Flash Flood Watch 11, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
922 AM CDT MON MAY 7 2007

.UPDATE...A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING OVER
THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND WESTERN HILL COUNTRY THIS MORNING. IT IS
DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE HOW FAR EAST THIS SYSTEM WILL PROGRESS.
LOOKING AT THE VAD WIND PROFILE FROM KDFX WITH THE STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW INTO THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND THE MODEL
DATA...IT LOOKS AS IF THE SYSTEM WILL PROGRESS TO NEAR THE
ESCARPMENT AND THEN DISSIPATE. HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FIRST
PERIOD BASED ON THE CURRENT CONDITIONS. HAVE INCREASED THE POPS
OUT WEST...AND LOWERED THE MAX TEMPS. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST
LOOKS GOOD AND IS ON TRACK. UPDATES WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 746 AM CDT MON MAY 7 2007/

AVIATION...I-35 CORRIDOR TERMINALS MVFR CIGS WITH OCNL MVFR VSBYS IN
LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS BECOMING AFTER 19Z VFR AND AFT 03Z MVFR CIGS AGAIN
DEVELOPING. KDRT TERMINAL MVFR CIGS WITH OCNL IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING AFTER 15Z MVFR CIGS
AND AFTER 18Z VFR. AFT 05Z MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING WITH OCNL MVFR
VSBYS IN SCATTERED TSTMS. SOUTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS
EXCEPT STRONG AND GUSTY IN AND NEAR TSTMS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 AM CDT MON MAY 7 2007/

DISCUSSION...
THIS MORNING A MCS WAS ONGOING ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND BIG
COUNTRY. THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK EAST NORTHEAST THIS MORNING ALONG
THE THETA-E RIDGE AXIS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF VAL VERDE AND EDWARDS
COUNTIES. TODAY THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PUT DOWN BY THE MCS
AND ALONG THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WEST OF DEL RIO.

ALL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO MOVE EASTWARD TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWFA. HOWEVER THERE IS A VARIETY OF
SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE SPEED AND SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE UPPER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AS IT TREKS EASTWARD. THE GFS SOLUTION IS THE
SLOWEST AND FURTHEST SOUTH WITH THE UPPER LOW. THIS SOLUTION KEEPS
RAIN IN THE FCST THROUGH SATURDAY. NOGAPS HAS A TRACK SIMILAR TO
THE GFS THROUGH FRIDAY WHILE THE ECMWF IS FARTHER NORTH. WE WILL
GO WITH THE WETTER GFS SOLUTION FOR THIS FCST.

THE GFS MOS MIN TEMP FCST HAS BEEN SHOWING A COOL BIAS OVER THE
WEEKEND. WITH LITTLE OR NO CHANGE IN THE AIRMASS FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WILL FCST NEAR PERSISTENCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

SPC ONCE AGAIN HAS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA
FOR TODAY...EXTENDING A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY.
WILL INCLUDE MENTION OF SEVERE IN THE FCST. ADDITIONAL MCS
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE
THE UPPER TROF AND QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT REMAIN WEST OF THE
CWFA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              86  71  84  69  83 /  20  10  20  20  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  86  72  84  70  82 /  20  10  20  20  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           84  73  87  70  87 /  60  40  30  50  30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       84  73  84  70  82 /  20  10  20  20  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

03/11

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
552 AM CDT MON MAY 7 2007

TXZ183>185-202-217-081100-
VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KINNEY-MAVERICK-
552 AM CDT MON MAY 7 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS THE
EDWARDS PLATEAU..MIDDLE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND OVER WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE FROM
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS COULD
PRODUCE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING AS WELL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
THE SLISK RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING FROM LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. IN ADDITION..DEVELOPING HEAVY RAIN EVENTS MAY
PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE
REQUIRED TONIGHT.

TXZ171>173-186>190-192-203-204-218-228-081100-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-KERR-BANDERA-GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-
TRAVIS-UVALDE-MEDINA-ZAVALA-DIMMIT-
552 AM CDT MON MAY 7 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING FROM LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
IN ADDITION..DEVELOPING HEAVY RAIN EVENTS MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED
FLOODING BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE
REQUIRED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

TXZ191-193-194-205>209-219>225-081100-
HAYS-BASTROP-LEE-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-FRIO-
ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-
552 AM CDT MON MAY 7 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY WITH THE
MAIN THREATS BEING FROM LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. IN
ADDITION..A DEVELOPING HEAVY RAIN EVENT MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED
FLOODING WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE
REQUIRED WEDNESDAY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
819 AM CDT MON MAY 07 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0818 AM     HAIL             DEL RIO                 29.38N 100.90W
05/07/2007  E0.50 INCH       VAL VERDE          TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            PEA TO MARBLE SIZE HAIL.

&&

ANDEWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
939 AM CDT MON MAY 07 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 AM     FLASH FLOOD      COMSTOCK                29.68N 101.17W
05/07/2007                   VAL VERDE          TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HIGHWAYS 1024 AND 163 CLOSED.

0830 AM     FLASH FLOOD      9 SW JUNO               30.06N 101.22W
05/07/2007                   VAL VERDE          TX   CO-OP OBSERVER

            LOW WATER CROSSINGS FLOODED AROUND HUDSPETH RIVER RANCH.

&&

DC