROM PARIS TO ATHENS...WITH A LINE OF
TRAILING TSRA EXTENDING FROM PALESTINE TO SOUTHWEST OF SAN
ANTONIO. WARM RAIN PROCESSES HAVE BEEN AT WORK OVER OUR EASTERN
CWA...EVIDENCED BY VERY LITTLE LIGHTNING AND SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
TOTALS. KFWS HAS BEEN UNDERESTIMATING...EVEN IN TROPICAL Z/R.

MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP SHOULD BE ALONG THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
PERIPHERIES OF THE LOW PRESSURE AREA...AS HAS BEEN THE TREND THIS
MORNING. WE HAVE TRIMMED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM AREAS ALONG
AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 35...INCLUDING THE DFW METROPLEX. MOST
LIKELY AREAS TO EXPERIENCE HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY WILL BE GENERALLY
WHERE PRECIP IS ONGOING THIS MORNING...ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE
FROM BONHAM TO CAMERON. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON WEST OF INTERSTATE 35...WITH THE AFTERNOON
HEATING AND INSTABILITY. ALTHOUGH ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD PRODUCE
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AND RESULT IN NUISANCE FLOODING...THE
FLASH FLOODING THREAT WEST OF I-35 WILL BE VERY ISOLATED.

OUR CIRCULATION WILL CONTINUE ITS TREK INTO THE ARKLATEX THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...THE GFS /SUPPORTED BY THE
CANADIAN/ DRIFTS A COMPACT MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE NORTHWARD FROM
MEXICO. THIS IS VALIDATED BY THE 00HR RUC ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR
INDICATING A SHORTWAVE/WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH
TAMAULIPAS IN NORTHERN MEXICO AT THE PRESENT TIME.

MID LEVEL TROF AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
INTO THE TX PANHANDLE WILL KEEP THE MAIN INFLUENCES OF THE
APPROACHING DISTURBANCE FROM SAN ANTONIO TO HOUSTON...BUT OUR
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST ZONES WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/T-STORMS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

OTHERWISE...DIURNAL T-STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MON-WED...WITH
UNSETTLED FLOW /PARADE OF SUBTLE VORT LOBES/ AND LOW LEVEL
TRAJECTORIES REMAINING STRAIGHT OFF THE GULF.

WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATE WEEK PERIODS. NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SEVERAL DISTURBANCES TO DROP THROUGH THE
FLOW INTO THE CENTRAL...OR SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS. QUESTIONS STILL
REMAIN ON TIMING AND LOCATION OF THESE SHORTWAVES. GIVEN THE GFS
AT FACE VALUE...T-STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND S/WV APPROACHING THE RED RIVER THURS INTO FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL UNDOUBTEDLY CHANGE.

TEMPERATURE WISE...HIGHS WILL BE ON THE UPWARD TREND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS RAIN COVERAGE DIMINISHES AND CLOUD COVER BECOMES
SCATTERED. EXPECT TEMPS TO RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS /LOW TO
MID 90S/ BY MONDAY.

SCHULTZ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  86  70  91  73  90 /  40  20  20  10  20
WACO, TX              85  70  90  72  88 /  40  30  30  30  30
PARIS, TX             82  71  91  71  91 /  90  30  10  10  20
DENTON, TX            86  70  91  71  91 /  40  20  20  10  20
MCKINNEY, TX          86  70  91  71  91 /  60  20  20  10  20
DALLAS, TX            87  72  92  75  90 /  50  20  20  10  20
TERRELL, TX           84  70  91  71  90 /  70  30  20  10  20
CORSICANA, TX         84  70  90  72  88 /  70  40  30  20  30
TEMPLE, TX            84  70  90  72  87 /  40  40  30  30  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ094-095-105>107-121>123-135-146>148-160>162-174-175.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
521 AM CDT FRI JUL 6 2007

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-071030-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-
NAVARRO-FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-
LIMESTONE-LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
521 AM CDT FRI JUL 6 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF A
BONHAM TO CAMERON LINE THROUGH THIS EVENING. IN THESE
AREAS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
RAINFALL LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TODAY. RAINFALL
RATES MAY EXCEED 1 INCH PER HOUR IN SOME AREAS. 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE WATCH AREA...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN TEXAS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. AREAS SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE
20 CORRIDOR WILL HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

THUNDERSTORMS TRIGGERED BY AFTERNOON HEATING WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
A DAILY BASIS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED TODAY...GENERALLY EAST
OF INTERSTATE 35.

SCHULTZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
519 AM CDT FRI JUL 06 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0345 AM     FLASH FLOOD      POINT                   32.93N  95.87W
07/06/2007                   RAINS              TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TWO COUNTY ROADS REMAIN IMPASSIBLE. UNCOMFIRMED REPORT
            OF VEHICLE SWEPT INTO A CREEK.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
521 AM CDT FRI JUL 06 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0450 AM     FLASH FLOOD      10 E CENTERVILLE        31.26N  95.81W
07/06/2007                   LEON               TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TXDOT HAS CLOSED CR 542 AT UPPER KEECHI CREEK DUE TO
            HIGH WATER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
649 AM CDT FRI JUL 06 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 AM     FLASH FLOOD      EMORY                   32.88N  95.77W
07/06/2007                   RAINS              TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERAL COUNTY ROADS FLOODED AND UNDER WATER.

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