Flash Flood Warning 299, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1245 PM CDT TUE JUL 3 2007

.1245 PM AVIATION UPDATE...
LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS DAYS.

THE UPPER LOW...WHICH MOVED FROM NORTH TEXAS TO NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA...AND BACK AGAIN TO THE SOUTH...IS ON ITS WAY TO THE DEL
RIO AREA...AND EVENTUALLY SOMEWHERE SOUTH OF THE BIG BEND. NEVERTHELESS
...DUE TO RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL FORCING...
DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH JULY THE 4TH
AND THE REST OF THE WEEK. MOST OF THE STORMS WILL DISSIPATE IN THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. LOW STRATUS CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE DURING THE
MORNING HOURS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  #26

&&

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAF CYCLE/
SHORT TERM FORECAST FOCUS REVOLVES AROUND VERY LOW CEILINGS ACROSS
THE AREA. IFR CIGS /500 TO 1000FT/ CAN BE EXPECTED AT THE METROPLEX
TAF SITES THROUGH 14Z. EVEN ACT HAS SHOWN A LOWERING TREND IN
CLOUD DECKS...AND NEARBY SITES INCLUDING GATESVILLE...TEMPLE...AND
HILLSBORO ARE REPORTING MUCH LOWER CLOUD COVER THAN ACT.

OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST. TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TAF SITES HAVE NOT SEEN MUCH IN THE
WAY OF RAINFALL AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS...SO
WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION OF PRECIP AFTER SUNDOWN IN THIS TAF
PACKAGE. WILL ALSO INTRODUCE MVFR CIGS AFTER 08Z...WHICH MAY NEED
TO BE LOWERED INTO IFR CAT...AS EXTREMELY SATURATED GROUND AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT.

SCHULTZ

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 AM CDT TUE JUL 3 2007/

CLIMATE...
THROUGH MONDAY JULY 2ND 2007...DALLAS FORT WORTH AIRPORT HAS HAD
EIGHT CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH MEASURABLE RAINFALL. THE RECORD FOR THE
MOST CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL FOR THE OFFICIAL DALLAS
FORT WORTH SITE IS 10 DAYS. THIS HAS HAPPENED TWICE...APRIL
10-19...1908 AND FEBRUARY 13-22...1932.

THE RAINFALL FOR MONDAY JULY 2ND 2007 AT WACO IS LISTED AS MISSING
IN THE WACO CLIMATE REPORT...FTWCLIACT. WE ATTEMPT TO GET DATA
FROM THE BACKUP LATER THIS MORNING AND THEN SEND A CORRECTED CLIMATE
REPORT.   #58

DISCUSSION...
414 AM CDT TUE JUL 3 2007
SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW THAT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS CENTERED WEST
OF BROWNWOOD AS OF 08Z. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWEST
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND WITH THE HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. GIVEN THE SATURATED GROUND...WE WILL KEEP THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
INDEPENDENCE DAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO SINK
SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER THURSDAY BEFORE BECOMING STATIONARY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS FRONT WILL THEN LIFT
BACK TO THE NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND. HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS FOR MOST
OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO SATURDAY...AND THEN JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE
AFTERWARD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THEN START TO CLIMB BACK CLOSER TO
NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND AS RAIN CHANCES START TO DECREASE. #58

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  86  73  86  73  88 /  80  60  60  50  50
WACO, TX              87  74  85  72  90 /  80  80  70  60  50
PARIS, TX             84  72  83  71  87 /  80  70  60  40  60
DENTON, TX            85  72  86  70  89 /  80  50  60  40  50
MCKINNEY, TX          85  71  86  70  89 /  80  60  60  40  50
DALLAS, TX            86  73  86  73  88 /  80  70  60  50  50
TERRELL, TX           85  72  85  72  87 /  80  70  60  50  60
CORSICANA, TX         86  73  85  71  88 /  80  80  70  60  60
TEMPLE, TX            87  73  85  71  88 /  80  90  70  60  50

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES:
TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.

&&

SCHULTZ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
358 AM CDT TUE JUL 3 2007

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-040900-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-
NAVARRO-FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-
LIMESTONE-LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
358 AM CDT TUE JUL 3 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NORTH TEXAS. MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TODAY...PRODUCING VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL QUICKLY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. THE STRONGEST
STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
DAILY THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE GREATEST CHANCES WILL BE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED.

SCHULTZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
839 AM CDT TUE JUL 03 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0818 AM     FLASH FLOOD      GREENVILLE              33.12N  96.10W
07/03/2007                   HUNT               TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WIDESPREAD STREET FLOODING IN GREENVILLE...HIGHWAY 69 SE
            OF GREENVILLE ALSO FLOODED

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
840 AM CDT TUE JUL 03 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0817 AM     FLASH FLOOD      6 SW EMORY              32.81N  95.84W
07/03/2007                   RAINS              TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            FARM ROAD 47 NEAR LAKE TAWAKONI FLOODED...MANY COUNTY
            ROADS ALSO FLOODED

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
948 AM CDT TUE JUL 03 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0942 AM     FLASH FLOOD      MESQUITE                32.77N  96.60W
07/03/2007                   DALLAS             TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            STREET FLOODING AND VEHICLES STRANDED

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1157 AM CDT TUE JUL 3 2007

TXZ146-031730-
NAVARRO TX-
1157 AM CDT TUE JUL 3 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  CENTRAL NAVARRO COUNTY

AT 1157 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 13 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CORSICANA...MOVING NORTH AT
10 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE ANGUS...CORSICANA AND
NAVARRO.

VERY HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM.

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS
DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS AS THEY MAY BE WASHED OUT.

LAT...LON 3185 9643 3187 9622 3216 9624 3213 9650

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
135 PM CDT TUE JUL 3 2007

TXZ147-031900-
FREESTONE TX-
135 PM CDT TUE JUL 3 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  FREESTONE COUNTY

AT 135 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL 12 MILES NORTHEAST OF
FAIRFIELD...MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH. RAINFALL ESTIMATES UP TO 2
INCHES HAS FALLEN AROUND FAIRFIELD LAKE AND IN THE RECREATIONAL
AREA. THE HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO AFFECT YOUNG...SAINT
ELMO...INTERSTATE 45 NORTH OF FAIRFIELD AND THE RICHLAND CHAMBERS
DAM AREA THROUGH 215 PM. BESIDE THE RAIN...CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
WILL BE  A HAZARD.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE FAIRFIELD...TEAGUE...WORTHAM
AND FAIRFIELD LAKE STATE PARK.

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS
DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS AS THEY MAY BE WASHED OUT.

LAT...LON 3145 9624 3164 9580 3201 9606 3180 9649