Severe Thunderstorm Warning 164, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

000 
WWUS54 KEWX 022313
SVSEWX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
614 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2007

TXC171-030000-
/O.CON.KEWX.SV.W.0164.000000T0000Z-070503T0000Z/
GILLESPIE TX-
614 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT
FOR GILLESPIE COUNTY...

AT 606 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS REPORTED CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL...AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70
MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF HARPER...OR ABOUT
22 MILES SOUTH OF MASON...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  ENCHANTED ROCK STATE PARK BY 655 PM CDT...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CDT THURSDAY MORNING
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3047 9955 3029 9955 3029 9932 3017 9930
      3019 9890 3051 9871 3052 9931

$$

000 
WWUS54 KEWX 022358
SVSEWX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
658 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2007

TXC171-030008-
/O.EXP.KEWX.SV.W.0164.000000T0000Z-070503T0000Z/
GILLESPIE TX-
658 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR GILLESPIE COUNTY EXPIRES AT
700 PM CDT...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CDT THURSDAY MORNING
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3047 9955 3029 9955 3029 9932 3017 9930
      3019 9890 3051 9871 3052 9931

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
340 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2007

...SEVERE STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED THIS EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE HILL COUNTRY...

.DISCUSSION...
RAIN...SEVERE STORMS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF TORNADOES ARE IN STORE
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
THE MUCH-ADVERTISED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM HAS STARTED TO
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN AREAS OF THE CWA AND EXPANDS ALMOST ENTIRELY
ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW
EAST-SOUTHEAST PROGRESSION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD
EXIT OUR EASTERN COUNTIES BY MID TO LATE MORNING. THE STRONGEST OF
THE EXISTING STORMS HAVE ALREADY PRODUCED DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL...AND WE EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE AS THE STORMS APPROACH OUR
AREA.

MODELS CONTINUE TO BE CAPRICIOUS WITH THE PLACEMENT OF QPF BULLS-
EYES, BUT WILL LIKELY SEE WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCH RAINFALL AVERAGES
WITH TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE BY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. DESPITE WHERE ANY OF THE MODELS INDICATE THE HEAVIEST
RAIN WILL BE, ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS IS SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH
FLOODING, ESPECIALLY WITH MOST OF THE AREA STILL DEALING WITH
SATURATED GROUNDS FROM RAIN OVER THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS. DUE TO THE
OVERNIGHT TIMING OF THE STORMS, WOULD LIKE TO STRESS THE IMPORTANCE
THAT IT IS OFTEN DIFFICULT TO TELL WHEN ROADWAYS HAVE BECOME
INUNDATED BY FLOOD WATERS...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT. IF POSSIBLE,
KEEP OVERNIGHT TRAVEL LIMITED AND REMAIN ALERT TO THE ONGOING
DANGEROUS WEATHER SITUATION.

ONCE THIS SYSTEM CLEARS THE REGION, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL ENTER
THE PICTURE, LEADING TO A WARM AND DRY WEEKEND. BOTH MAX AND MIN
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE ABOUT 5 TO 7 DEGREES
ABOVE EARLY MAY NORMALS. MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL
KEEP THE WARMER MORNING LOWS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, BUT MAX
TEMPS WILL MODERATE A LITTLE. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OVER THE WEEKEND AND
WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. SO FAR,
THIS WILL MEAN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MORE RAIN ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS SOME TIME BETWEEN EARLY MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY. DESPITE MODELS
HAVING DEPICTED THIS SYSTEM FOR THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS, THERE HAS
BEEN VERY LITTLE CONSISTENCY WITH THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THIS
FEATURE...WHICH IS WHY THERE IS AS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST AS THERE IS.

STAYED WITHIN A CATEGORY OF GFS(X) NUMBERS THROUGH MOST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              69  83  70  91  70 /  80  50  10   0  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  67  82  68  90  70 /  80  50  10   0  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           70  90  73  95  73 /  70  10  10   0  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       68  86  71  91  71 /  80  40  10   0  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...CALDWELL...
COMAL...DE WITT...EDWARDS...FAYETTE...GILLESPIE...GONZALES...
GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...KENDALL...KERR...KINNEY...LAVACA...
LEE...LLANO...MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...UVALDE...VAL VERDE...
WILLIAMSON...WILSON.

&&

25/01

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
540 AM CDT WED MAY 2 2007

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>208-031045-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-
540 AM CDT WED MAY 2 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM LATER THIS
MORNING AND THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT SOME OF THESE STORMS
COULD BECOME SEVERE. LATER THIS AFTERNOON WE EXPECT HEAVY RAIN TO
DEVELOP WHICH WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NO HAZARDOUS
WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED LATER THIS MORNING.

TXZ209-217>225-228-031045-
FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-
DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
540 AM CDT WED MAY 2 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM LATER THIS
MORNING AND THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT SOME OF THESE STORMS
COULD BECOME SEVERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NO HAZARDOUS
WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED LATER THIS MORNING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
123 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2007

TXZ172-173-189>194-204>209-217>225-228-022030-
BURNET-WILLIAMSON-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-MEDINA-
BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-FRIO-
ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BURNET...GEORGETOWN...BOERNE...BLANCO...
SAN MARCOS...AUSTIN...BASTROP...GIDDINGS...HONDO...SAN ANTONIO...
NEW BRAUNFELS...SEGUIN...LOCKHART...LA GRANGE...EAGLE PASS...
CRYSTAL CITY...PEARSALL...PLEASANTON...FLORESVILLE...
KARNES CITY...GONZALES...CUERO...HALLETTSVILLE...CARRIZO SPRINGS
123 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2007

...LARGE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE
HILL COUNTRY AND SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING TO THE WEST FROM SANDERSON
TO NEAR OZONA WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS LINE WILL DEVELOP INTO A LARGE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX AS IT
MOVES EASTWARD AND APPROACHES THE WESTERN HILL COUNTRY. THIS LARGE
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT.
SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. A TORNADO WATCH IS ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN SECTIONS
THE HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU WITH THIS LINE OF DEVELOPING
STORMS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE HILL COUNTRY FROM 4 PM THROUGH TONIGHT.