Flash Flood Warning 10, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

000 
WGUS75 KFGZ 252045
FFSFGZ

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
140 PM MST WED JUL 25 2007

AZC005-025-252200-
YAVAPAI AZ-COCONINO AZ-
140 PM MST WED JUL 25 2007

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM MST FOR SOUTH
CENTRAL COCONINO AND EAST CENTRAL YAVAPAI COUNTIES...

AT 134 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE A NEARLY STATIONARY THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING 
OVER THE WARNED AREA.

THIS THUNDERSTORM WITH EXCESSIVE RAIN WILL EFFECT THE DRY CREEK 
DRAINAGE ALONG WITH SOLDIER PASS ROAD...DRY CREEK ROAD AND FOREST 
SERVICE ROAD 152. 

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE 
WARNED AREA.

FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR IS IMMINENT. IT IS IMPORTANT TO KNOW WHERE 
YOU ARE RELATIVE TO STREAMS...RIVERS...OR CREEKS WHICH CAN BECOME 
KILLERS IN HEAVY RAINS. CAMPERS AND HIKERS SHOULD AVOID STREAMS OR 
CREEKS. TRAILS...RURAL GRAVEL ROAD...LOW WATER CROSSING CAN BECOME 
HAZARDOUS AND IMPASSABLE IN INTENSE RAINFALL OVER SHORT PERIODS OF 
TIME. SEEK HIGHER GROUND IF YOU NOTICE FLOODING BEGINNING WITHIN 
YOUR AREA. 

LAT...LON 3484 11192 3479 11175 3481 11169 3489 11173
      3497 11177 3507 11190 3501 11199 3493 11200

$$
TC

000 
WGUS75 KFGZ 252055
FFSFGZ

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
150 PM MST WED JUL 25 2007

AZC005-025-252200-
YAVAPAI AZ-COCONINO AZ-
150 PM MST WED JUL 25 2007

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM MST FOR SOUTH
CENTRAL COCONINO AND EAST CENTRAL YAVAPAI COUNTIES...

AT 143 PM MST...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED FLASH 
FLOODING AND A DEBRIS FLOW ACROSS HIGHWAY 179 GOING SOUTH OUT OF 
SEDONA. CURRENTLY HIGHWAY 179 SOUTH OUT OF SEDONA HAS BEEN BLOCKED 
BY DEBRIS AND HIGH WATER. 

THIS THUNDERSTORM WITH EXCESSIVE RAIN IS NEARLY STATIONARY NORTHWEST 
OF THE CITY OF SEDONA AND CONTINUES TO CREATE A FLASH FLOOD THREAT 
ESPECIALLY ALONG DRY CREEK DRAINAGE AND ANY ROADS WITHIN THE 
AREA...INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO FOREST SERVICE ROAD 152...DRY 
CREEK ROAD...SOLDIER PASS ROAD.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS 1.0 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WARNED 
AREA.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...URBAN AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES
AS WELL AS OTHER DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.

FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR IS IMMINENT. IT IS IMPORTANT TO KNOW WHERE 
YOU ARE RELATIVE TO STREAMS...RIVERS...OR CREEKS WHICH CAN BECOME 
KILLERS IN HEAVY RAINS. CAMPERS AND HIKERS SHOULD AVOID STREAMS OR 
CREEKS.

LAT...LON 3484 11192 3479 11175 3481 11169 3489 11173
      3497 11177 3507 11190 3501 11199 3493 11200

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
918 AM MST WED JUL 25 2007

.SYNOPSIS...A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS ARIZONA
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MORNING SOUNDINGS INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
AIRMASS SINCE YESTERDAY. DEEP MOISTURE IS PRESENT WITH MID LEVEL
FLOW OF 10-15 KT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR...120-130 PERCENT OF NORMAL. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
ACROSS CENTRAL COCONINO COUNTY SHOULD DELAY ONSET OF DEEP CONVECTION
IN THAT AREA...BUT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OVER THE YAVAPAI CO
MTNS...EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM AND MUCH OF APACHE AND NAVAJO COUNTIES
THIS MORNING POINT TO AN EARLY START. THE MAIN THREAT WITH STORMS
TODAY WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS THE STORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT
RAINFALL PRODUCERS. A FEW AREAS MAY SEE ENOUGH RAIN FOR SMALL STREAM
FLOOD ADVISORIES LATER TODAY...BUT THE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE
LOW ENOUGH THAT NO FLASH FLOOD WATCHES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME. A
FEW STORMS MAY ALSO CONTAIN HAIL AROUND A HALF INCH IN DIAMETER.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...(230 AM MST WED JUL 25)...BY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...A DEVELOPING SURGE IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL ONLY
SERVE TO INCREASE MOISTURE VALUES ACROSS THE STATE. WE WILL CONTINUE
HIGH SCATTERED TO LIKELY POPS RIGHT ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND...IF NOT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SEVEN DAY PERIOD. IT WILL BE VERY
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT UP AND DOWN DAYS IN SUCH A MOISTURE RICH
AIRMASS WITH HEAVY DEBRIS CLOUD EVERY NIGHT...SO WE WILL JUST STAY
FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THE FORECASTS THAT HAVE BEEN ISSUED OVER THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS. PETERSON.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP AFTER 18Z AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS ACCOMPANYING THE STRONGER STORMS. THE MAIN THREAT WITH
STORMS WILL BE REDUCED VISIBILITY IN HEAVY RAIN. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
CEILINGS OF 12 TO 17 KFT MSL ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

JJ / MCCOLLUM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
947 AM MST WED JUL 25 2007

AZZ004>018-037>040-260700-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-
MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-KAIBAB PLATEAU-COCONINO PLATEAU-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
CHINLE VALLEY-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
BLACK MESA AREA-LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-
947 AM MST WED JUL 25 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...NORTHERN
GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA LATE
THIS MORNING...CONTINUING THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE STORMS WILL
BE SLOW MOVING...WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING THE
MAIN THREAT. A FEW STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE HAIL AROUND A HALF
INCH IN DIAMETER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

JJ