River Flood Warning 17, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

000 
WGUS84 KEWX 061359
FLSEWX
TXC163-062159-

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
859 AM CDT FRI JUL 06 2007

...THE FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR THE 

  FRIO RIVER...
  
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL LIKELY CHANGE THESE RIVER FORECAST LEVELS.


TXC163-061429-
/X.CAN.KEWX.FL.W.0017.000000T0000Z-070707T0600Z/
/DBYT2.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
859 AM CDT FRI JUL 06 2007

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR 
  THE FRIO RIVER 
* AT 8 AM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS...5.2 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 6.0 FEET.
* BANKFULL STAGE IS 6.0 FEET.
* FORECAST:   CRESTED OVERNIGHT AT 5.6 FEET AND IS NOW FALLING.  


&&


BELOW ARE THE LATEST RIVER STAGES AND FORECASTS:
                    BF  FLD   OBSERVED            FORECAST 6 AM LST
LOCATION           STG  STG    STG    DAY TIME   SAT   SUN   MON   TUE   WED
  DERBY              6    6    5.2   FRI  8 AM   3.9   3.0   2.8   2.6   2.6

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
844 PM CDT THU JUL 5 2007

.UPDATE...
THIS EVENING THE PERSISTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WAS LOCATED
OVER EAST CENTRAL TEXAS DRIFTING NORTHEASTWARD. LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS
DEPICTED A SFC LOW CENTERED SOUTH OF ATASCOSA COUNTY WITH AN ATTENDANT
SFC TROF EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS CAMERON. 00Z SOUNDINGS STILL
HAVE PWS CLOSE TO 2 INCHES. WILL CONTINUE FFA...STILL SOME CONCERN
FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING IN THE VICINITY OF THE SFC TROF AXIS. NO SIG CHANGES TO
CURRENT FCST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 PM CDT THU JUL 5 2007/

AVIATION...
AN UPPER LOW BETWEEN AUS AND TPL WILL SLOWLY MOVE NE DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD. WIDELY SCATTERED SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA WILL
CONTINUE, POSSIBLY BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS AFTER 08Z. CONFIDENCE
LOW THAT TAF SITES WILL BE DIRECTLY IMPACTED AND WILL ONLY SHOW
VCSH OR VCTS AND CB. VFR SKIES WILL PREVAIL, EXCEPT AREAS OF MVFR
CIGS WITH LOCAL IFR CIGS/MVFR VSBYS BETWEEN 08Z AND 16Z AS WELL AS
IN SHRA/TSRA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 615 PM CDT THU JUL 5 2007/

UPDATE...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR OUR WESTERN COUNTIES HAS EXPIRED. TEXT AND
GRID PRODUCTS UPDATED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT THU JUL 5 2007/

DISCUSSION...UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER BASTROP COUNTY MOVING NORTH
INTO CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THAT PORTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM BUCHANAN DAM TO
JOHNSON CITY TO SAN ANTONIO TO JUST SOUTH OF JOURDANTON. WEST OF
THIS LINE..THE WATCH WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 6 PM.
A MOIST TROPICAL GULF INFLOW INTO THE UPPER LOW TONIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. SOME OF
THESE WILL PRODUCE LOCALIZED RAIN AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES.
WILL DISCOUNT THE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK IN THE GFS MODEL BUT
CONTINUE WITH LESSER CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH LOW CHANCES MAINLY OVER EASTERN
SECTIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME MORE SEASONAL THIS WEEKEND
AS THE DEEP TROPICAL ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO DRY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              72  89  73  93  73 /  70  60  30  20  30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  71  89  71  91  71 /  70  60  30  20  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           73  93  75  91  75 /  30  40  30  30  30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       71  89  73  90  74 /  70  50  30  20  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
ATASCOSA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...CALDWELL...COMAL...
DE WITT...FAYETTE...GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...LAVACA...
LEE...TRAVIS...WILLIAMSON...WILSON.

&&

13/04

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
658 PM CDT THU JUL 5 2007

TXZ172-173-190>194-205>209-220>225-061100-
BURNET-WILLIAMSON-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-BEXAR-COMAL-
GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-
DE WITT-LAVACA-
658 PM CDT THU JUL 5 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER CENTRAL TEXAS WILL INTERACT WITH A VERY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FRIDAY MORNING. THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST OF
CENTRAL TEXAS. MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY.

THERE ARE SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT OR FRIDAY.

TXZ171-183>189-202>204-217>219-228-061100-
LLANO-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-GILLESPIE-KENDALL-
KINNEY-UVALDE-MEDINA-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-FRIO-DIMMIT-
658 PM CDT THU JUL 5 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CENTRAL TEXAS WILL
INTERACT WITH A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO GENERATE WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST OF
CENTRAL TEXAS. MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.