Flash Flood Warning 12, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

000 
WGUS75 KFGZ 252219
FFSFGZ

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
317 PM MST WED JUL 25 2007

AZC007-252315-
GILA AZ-
317 PM MST WED JUL 25 2007

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 PM MST FOR NORTH
CENTRAL GILA COUNTY...

AT 257 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE A THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN OVER THE AREA OF YOUNG. 
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES IN LESS THAN AN HOUR 
ARE BEING INDICATED BY THE DOPPLER RADAR.

THIS THUNDERSTORM WITH EXCESSIVE RAIN WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA OF 
YOUNG...FULTON AND HIGHWAY 288 THROUGH 4 PM MST.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

LAT...LON 3401 11105 3400 11080 3424 11083 3423 11107

$$

MCCOLLUM

000 
WGUS75 KFGZ 252317
FFSFGZ

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
410 PM MST WED JUL 25 2007

AZC007-252320-
GILA AZ-
410 PM MST WED JUL 25 2007

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 415 PM MST FOR NORTH
CENTRAL GILA COUNTY...

STORMS THAT WERE AFFECTING THE YOUNG...FULTON AND HIGHWAY 288 FROM 
YOUNG TO AROUND 10 MILES SOUTH HAVE WEAKENED AND ARE NO LONGER 
POSING A FLASH FLOOD THREAT. AREA CREEKS AND WASHES WILL STILL RUN 
FULL THROUGH 600 PM MST. IF ROADWAYS AND LOW WATER CROSSING ARE 
STILL FLOWING WITH WATER...IT WOULD BE BETTER TO WAIT UNTIL THE 
WATER RECEDES OR FIND AN ALTERNATE ROUTE. 

LAT...LON 3401 11105 3400 11080 3424 11083 3423 11107

$$
TC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
918 AM MST WED JUL 25 2007

.SYNOPSIS...A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS ARIZONA
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MORNING SOUNDINGS INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
AIRMASS SINCE YESTERDAY. DEEP MOISTURE IS PRESENT WITH MID LEVEL
FLOW OF 10-15 KT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR...120-130 PERCENT OF NORMAL. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
ACROSS CENTRAL COCONINO COUNTY SHOULD DELAY ONSET OF DEEP CONVECTION
IN THAT AREA...BUT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OVER THE YAVAPAI CO
MTNS...EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM AND MUCH OF APACHE AND NAVAJO COUNTIES
THIS MORNING POINT TO AN EARLY START. THE MAIN THREAT WITH STORMS
TODAY WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS THE STORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT
RAINFALL PRODUCERS. A FEW AREAS MAY SEE ENOUGH RAIN FOR SMALL STREAM
FLOOD ADVISORIES LATER TODAY...BUT THE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE
LOW ENOUGH THAT NO FLASH FLOOD WATCHES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME. A
FEW STORMS MAY ALSO CONTAIN HAIL AROUND A HALF INCH IN DIAMETER.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...(230 AM MST WED JUL 25)...BY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...A DEVELOPING SURGE IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL ONLY
SERVE TO INCREASE MOISTURE VALUES ACROSS THE STATE. WE WILL CONTINUE
HIGH SCATTERED TO LIKELY POPS RIGHT ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND...IF NOT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SEVEN DAY PERIOD. IT WILL BE VERY
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT UP AND DOWN DAYS IN SUCH A MOISTURE RICH
AIRMASS WITH HEAVY DEBRIS CLOUD EVERY NIGHT...SO WE WILL JUST STAY
FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THE FORECASTS THAT HAVE BEEN ISSUED OVER THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS. PETERSON.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP AFTER 18Z AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS ACCOMPANYING THE STRONGER STORMS. THE MAIN THREAT WITH
STORMS WILL BE REDUCED VISIBILITY IN HEAVY RAIN. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
CEILINGS OF 12 TO 17 KFT MSL ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

JJ / MCCOLLUM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
947 AM MST WED JUL 25 2007

AZZ004>018-037>040-260700-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-
MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-KAIBAB PLATEAU-COCONINO PLATEAU-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
CHINLE VALLEY-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
BLACK MESA AREA-LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-
947 AM MST WED JUL 25 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...NORTHERN
GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA LATE
THIS MORNING...CONTINUING THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE STORMS WILL
BE SLOW MOVING...WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING THE
MAIN THREAT. A FEW STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE HAIL AROUND A HALF
INCH IN DIAMETER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

JJ