Flash Flood Warning 292, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
611 AM CDT TUE JUL 3 2007

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAF CYCLE/
SHORT TERM FORECAST FOCUS REVOLVES AROUND VERY LOW CEILINGS ACROSS
THE AREA. IFR CIGS /500 TO 1000FT/ CAN BE EXPECTED AT THE METROPLEX
TAF SITES THROUGH 14Z. EVEN ACT HAS SHOWN A LOWERING TREND IN
CLOUD DECKS...AND NEARBY SITES INCLUDING GATESVILLE...TEMPLE...AND
HILLSBORO ARE REPORTING MUCH LOWER CLOUD COVER THAN ACT.

OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST. TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TAF SITES HAVE NOT SEEN MUCH IN THE
WAY OF RAINFALL AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS...SO
WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION OF PRECIP AFTER SUNDOWN IN THIS TAF
PACKAGE. WILL ALSO INTRODUCE MVFR CIGS AFTER 08Z...WHICH MAY NEED
TO BE LOWERED INTO IFR CAT...AS EXTREMELY SATURATED GROUND AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT.

SCHULTZ

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 AM CDT TUE JUL 3 2007/

CLIMATE...
THROUGH MONDAY JULY 2ND 2007...DALLAS FORT WORTH AIRPORT HAS HAD
EIGHT CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH MEASURABLE RAINFALL. THE RECORD FOR THE
MOST CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL FOR THE OFFICIAL DALLAS
FORT WORTH SITE IS 10 DAYS. THIS HAS HAPPENED TWICE...APRIL
10-19...1908 AND FEBRUARY 13-22...1932.

THE RAINFALL FOR MONDAY JULY 2ND 2007 AT WACO IS LISTED AS MISSING
IN THE WACO CLIMATE REPORT...FTWCLIACT. WE ATTEMPT TO GET DATA
FROM THE BACKUP LATER THIS MORNING AND THEN SEND A CORRECTED CLIMATE
REPORT.   #58

DISCUSSION...
414 AM CDT TUE JUL 3 2007
SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW THAT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS CENTERED WEST
OF BROWNWOOD AS OF 08Z. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWEST
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND WITH THE HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. GIVEN THE SATURATED GROUND...WE WILL KEEP THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
INDEPENDENCE DAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO SINK
SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER THURSDAY BEFORE BECOMING STATIONARY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS FRONT WILL THEN LIFT
BACK TO THE NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND. HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS FOR MOST
OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO SATURDAY...AND THEN JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE
AFTERWARDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THEN START TO CLIMB BACK CLOSER TO
NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND AS RAIN CHANCES START TO DECREASE. #58

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  86  73  86  73  88 /  80  60  60  50  50
WACO, TX              87  74  85  72  90 /  80  80  70  60  50
PARIS, TX             84  72  83  71  87 /  80  70  60  40  60
DENTON, TX            85  72  86  70  89 /  80  50  60  40  50
MCKINNEY, TX          85  71  86  70  89 /  80  60  60  40  50
DALLAS, TX            86  73  86  73  88 /  80  70  60  50  50
TERRELL, TX           85  72  85  72  87 /  80  70  60  50  60
CORSICANA, TX         86  73  85  71  88 /  80  80  70  60  60
TEMPLE, TX            87  73  85  71  88 /  80  90  70  60  50

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES:
TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.

&&

SCHULTZ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
358 AM CDT TUE JUL 3 2007

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-040900-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-
NAVARRO-FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-
LIMESTONE-LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
358 AM CDT TUE JUL 3 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NORTH TEXAS. MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TODAY...PRODUCING VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL QUICKLY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. THE STRONGEST
STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
DAILY THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE GREATEST CHANCES WILL BE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED.

SCHULTZ