Flash Flood Warning 11, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

000 
WGUS75 KFGZ 252236
FFSFGZ

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
327 PM MST WED JUL 25 2007

AZC025-252237-
YAVAPAI AZ-
327 PM MST WED JUL 25 2007

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 330 PM MST FOR SOUTHEASTERN
YAVAPAI COUNTY...

AT 330 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED  
THAT THE STORMS THAT WERE PRODUCING THE HEAVY RAIN IN AND AROUND THE 
BLACK CANYON CITY AREA HAVE WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY AND ARE NO LONGER 
CREATING A FLASH FLOODING THREAT. 

CREEKS AND STREAMS THAT WILL CONTINUE TO SEE HIGH FLOWS THROUGH 600 
PM MST BUT NOT LIMITED TO THE FOLLOWING SQUAW CREEK FLOWING OUT OF 
THE 2005 CAVE CREEK BURN COMPLEX. BOULDER CREEK...COTTONWOOD 
CREEK...SOUTH FORK OF ROCK CREEK...AND BUMBLE BEE CREEK TO THE WEST 
OF BLACK CANYON CITY.

MOTORIST SHOULD AVOID DRIVING THEIR VEHICLES THROUGH LOW WATER 
CROSSINGS THAT STILL HAS SWIFT WATER FLOWING ACROSS THE ROADWAY.


LAT...LON 3397 11222 3405 11214 3404 11206 3416 11172
      3434 11181 3418 11206 3429 11237 3419 11243

$$
TC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
918 AM MST WED JUL 25 2007

.SYNOPSIS...A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS ARIZONA
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MORNING SOUNDINGS INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
AIRMASS SINCE YESTERDAY. DEEP MOISTURE IS PRESENT WITH MID LEVEL
FLOW OF 10-15 KT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR...120-130 PERCENT OF NORMAL. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
ACROSS CENTRAL COCONINO COUNTY SHOULD DELAY ONSET OF DEEP CONVECTION
IN THAT AREA...BUT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OVER THE YAVAPAI CO
MTNS...EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM AND MUCH OF APACHE AND NAVAJO COUNTIES
THIS MORNING POINT TO AN EARLY START. THE MAIN THREAT WITH STORMS
TODAY WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS THE STORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT
RAINFALL PRODUCERS. A FEW AREAS MAY SEE ENOUGH RAIN FOR SMALL STREAM
FLOOD ADVISORIES LATER TODAY...BUT THE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE
LOW ENOUGH THAT NO FLASH FLOOD WATCHES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME. A
FEW STORMS MAY ALSO CONTAIN HAIL AROUND A HALF INCH IN DIAMETER.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...(230 AM MST WED JUL 25)...BY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...A DEVELOPING SURGE IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL ONLY
SERVE TO INCREASE MOISTURE VALUES ACROSS THE STATE. WE WILL CONTINUE
HIGH SCATTERED TO LIKELY POPS RIGHT ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND...IF NOT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SEVEN DAY PERIOD. IT WILL BE VERY
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT UP AND DOWN DAYS IN SUCH A MOISTURE RICH
AIRMASS WITH HEAVY DEBRIS CLOUD EVERY NIGHT...SO WE WILL JUST STAY
FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THE FORECASTS THAT HAVE BEEN ISSUED OVER THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS. PETERSON.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP AFTER 18Z AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS ACCOMPANYING THE STRONGER STORMS. THE MAIN THREAT WITH
STORMS WILL BE REDUCED VISIBILITY IN HEAVY RAIN. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
CEILINGS OF 12 TO 17 KFT MSL ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

JJ / MCCOLLUM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
947 AM MST WED JUL 25 2007

AZZ004>018-037>040-260700-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-
MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-KAIBAB PLATEAU-COCONINO PLATEAU-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
CHINLE VALLEY-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
BLACK MESA AREA-LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-
947 AM MST WED JUL 25 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...NORTHERN
GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA LATE
THIS MORNING...CONTINUING THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE STORMS WILL
BE SLOW MOVING...WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING THE
MAIN THREAT. A FEW STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE HAIL AROUND A HALF
INCH IN DIAMETER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

JJ