Flash Flood Warning 346, NWS Fort Worth, TX

000 
WGUS74 KFWD 061238
FFSFWD

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
738 AM CDT FRI JUL 6 2007

TXC213-467-061330-
VAN ZANDT TX-HENDERSON TX-
738 AM CDT FRI JUL 6 2007

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 830 AM CDT FOR
HENDERSON AND VAN ZANDT COUNTIES...

AT 737 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED 
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN NEAR GUN BARREL CITY AND CEDAR CREEK 
RESERVOIR. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WAS ALSO DETECTED WEST OF CANTON. 
PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN EXTENDED ACROSS CENTRAL VAN ZANDT AND EASTERN 
HENDERSON COUNTIES. THE RAIN WAS SHOWING LITTLE MOVEMENT.

RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH PER HOUR IS LIKELY WITH THE HEAVIER 
RAIN AREAS. THIS WILL AGGRAVATE THE FLOODING SITUATION. FLOODING HAS 
BEEN REPORTED IN THE PAYNE SPRINGS AREA EARLIER THIS MORNING...WITH 
AT LEAST ONE BRIDGE REPORTED WASHED OUT.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS 
SAFELY. REMEMBER...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

LAT...LON 3284 9609 3236 9606 3236 9644 3219 9614
      3202 9605 3208 9543 3270 9561 3275 9581
      3284 9594

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
346 AM CDT FRI JUL 6 2007

.DISCUSSION...
AT 0830Z...THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WAS MOVING ACROSS VAN ZANDT
COUNTY. THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BECOME VERY DISORGANIZED
AND DIFFICULT TO PICK OUT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD PRECIP WAS NOTED FROM PARIS TO ATHENS...WITH A LINE OF
TRAILING TSRA EXTENDING FROM PALESTINE TO SOUTHWEST OF SAN
ANTONIO. WARM RAIN PROCESSES HAVE BEEN AT WORK OVER OUR EASTERN
CWA...EVIDENCED BY VERY LITTLE LIGHTNING AND SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
TOTALS. KFWS HAS BEEN UNDERESTIMATING...EVEN IN TROPICAL Z/R.

MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP SHOULD BE ALONG THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
PERIPHERIES OF THE LOW PRESSURE AREA...AS HAS BEEN THE TREND THIS
MORNING. WE HAVE TRIMMED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM AREAS ALONG
AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 35...INCLUDING THE DFW METROPLEX. MOST
LIKELY AREAS TO EXPERIENCE HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY WILL BE GENERALLY
WHERE PRECIP IS ONGOING THIS MORNING...ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE
FROM BONHAM TO CAMERON. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON WEST OF INTERSTATE 35...WITH THE AFTERNOON
HEATING AND INSTABILITY. ALTHOUGH ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD PRODUCE
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AND RESULT IN NUISANCE FLOODING...THE
FLASH FLOODING THREAT WEST OF I-35 WILL BE VERY ISOLATED.

OUR CIRCULATION WILL CONTINUE ITS TREK INTO THE ARKLATEX THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...THE GFS /SUPPORTED BY THE
CANADIAN/ DRIFTS A COMPACT MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE NORTHWARD FROM
MEXICO. THIS IS VALIDATED BY THE 00HR RUC ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR
INDICATING A SHORTWAVE/WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH
TAMAULIPAS IN NORTHERN MEXICO AT THE PRESENT TIME.

MID LEVEL TROF AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
INTO THE TX PANHANDLE WILL KEEP THE MAIN INFLUENCES OF THE
APPROACHING DISTURBANCE FROM SAN ANTONIO TO HOUSTON...BUT OUR
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST ZONES WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/T-STORMS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

OTHERWISE...DIURNAL T-STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MON-WED...WITH
UNSETTLED FLOW /PARADE OF SUBTLE VORT LOBES/ AND LOW LEVEL
TRAJECTORIES REMAINING STRAIGHT OFF THE GULF.

WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATE WEEK PERIODS. NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SEVERAL DISTURBANCES TO DROP THROUGH THE
FLOW INTO THE CENTRAL...OR SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS. QUESTIONS STILL
REMAIN ON TIMING AND LOCATION OF THESE SHORTWAVES. GIVEN THE GFS
AT FACE VALUE...T-STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND S/WV APPROACHING THE RED RIVER THURS INTO FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL UNDOUBTEDLY CHANGE.

TEMPERATURE WISE...HIGHS WILL BE ON THE UPWARD TREND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS RAIN COVERAGE DIMINISHES AND CLOUD COVER BECOMES
SCATTERED. EXPECT TEMPS TO RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS /LOW TO
MID 90S/ BY MONDAY.

SCHULTZ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  86  70  91  73  90 /  40  20  20  10  20
WACO, TX              85  70  90  72  88 /  40  30  30  30  30
PARIS, TX             82  71  91  71  91 /  90  30  10  10  20
DENTON, TX            86  70  91  71  91 /  40  20  20  10  20
MCKINNEY, TX          86  70  91  71  91 /  60  20  20  10  20
DALLAS, TX            87  72  92  75  90 /  50  20  20  10  20
TERRELL, TX           84  70  91  71  90 /  70  30  20  10  20
CORSICANA, TX         84  70  90  72  88 /  70  40  30  20  30
TEMPLE, TX            84  70  90  72  87 /  40  40  30  30  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ094-095-105>107-121>123-135-146>148-160>162-174-175.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
521 AM CDT FRI JUL 6 2007

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-071030-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-
NAVARRO-FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-
LIMESTONE-LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
521 AM CDT FRI JUL 6 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF A
BONHAM TO CAMERON LINE THROUGH THIS EVENING. IN THESE
AREAS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
RAINFALL LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TODAY. RAINFALL
RATES MAY EXCEED 1 INCH PER HOUR IN SOME AREAS. 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE WATCH AREA...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN TEXAS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. AREAS SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE
20 CORRIDOR WILL HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

THUNDERSTORMS TRIGGERED BY AFTERNOON HEATING WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
A DAILY BASIS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED TODAY...GENERALLY EAST
OF INTERSTATE 35.

SCHULTZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
158 AM CDT FRI JUL 06 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0157 AM     FLASH FLOOD      9 SW EMORY              32.78N  95.88W
07/06/2007                   VAN ZANDT          TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            FM1325 FLOODED NEAR FLATT...SW OF EMORY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
207 AM CDT FRI JUL 06 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0206 AM     FLASH FLOOD      12 NE CENTERVILLE       31.38N  95.83W
07/06/2007                   LEON               TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            FM542 AT KEECHI CREEK IS FLOODED. CREEKS IS FLOODING THE
            ROAD.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
515 AM CDT FRI JUL 06 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0345 AM     FLASH FLOOD      PAYNE SPRINGS           32.28N  96.09W
07/06/2007                   HENDERSON          TX   PUBLIC

            WIDESPREAD FLOODING. 15 FT DEEP 20 FT WIDE SINKHOLE.
            BRIDGE OUT ON CEDAR OAKS DRIVE TRAPPING 20-30 HOUSEHOLDS.
            BRIDGE WASHED OUT. 6 INCHES OF RAIN RECEIVED OVERNIGHT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
516 AM CDT FRI JUL 06 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0515 AM     FLASH FLOOD      CANTON                  32.55N  95.86W
07/06/2007                   VAN ZANDT          TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERAL ROADS REMAIN FLOODED AND IMPASSIBLE ALL ACROSS
            COUNTY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
519 AM CDT FRI JUL 06 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0345 AM     FLASH FLOOD      POINT                   32.93N  95.87W
07/06/2007                   RAINS              TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TWO COUNTY ROADS REMAIN IMPASSIBLE. UNCOMFIRMED REPORT
            OF VEHICLE SWEPT INTO A CREEK.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
521 AM CDT FRI JUL 06 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0450 AM     FLASH FLOOD      10 E CENTERVILLE        31.26N  95.81W
07/06/2007                   LEON               TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TXDOT HAS CLOSED CR 542 AT UPPER KEECHI CREEK DUE TO
            HIGH WATER