Severe Thunderstorm Warning 186, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

000 
WWUS54 KEWX 071144
SVSEWX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
644 AM CDT MON MAY 7 2007

TXC465-071215-
/O.CON.KEWX.SV.W.0186.000000T0000Z-070507T1215Z/
VAL VERDE TX-
644 AM CDT MON MAY 7 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 AM CDT
FOR VAL VERDE COUNTY...

AT 636 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO
DETECT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL. 
THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR COMSTOCK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO LOMA 
ALTA.

LAT...LON 2961 10133 2951 10116 2991 10077 3006 10102

$$

000 
WWUS54 KEWX 071153
SVSEWX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
652 AM CDT MON MAY 7 2007

TXC465-071215-
/O.CON.KEWX.SV.W.0186.000000T0000Z-070507T1215Z/
VAL VERDE TX-
652 AM CDT MON MAY 7 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 AM CDT
FOR VAL VERDE COUNTY...

AT 645 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL. 
THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES EAST OF COMSTOCK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
20 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO LOMA 
ALTA.

LAT...LON 2961 10133 2951 10116 2991 10077 3006 10102

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
344 AM CDT MON MAY 7 2007

.DISCUSSION...
THIS MORNING A MCS WAS ONGOING ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND BIG
COUNTRY. THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK EAST NORTHEAST THIS MORNING ALONG
THE THETA-E RIDGE AXIS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF VAL VERDE AND EDWARDS
COUNTIES. TODAY THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PUT DOWN BY THE MCS
AND ALONG THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WEST OF DEL RIO.

ALL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO MOVE EASTWARD TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWFA. HOWEVER THERE IS A VARIETY OF
SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE SPEED AND SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE UPPER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AS IT TREKS EASTWARD. THE GFS SOLUTION IS THE
SLOWEST AND FURTHEST SOUTH WITH THE UPPER LOW. THIS SOLUTION KEEPS
RAIN IN THE FCST THROUGH SATURDAY. NOGAPS HAS A TRACK SIMILAR TO
THE GFS THROUGH FRIDAY WHILE THE ECMWF IS FARTHER NORTH. WE WILL
GO WITH THE WETTER GFS SOLUTION FOR THIS FCST.

THE GFS MOS MIN TEMP FCST HAS BEEN SHOWING A COOL BIAS OVER THE
WEEKEND. WITH LITTLE OR NO CHANGE IN THE AIRMASS FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WILL FCST NEAR PERSISTENCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

SPC ONCE AGAIN HAS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA
FOR TODAY...EXTENDING A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY.
WILL INCLUDE MENTION OF SEVERE IN THE FCST. ADDITIONAL MCS
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE
THE UPPER TROF AND QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT REMAIN WEST OF THE
CWFA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              86  71  84  69  83 /  20  10  20  20  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  86  72  84  70  82 /  20  10  20  20  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           87  73  87  70  87 /  30  30  30  50  30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       84  73  84  70  82 /  10  10  20  20  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

13/02

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
552 AM CDT MON MAY 7 2007

TXZ183>185-202-217-081100-
VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KINNEY-MAVERICK-
552 AM CDT MON MAY 7 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS THE
EDWARDS PLATEAU..MIDDLE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND OVER WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE FROM
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS COULD
PRODUCE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING AS WELL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
THE SLISK RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING FROM LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. IN ADDITION..DEVELOPING HEAVY RAIN EVENTS MAY
PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE
REQUIRED TONIGHT.

TXZ171>173-186>190-192-203-204-218-228-081100-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-KERR-BANDERA-GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-
TRAVIS-UVALDE-MEDINA-ZAVALA-DIMMIT-
552 AM CDT MON MAY 7 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING FROM LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
IN ADDITION..DEVELOPING HEAVY RAIN EVENTS MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED
FLOODING BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE
REQUIRED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

TXZ191-193-194-205>209-219>225-081100-
HAYS-BASTROP-LEE-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-FRIO-
ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-
552 AM CDT MON MAY 7 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY WITH THE
MAIN THREATS BEING FROM LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. IN
ADDITION..A DEVELOPING HEAVY RAIN EVENT MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED
FLOODING WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE
REQUIRED WEDNESDAY.