Flash Flood Warning 330, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

000 
WGUS74 KEWX 072146
FFSEWX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
441 PM CDT SAT JUL 7 2007

TXC123-285-072345-
LAVACA TX-DEWITT TX-
441 PM CDT SAT JUL 7 2007

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 PM CDT FOR
DEWITT AND LAVACA COUNTIES...

AT 433 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO
DETECT A THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR YOAKUM...MOVING NORTH AT 15 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
EZZELL...SPEAKS...SHINER...HALLETTSVILLE...SUBLIME AND MOULTON

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADARS HAVE ESTIMATED AN AVERAGE OF 
2 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN OVER PILOT GROVE BRANCH SOUTHEAST OF 
YOAKUM....AND HONEY CREEK NORTH OF SUBLIME. AT RAINFALL RATES NEAR 2 
INCHES AN HOUR AN ADDITIONAL 4 INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS 
LAVACA COUNTY. 

RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAIN WILL FLOOD CREEKS, STREAMS, STREET
INTERSECTIONS, CULVERTS AND UNDERPASSES. LOW LYING PLACES THAT
NORMALLY FLOOD COULD BECOME DEATH TRAPS. DO NOT CROSS ANY FLOODED
AREA. TURN AROUND DONT DROWN.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOODED
AREAS...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR
LOCAL NEWS MEDIA FOR THE LATEST FLOOD INFORMATION.

REPORT FLASH FLOODING TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY FOR RELAY
TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 2925 9668 2907 9693 2907 9693 2911 9698
      2887 9730 2893 9742 2882 9758 2900 9775
      2938 9723 2959 9720 2963 9715 2963 9686
      2936 9658

$$

000 
WGUS74 KEWX 072237
FFSEWX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
534 PM CDT SAT JUL 7 2007

TXC123-072244-
DEWITT TX-
534 PM CDT SAT JUL 7 2007

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR DEWITT COUNTY...

LAT...LON 2921 9674 2908 9692 2915 9701 2938 9722
      2960 9719 2963 9715 2963 9686 2958 9682
      2957 9679 2952 9673 2936 9658

$$

TXC285-072345-
LAVACA TX-
534 PM CDT SAT JUL 7 2007

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 PM CDT FOR
LAVACA COUNTY...

AT 527 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO 
DETECT MODERATE RAIN ACROSS MOST OF LAVACA COUNTY...MOVING NORTHEAST 
AT 5 MPH.  AN ESTIMATED 2 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN NORTH OF SUBLIME 
OVER HONEY CREEK AND MIXON CREEK...AND SOUTHEAST OF YOAKUM OVER 
SUPPLEJACK CREEK AND PILOT GROVE BRANCH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
SHINER...SUBLIME AND MOULTON

WHEN WATER COVERS THE ROAD...TURN AROUND DONT DROWN. THE LIFE YOU
SAVE MAY BE YOUR OWN.

DO NOT DRIVE WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD. TWO FEET OF RUSHING WATER
CAN CARRY AWAY MOST VEHICLES...INCLUDING SUVS AND PICKUPS. TURN
AROUND DONT DROWN.

REPORT FLASH FLOODING TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY FOR RELAY
TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 2921 9674 2908 9692 2915 9701 2938 9722
      2960 9719 2963 9715 2963 9686 2958 9682
      2957 9679 2952 9673 2936 9658

$$

000 
WGUS74 KEWX 072338
FFSEWX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
636 PM CDT SAT JUL 7 2007

TXC285-072345-
LAVACA TX-
636 PM CDT SAT JUL 7 2007

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 645 PM CDT FOR LAVACA 
COUNTY...

AT 630 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED ONLY
LIGHT RAIN OVER THE LAVACA COUNTY.  THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING IS 
ENDING. THEREFORE THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE 
AT 645 PM. 

