Flash Flood Warning 327, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

000 
WGUS74 KEWX 071446
FFSEWX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
944 AM CDT SAT JUL 7 2007

TXC187-071454-
GUADALUPE TX-
944 AM CDT SAT JUL 7 2007

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 945 AM CDT FOR GUADALUPE
COUNTY...

THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR GUADALUPE COUNTY WILL BE ALLOWED TO 
EXPIRE AT 945 AM. LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF 
THE COUNTY FOR THE NEXT HOUR BUT RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE LESS THAN 
ONE TENTH OF AN INCH.

LAT...LON 2939 9784 2939 9812 2949 9813 2949 9817
      2957 9824 2957 9829 2959 9832 2969 9808
      2985 9790 2983 9785 2980 9785 2975 9778
      2971 9777 2966 9765

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
418 AM CDT SAT JUL 7 2007

.DISCUSSION...
EARLY MORNING ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONFORMING NICELY TO THE
LATEST FFA PRODUCT. THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PERSIST FOR
A GREATER AREA OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS, BUT WILL WAIT AND SEE THE
TRENDS WITH THE CURRENT COMPLEX OF STORMS FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO
BEFORE UPDATING THE WATCH. GFS HAS SHOWN A BIT MORE CONSISTENCY
ON THE QPF MAX FOR THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS IN PAST RUNS, BUT THE
NAM HAS PERFORMED ADMIRABLY IN OTHER RECENT RAIN EVENTS, AND ITS
06Z RUN FORECAST DEVIATES THE PRECIP MAX TO THE LEFT INTO THE DRT
AREA LATER THIS MORNING. THE EXPIRATION OF THE NEW WATCH PRODUCT
WILL LIKELY BE THE SAME 02Z THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY ISSUED. MID TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER OKLAHOMA IS SHOWING A MORE PROGRESSIVE
TREND THAT SHOULD HELP BREAK UP THE PACIFIC MOISTURE TAP AND
REDUCE THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
PLENTIFUL, SO WILL CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION TONIGHT, BUT
WITHOUT THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MENTION.

MODEL CONSENSU FORECASTS STILL LOOK A TAD TOO OPTIMISTIC ON
DECREASING RAIN CHANCES HEADING INTO THE WORK WEEK. PRECIPITABLE
WATER FORECASTS REMAIN AT OR ABOVE NORMAL MOST OF THIS WEEK AND A
WEAK MID-LEVEL SHEAR AXIS REMAINS OVER CENTRAL TEXAS TO SUPPORT AT
LEAST SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION. THUS HAVE LEANED SLIGHTLY WETTER
THAN THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE, BUT OTHERWISE HAVE GIVEN IN TO THE
PERSISTENT TREND OF A RETURN TO SEASONAL WEATHER. THE NEXT FEW
AFTERNOONS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW GFS GUIDANCE HIGHS BEFORE
THE ATMOSPERE HAS A CHANCE TO AIR OUT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR AREA-
WIDE STABLE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY AS THE WRN US UPPER RIDGE
NUDGES EAST. BY FRIDAY, SOME OF THE MODEL DATA PUSHES A NW FLOW
EVENT INTO CENTRAL TX, BUT DOES NOT SUGGEST A HEAVY RAINFALL
PATTERN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              89  73  90  75  92 /  50  30  30  10  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  89  71  91  74  91 /  50  30  30  10  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           92  76  96  77  97 /  40  20  10  10  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       88  74  90  74  91 /  50  30  20  10  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
ATASCOSA...BASTROP...BEXAR...CALDWELL...DE WITT...DIMMIT...
FAYETTE...FRIO...GONZALES...GUADALUPE...KARNES...LAVACA...LEE...
MEDINA...WILSON...ZAVALA.

&&

18/09

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
547 AM CDT FRI JUL 6 2007

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-071100-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
547 AM CDT FRI JUL 6 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS EFFECT FOR MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO TRAIN
OVER THE SAME AREAS. THE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL COULD PRODUCE RAPID
RISES IN AREA RIVERS AND CREEKS WHICH REMAIN SWOLLEN FROM PREVIOUS
RAINS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.
A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN OVER THE
TEXAS THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLY DECREASING SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATTION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.