Severe Thunderstorm Warning 188, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

000 
WWUS54 KEWX 071425
SVSEWX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
925 AM CDT MON MAY 7 2007

TXC271-071515-
/O.CON.KEWX.SV.W.0188.000000T0000Z-070507T1515Z/
KINNEY TX-
925 AM CDT MON MAY 7 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1015 AM CDT
FOR KINNEY COUNTY...

AT 918 AM CDT...A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WAS REPORTED CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70
MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 14 MILES
NORTHWEST OF ALAMO VILLAGE TO 12 MILES WEST OF SPOFFORD...OR ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 19 MILES NORTH OF BRACKETTVILLE TO 12 MILES NORTH
OF QUEMADO...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  ALAMO VILLAGE BY 940 AM CDT...
  BRACKETTVILLE BY 945 AM CDT...
  SPOFFORD BY 950 AM CDT...

THESE ARE DANGEROUS STORMS. IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

LAT...LON 2962 10068 2963 10013 2910 10012 2909 10016
      2909 10068

$$

000 
WWUS54 KEWX 071514
SVSEWX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1014 AM CDT MON MAY 7 2007

TXC271-071524-
/O.EXP.KEWX.SV.W.0188.000000T0000Z-070507T1515Z/
KINNEY TX-
1014 AM CDT MON MAY 7 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR KINNEY COUNTY EXPIRES AT 1015
AM CDT...

LAT...LON 2962 10068 2963 10013 2910 10012 2909 10016
      2909 10068

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
746 AM CDT MON MAY 7 2007

.AVIATION...I-35 CORRIDOR TERMINALS MVFR CIGS WITH OCNL MVFR VSBYS IN
LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS BECOMING AFTER 19Z VFR AND AFT 03Z MVFR CIGS AGAIN
DEVELOPING. KDRT TERMINAL MVFR CIGS WITH OCNL IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING AFTER 15Z MVFR CIGS
AND AFTER 18Z VFR. AFT 05Z MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING WITH OCNL MVFR
VSBYS IN SCATTERED TSTMS. SOUTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS
EXCEPT STRONG AND GUSTY IN AND NEAR TSTMS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 AM CDT MON MAY 7 2007/

DISCUSSION...
THIS MORNING A MCS WAS ONGOING ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND BIG
COUNTRY. THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK EAST NORTHEAST THIS MORNING ALONG
THE THETA-E RIDGE AXIS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF VAL VERDE AND EDWARDS
COUNTIES. TODAY THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PUT DOWN BY THE MCS
AND ALONG THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WEST OF DEL RIO.

ALL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO MOVE EASTWARD TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWFA. HOWEVER THERE IS A VARIETY OF
SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE SPEED AND SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE UPPER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AS IT TREKS EASTWARD. THE GFS SOLUTION IS THE
SLOWEST AND FURTHEST SOUTH WITH THE UPPER LOW. THIS SOLUTION KEEPS
RAIN IN THE FCST THROUGH SATURDAY. NOGAPS HAS A TRACK SIMILAR TO
THE GFS THROUGH FRIDAY WHILE THE ECMWF IS FARTHER NORTH. WE WILL
GO WITH THE WETTER GFS SOLUTION FOR THIS FCST.

THE GFS MOS MIN TEMP FCST HAS BEEN SHOWING A COOL BIAS OVER THE
WEEKEND. WITH LITTLE OR NO CHANGE IN THE AIRMASS FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WILL FCST NEAR PERSISTENCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

SPC ONCE AGAIN HAS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA
FOR TODAY...EXTENDING A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY.
WILL INCLUDE MENTION OF SEVERE IN THE FCST. ADDITIONAL MCS
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE
THE UPPER TROF AND QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT REMAIN WEST OF THE
CWFA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              86  71  84  69  83 /  20  10  20  20  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  86  72  84  70  82 /  20  10  20  20  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           87  73  87  70  87 /  60  30  30  50  30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       84  73  84  70  82 /  20  10  20  20  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

13/02

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
552 AM CDT MON MAY 7 2007

TXZ183>185-202-217-081100-
VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KINNEY-MAVERICK-
552 AM CDT MON MAY 7 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS THE
EDWARDS PLATEAU..MIDDLE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND OVER WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE FROM
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS COULD
PRODUCE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING AS WELL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
THE SLISK RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING FROM LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. IN ADDITION..DEVELOPING HEAVY RAIN EVENTS MAY
PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE
REQUIRED TONIGHT.

TXZ171>173-186>190-192-203-204-218-228-081100-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-KERR-BANDERA-GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-
TRAVIS-UVALDE-MEDINA-ZAVALA-DIMMIT-
552 AM CDT MON MAY 7 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING FROM LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
IN ADDITION..DEVELOPING HEAVY RAIN EVENTS MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED
FLOODING BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE
REQUIRED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

TXZ191-193-194-205>209-219>225-081100-
HAYS-BASTROP-LEE-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-FRIO-
ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-
552 AM CDT MON MAY 7 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY WITH THE
MAIN THREATS BEING FROM LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. IN
ADDITION..A DEVELOPING HEAVY RAIN EVENT MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED
FLOODING WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE
REQUIRED WEDNESDAY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
819 AM CDT MON MAY 07 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0818 AM     HAIL             DEL RIO                 29.38N 100.90W
05/07/2007  E0.50 INCH       VAL VERDE          TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            PEA TO MARBLE SIZE HAIL.

&&

ANDEWX