Flash Flood Warning 309, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

000 
WGUS74 KEWX 061239
FFSEWX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
734 AM CDT FRI JUL 6 2007

TXC029-061300-
BEXAR TX-
734 AM CDT FRI JUL 6 2007

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 AM CDT FOR BEXAR
COUNTY...

AT 724 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR SHOWED THE HEAVY 
RAINS DISSIPATING OVER BEXAR COUNTY IN THE PAST HOUR AND THE WARNING 
WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.  HOWEVER ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WERE 
DEVELOPING TO THE WEST NEAR MEDINA LAKE MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH 
AND THIS ACTIVITY COULD SKIRT EXTREME NORTHWEST BEXAR COUNTY WITH 
RAINFALL AMOUNTS NEAR INCH BETWEEN BETWEEN 8 AND 9 AM.     

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOODED 
AREAS...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR 
LOCAL NEWS MEDIA FOR THE LATEST FLOOD INFORMATION.

LAT...LON 2926 9876 2923 9848 2943 9821 2959 9837
      2949 9878

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
443 AM CDT FRI JUL 6 2007

.DISCUSSION...
NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO TRAIN OVER A NARROW SWATH NEAR
A HONDO TO SEGUIN TO LEXINGTON LINE. THE CONVECTION FOCUS BROADENS
AS IT CONTINUES NORTHEAST INTO NE TX WHERE A LARGE PORTION OF THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT IS BREAKING AWAY FROM A BROADER AXIS OF
CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR A JCT TO ACT LINE.

TROPICAL ZR WAS REINSTATED FOR THE KEWX 88D AS A SMALL CELL OVER
CEDAR PARK SHOWED AN UNDERESTIMATING BIAS OF CLOSE TO 3. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW POOR AGREEMENT ON QPF...BUT A SPLIT OF THE
NAM/GFS SEEMS PRACTICAL, WITH THE NAM PERFORMING BETTER. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT A HEAVY RAIN EVENT POSSIBLE OVER THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS TONIGHT, BUT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST A LOT OF THAT RAIN
MAY DEVELOP TODAY. THIS WAS THE MAIN REASON TO EXTEND THE WATCH
WESTWARD, BUT THE LACK OF RECENT RAINFALL AND LOWER NAM QPF VALUES
FOR TODAY KEPT US FROM EXTENDING THE WATCH ALL THE WAY TO THE RIO
GRANDE.

MODEL CONSENSUS HAS GRADUALLY DECREASING RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY, BUT THE GFS CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE HEAVY RAINS
CENTERED OVER OUR AREA THROUGH THIS PERIOD. WILL FOLLOW THE GFS
POPS VAGUELY, BUT SHADE TOWARD THE DRIER TREND BY SUNDAY. THE
SHIFT TO A DRIER PATTERN DOESNT TAKE US OUT OF A RAIN PATTERN
COMPLETELY AS THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL STILL ALLOW FOR
ENERGY TO SLIDE SOUTH FROM THE HIGH PLAINS. HOWEVER, THE AIR
SHOULD GRADUALLY DRY OUT TO MORE NORMAL LEVELS WITH HIGH TEMPS
RETURNING TO THE LOW TO MID 90S FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              86  72  88  73  91 /  60  40  30  30  40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  86  69  89  72  89 /  70  40  30  40  40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           92  74  91  75  96 /  40  40  30  30  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       86  73  88  74  89 /  60  50  30  40  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...CALDWELL...
COMAL...DE WITT...FAYETTE...FRIO...GILLESPIE...GONZALES...
GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...KENDALL...KERR...LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...
MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...UVALDE...WILLIAMSON...WILSON.

&&

18/01

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
658 PM CDT THU JUL 5 2007

TXZ172-173-190>194-205>209-220>225-061100-
BURNET-WILLIAMSON-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-BEXAR-COMAL-
GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-
DE WITT-LAVACA-
658 PM CDT THU JUL 5 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER CENTRAL TEXAS WILL INTERACT WITH A VERY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FRIDAY MORNING. THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST OF
CENTRAL TEXAS. MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY.

THERE ARE SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT OR FRIDAY.

TXZ171-183>189-202>204-217>219-228-061100-
LLANO-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-GILLESPIE-KENDALL-
KINNEY-UVALDE-MEDINA-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-FRIO-DIMMIT-
658 PM CDT THU JUL 5 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CENTRAL TEXAS WILL
INTERACT WITH A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO GENERATE WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST OF
CENTRAL TEXAS. MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.