Flash Flood Warning 333, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
336 PM CDT SAT JUL 7 2007

.DISCUSSION...
SLOW TRANSITION TO DRIER WEATHER CONTINUES TO SHOW UP ON FCST SOLUTIONS
AND TRENDS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AT A VERY SLOW PACE THRU SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...THEN PICKING UP TO A LITTLE QUICKER CHANGE BY THE MID
TO LATE PART OF NEXT WEEK. S/W TROFS MOVING IN NW WINDS ALOFT NEXT
WEEKEND MAY PASS CLOSE ENOUGH FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER
THE NORTHEAST PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY
DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS IN THE WEEK OF JUL 15 TO 21. WILL
CONTINUE THE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCES TO THE NORTH AND EAST.  700 TO 300 HPA TROF REMAINS OVER
THE AREA...AND IS FCST TO CONTINUE IN THAT TYPE OF PATTERN THRU
SUNDAY.  ANOTHER TROF FROM 700 TO 300 HPA OVER THE GREAT PLAINS
IS FCST TO MOVE SOUTH AND THEN EAST LATE SUNDAY THRU MONDAY. THIS
PATTERN IS FCST TO FORM A WEAK LOW OVER OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS
SUNDAY WITH A LINGERING WEAK TROF EXTENDING SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST TO
PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS TYPE OF PATTERN WILL FAVOR
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AGAIN SUNDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES
OVER THE NORTH AND EAST PART OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP CURRENT
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THRU 9 PM DUE CONTINUING SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...THAT ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THRU
THE EVENING.  EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BE MORE
WIDELY SCATTERED ON SUNDAY...WITH MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER
THE EAST PART OF THE AREA.  EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO DIMINISH FASTER SUNDAY EVENING.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT THRU MONDAY...THE WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH
APPEAR TO HAVE SOME MOMENTUM TO CARRY THE 700 TO 300 HPA TROF
EAST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...ALTHOUGH THE RATE OF EASTWARD
MOVEMENT CONTINUES TO BE SLOW FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL
PROMPT KEEPING SOME TYPE OF RAIN CHANCES FOR THE EAST PART OF THE
AREA. COMPOSITE OF SOLUTIONS DOES SHOW HEIGHT FIELD INCREASING
SLIGHTLY MON AND TUE...AS TEMPS ALOFT GRADUALLY WARM...TRANSITIONING
TO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT THAT MAY TAKE UNTIL THE MID TO LATE
PART OF NEXT WEEK TO REACH. MOST MEDIUM RANGE TOOLS SHOW STORM
TRACK MIGRATING NORTHWARD IN THE MID TO LATE PART OF NEXT
WEEK...SIGNALING AN INCREASE IN RIDGING ALOFT IN AN EVOLUTIONARY
WAY AND IN A WAY THAT ALLOWS A WEAK RIDGE TO FORM AND STAY OVER
THE AREA IN THE WEEK OF JUL 15 TO 21. THE ONLY RISK WILL BE
STRENGTH OF RIDGING ALOFT AND IF TROF OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE U.S. ALLOWS ANY WX SYSTEMS TO APPROACH FROM THE NW IN THESE
TIME FRAMES. FOR NOW WILL SHOW DECREASING RAIN CHANCES IN THE MID
PART OF NEXT WEEK THRU NEXT WEEKEND...EXCEPT FOR THE EASTERN MOST
PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...WHERE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAY
LINGER NEXT WEEKEND...AS WX SYSTEMS MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL U.S.
TOWARD THE MS VALLEY...WITH THE SW PART OF WX SYSTEMS POSSIBLY
AFFECTING THE EASTERN MOST COUNTIES OF THE AREA.  MOST MEDIUM
RANGE TOOLS SHOW DRIER AND WARMER PATTERN SHOWING UP IN THE
JUL 15 TO 21 TIME FRAME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              73  91  75  92  75 /  50  30  20  20  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  71  91  74  91  74 /  50  30  20  20  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           76  94  77  95  78 /  50  10  10  10  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       74  89  74  91  75 /  50  30  10  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...
CALDWELL...COMAL...DE WITT...DIMMIT...EDWARDS...FAYETTE...FRIO...
GILLESPIE...GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...KENDALL...KERR...
KINNEY...LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...MAVERICK...MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...
UVALDE...VAL VERDE...WILLIAMSON...WILSON...ZAVALA.

&&

08/05