Flash Flood Warning 344, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
346 AM CDT FRI JUL 6 2007

.DISCUSSION...
AT 0830Z...THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WAS MOVING ACROSS VAN ZANDT
COUNTY. THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BECOME VERY DISORGANIZED
AND DIFFICULT TO PICK OUT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD PRECIP WAS NOTED FROM PARIS TO ATHENS...WITH A LINE OF
TRAILING TSRA EXTENDING FROM PALESTINE TO SOUTHWEST OF SAN
ANTONIO. WARM RAIN PROCESSES HAVE BEEN AT WORK OVER OUR EASTERN
CWA...EVIDENCED BY VERY LITTLE LIGHTNING AND SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
TOTALS. KFWS HAS BEEN UNDERESTIMATING...EVEN IN TROPICAL Z/R.

MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP SHOULD BE ALONG THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
PERIPHERIES OF THE LOW PRESSURE AREA...AS HAS BEEN THE TREND THIS
MORNING. WE HAVE TRIMMED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM AREAS ALONG
AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 35...INCLUDING THE DFW METROPLEX. MOST
LIKELY AREAS TO EXPERIENCE HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY WILL BE GENERALLY
WHERE PRECIP IS ONGOING THIS MORNING...ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE
FROM BONHAM TO CAMERON. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON WEST OF INTERSTATE 35...WITH THE AFTERNOON
HEATING AND INSTABILITY. ALTHOUGH ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD PRODUCE
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AND RESULT IN NUISANCE FLOODING...THE
FLASH FLOODING THREAT WEST OF I-35 WILL BE VERY ISOLATED.

OUR CIRCULATION WILL CONTINUE ITS TREK INTO THE ARKLATEX THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...THE GFS /SUPPORTED BY THE
CANADIAN/ DRIFTS A COMPACT MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE NORTHWARD FROM
MEXICO. THIS IS VALIDATED BY THE 00HR RUC ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR
INDICATING A SHORTWAVE/WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH
TAMAULIPAS IN NORTHERN MEXICO AT THE PRESENT TIME.

MID LEVEL TROF AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
INTO THE TX PANHANDLE WILL KEEP THE MAIN INFLUENCES OF THE
APPROACHING DISTURBANCE FROM SAN ANTONIO TO HOUSTON...BUT OUR
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST ZONES WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/T-STORMS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

OTHERWISE...DIURNAL T-STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MON-WED...WITH
UNSETTLED FLOW /PARADE OF SUBTLE VORT LOBES/ AND LOW LEVEL
TRAJECTORIES REMAINING STRAIGHT OFF THE GULF.

WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATE WEEK PERIODS. NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SEVERAL DISTURBANCES TO DROP THROUGH THE
FLOW INTO THE CENTRAL...OR SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS. QUESTIONS STILL
REMAIN ON TIMING AND LOCATION OF THESE SHORTWAVES. GIVEN THE GFS
AT FACE VALUE...T-STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND S/WV APPROACHING THE RED RIVER THURS INTO FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL UNDOUBTEDLY CHANGE.

TEMPERATURE WISE...HIGHS WILL BE ON THE UPWARD TREND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS RAIN COVERAGE DIMINISHES AND CLOUD COVER BECOMES
SCATTERED. EXPECT TEMPS TO RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS /LOW TO
MID 90S/ BY MONDAY.

SCHULTZ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  86  70  91  73  90 /  40  20  20  10  20
WACO, TX              85  70  90  72  88 /  40  30  30  30  30
PARIS, TX             82  71  91  71  91 /  90  30  10  10  20
DENTON, TX            86  70  91  71  91 /  40  20  20  10  20
MCKINNEY, TX          86  70  91  71  91 /  60  20  20  10  20
DALLAS, TX            87  72  92  75  90 /  50  20  20  10  20
TERRELL, TX           84  70  91  71  90 /  70  30  20  10  20
CORSICANA, TX         84  70  90  72  88 /  70  40  30  20  30
TEMPLE, TX            84  70  90  72  87 /  40  40  30  30  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ094-095-105>107-121>123-135-146>148-160>162-174-175.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH TEXAS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
827 PM CDT THU JUL 5 2007

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-061000-
ANDERSON-BELL-BOSQUE-COLLIN-COMANCHE-COOKE-CORYELL-DALLAS-DELTA-
DENTON-EASTLAND-ELLIS-ERATH-FALLS-FANNIN-FREESTONE-GRAYSON-HAMILTON-
HENDERSON-HILL-HOOD-HOPKINS-HUNT-JACK-JOHNSON-KAUFMAN-LAMAR-LAMPASAS-
LEON-LIMESTONE-MCLENNAN-MILAM-MILLS-MONTAGUE-NAVARRO-PALO PINTO-
PARKER-RAINS-ROBERTSON-ROCKWALL-SOMERVELL-STEPHENS-TARRANT-VAN ZANDT-
WISE-YOUNG-
827 PM CDT THU JUL 5 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NORTH TEXAS
TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE QUITE
ACTIVE EAST OF I-35 OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
PARTICULARLY EAST OF A BONHAM TO CENTERVILLE LINE.  OVERNIGHT RAIN
AMOUNTS UP TO 2 INCHES WITH ISOLATED POCKETS AROUND 3 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE. CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE A THREAT NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL
OF NORTH TEXAS FRIDAY.

ALTHOUGH THE COVERAGE OF RAIN ACTIVITY WILL BE MUCH LESS THIS WEEKEND
AND NEXT WEEK...INDIVIDUAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED OVER NIGHT...
GENERALLY EAST OF I 35.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1221 AM CDT FRI JUL 06 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1215 AM     FLASH FLOOD      ATHENS                  32.20N  95.86W
07/06/2007                   HENDERSON          TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERAL ROADS FLOODED ACROSS THE COUNTY (HWY 175,
            HWY31@FM3441 CLOSED,FM59 NEAR ATHENS...ETC)

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1251 AM CDT FRI JUL 06 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1250 AM     FLASH FLOOD      2 W GREENVILLE          33.12N  96.14W
07/06/2007                   HUNT               TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HWY 380 CLOSED 2 W OF GREENVILLE. HAWK COVE (BTWN
            QUINLAN/W TAWAKONI) HAS FLOODING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
110 AM CDT FRI JUL 06 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0109 AM     FLASH FLOOD      PALESTINE               31.76N  95.65W
07/06/2007                   ANDERSON           TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERAL ROADS AND HWYS CLOSED. A FEW BRIDGES ARE OUT
            ACROSS THE COUNTY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
148 AM CDT FRI JUL 06 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0142 AM     FLASH FLOOD      10 SSW CANTON           32.41N  95.93W
07/06/2007                   VAN ZANDT          TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            PARTS OF FM1256 AND FM1861 FLOODED. SO COULDNT DENOTE
            SPECIFIC LOCALES ATTM.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
158 AM CDT FRI JUL 06 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0157 AM     FLASH FLOOD      9 SW EMORY              32.78N  95.88W
07/06/2007                   VAN ZANDT          TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            FM1325 FLOODED NEAR FLATT...SW OF EMORY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
207 AM CDT FRI JUL 06 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0206 AM     FLASH FLOOD      12 NE CENTERVILLE       31.38N  95.83W
07/06/2007                   LEON               TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            FM542 AT KEECHI CREEK IS FLOODED. CREEKS IS FLOODING THE
            ROAD.