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO SUBLIME...
SHINER...MOULTON AND HALLETTSVILLE

REPORT FLASH FLOODING TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY FOR RELAY
TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 2936 9659 2908 9692 2915 9701 2938 9722
      2960 9719 2963 9715 2963 9686 2958 9682
      2957 9679 2952 9673

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
336 PM CDT SAT JUL 7 2007

.DISCUSSION...
SLOW TRANSITION TO DRIER WEATHER CONTINUES TO SHOW UP ON FCST SOLUTIONS
AND TRENDS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AT A VERY SLOW PACE THRU SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...THEN PICKING UP TO A LITTLE QUICKER CHANGE BY THE MID
TO LATE PART OF NEXT WEEK. S/W TROFS MOVING IN NW WINDS ALOFT NEXT
WEEKEND MAY PASS CLOSE ENOUGH FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER
THE NORTHEAST PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY
DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS IN THE WEEK OF JUL 15 TO 21. WILL
CONTINUE THE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCES TO THE NORTH AND EAST.  700 TO 300 HPA TROF REMAINS OVER
THE AREA...AND IS FCST TO CONTINUE IN THAT TYPE OF PATTERN THRU
SUNDAY.  ANOTHER TROF FROM 700 TO 300 HPA OVER THE GREAT PLAINS
IS FCST TO MOVE SOUTH AND THEN EAST LATE SUNDAY THRU MONDAY. THIS
PATTERN IS FCST TO FORM A WEAK LOW OVER OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS
SUNDAY WITH A LINGERING WEAK TROF EXTENDING SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST TO
PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS TYPE OF PATTERN WILL FAVOR
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AGAIN SUNDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES
OVER THE NORTH AND EAST PART OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP CURRENT
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THRU 9 PM DUE CONTINUING SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...THAT ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THRU
THE EVENING.  EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BE MORE
WIDELY SCATTERED ON SUNDAY...WITH MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER
THE EAST PART OF THE AREA.  EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO DIMINISH FASTER SUNDAY EVENING.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT THRU MONDAY...THE WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH
APPEAR TO HAVE SOME MOMENTUM TO CARRY THE 700 TO 300 HPA TROF
EAST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...ALTHOUGH THE RATE OF EASTWARD
MOVEMENT CONTINUES TO BE SLOW FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL
PROMPT KEEPING SOME TYPE OF RAIN CHANCES FOR THE EAST PART OF THE
AREA. COMPOSITE OF SOLUTIONS DOES SHOW HEIGHT FIELD INCREASING
SLIGHTLY MON AND TUE...AS TEMPS ALOFT GRADUALLY WARM...TRANSITIONING
TO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT THAT MAY TAKE UNTIL THE MID TO LATE
PART OF NEXT WEEK TO REACH. MOST MEDIUM RANGE TOOLS SHOW STORM
TRACK MIGRATING NORTHWARD IN THE MID TO LATE PART OF NEXT
WEEK...SIGNALING AN INCREASE IN RIDGING ALOFT IN AN EVOLUTIONARY
WAY AND IN A WAY THAT ALLOWS A WEAK RIDGE TO FORM AND STAY OVER
THE AREA IN THE WEEK OF JUL 15 TO 21. THE ONLY RISK WILL BE
STRENGTH OF RIDGING ALOFT AND IF TROF OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE U.S. ALLOWS ANY WX SYSTEMS TO APPROACH FROM THE NW IN THESE
TIME FRAMES. FOR NOW WILL SHOW DECREASING RAIN CHANCES IN THE MID
PART OF NEXT WEEK THRU NEXT WEEKEND...EXCEPT FOR THE EASTERN MOST
PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...WHERE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAY
LINGER NEXT WEEKEND...AS WX SYSTEMS MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL U.S.
TOWARD THE MS VALLEY...WITH THE SW PART OF WX SYSTEMS POSSIBLY
AFFECTING THE EASTERN MOST COUNTIES OF THE AREA.  MOST MEDIUM
RANGE TOOLS SHOW DRIER AND WARMER PATTERN SHOWING UP IN THE
JUL 15 TO 21 TIME FRAME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              73  91  75  92  75 /  50  30  20  20  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  71  91  74  91  74 /  50  30  20  20  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           76  94  77  95  78 /  50  10  10  10  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       74  89  74  91  75 /  50  30  10  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...
CALDWELL...COMAL...DE WITT...DIMMIT...EDWARDS...FAYETTE...FRIO...
GILLESPIE...GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...KENDALL...KERR...
KINNEY...LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...MAVERICK...MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...
UVALDE...VAL VERDE...WILLIAMSON...WILSON...ZAVALA.

&&

08/05