Flash Flood Warning 147, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

000 
WGUS74 KEWX 250128
FFSEWX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
825 PM CDT THU MAY 24 2007

TXC171-250345-
GILLESPIE TX-
825 PM CDT THU MAY 24 2007

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1045 PM CDT FOR
GILLESPIE COUNTY...

AT 821 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER GILLESPIE 
COUNTY IN THE FREDERICKSBURG AREA. RAINFALL RATES NEAR AN INCH AND A 
HALF PER HOUR CONTINUED ACROSS CENTRAL GILLESPIE COUNTY. 

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO WILLOW CITY

WHEN WATER COVERS THE ROAD...TURN AROUND DONT DROWN. THE LIFE YOU
SAVE MAY BE YOUR OWN.

IT IS HARD TO RECOGNIZE THE DANGERS OF FLOODING AT NIGHT. IF FLOOD
WATERS RISE ACT QUICKLY. DO NOT STAY IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOODED
AREAS...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR
LOCAL NEWS MEDIA FOR THE LATEST FLOOD INFORMATION.

DO NOT DRIVE WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD. TWO FEET OF RUSHING WATER
CAN CARRY AWAY MOST VEHICLES...INCLUDING SUVS AND PICKUPS. TURN
AROUND DONT DROWN.

LAT...LON 3046 9859 3020 9859 3015 9904 3015 9918
      3049 9928

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
700 PM CDT THU MAY 24 2007

.AVIATION...I-35 CORRIDOR TERMINALS VFR WITH SCT SHOWERS AND
TSTMS LCLY LWRG CIGS AND VSBYS TO MVFR. AFTER 04Z MVFR CIGS NEAR
15 HND AGL LWRG TO IFR CIGS AFT 10Z. CIGS LIFTING TO MVFR AFT 15Z
AND VFR CIGS AFT 20Z WITH SCT SHWRS AND TSTMS LCLY LWRG CIGS AOB 1
THSD AGL AND VSBYS AOB 3 MILES. KDRT TERMINAL VFR CIGS WITH SCT
SHWRS AND TSTMS TIL 04Z LCLY LWRG CIGS NEAR 15 HND AGL VSBYS AOB 3
MILES. AFT 06Z MVFR CIGS WITH SCT SHWRS. AFT 12Z CIGS LWRG TO IFR
WITH SCT SHWRS. AFT 15Z CIGS LIFTING TO MVFR AND AFT 20Z VFR CIGS
WITH SCT SHWRS AND TSTMS TIL 04Z LCLY LWRG CIGS NEAR 15 HND AGL
VSBYS AOB 3 MILES. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 PM CDT THU MAY 24 2007/

DISCUSSION...
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ARE STILL COMING THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND. THE HEIGHT FIELD ALOFT HAS CHANGED TO SUPPORT BETTER RAIN
CHANCES...AS A SERIES OF 700 TO 250 HPA TROFS MOVE FROM THE
WESTERN U.S. ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS. THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THESE
WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL CAUSE A WEAK LOW OR TROF TO FORM IN THE
HEIGHT FIELD FROM 700 TO 250 HPA ON FRIDAY. A SERIES OF THESE
WEATHER SYSTEMS PASSING NORTH OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN SOME TYPE
OF 700 TO 250 HPA TROF OVER CNTRL TEXAS THROUGH MONDAY. PREVAILING
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE...SO MOISTURE SUPPLY WILL
BE AMPLE AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ALOFT FAVORABLE FOR RAIN TO
DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND. WILL CONTINUE THE FORECAST FOR WET
WEATHER WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS
POSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT. THE
CURRENT PATTERN IS LITTLE CHANGED FROM WHAT WAS OBSERVED LAST
WEEKEND...ONLY IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS MORE MOISTURE IS IN
PLACE...AND THE ENVIRONMENT IS BETTER TO CAUSE MORE WIDESPREAD
RAIN. THE WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH WILL INCREASE IN STRENGTH AND
DRIFT SOUTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE WEAK TROF FROM 700 TO 250
HPA NEAR THE AREA WILL CONTINUE MONDAY...AND THEN MOVE EAST
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...AS THE STRONGER WESTERLIES TO THE
NORTH CARRY TROF AWAY FROM THE AREA. WILL BEGIN TO SHOW RAIN
CHANCES DECREASING FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
FORECASTS SHOW A FAST MOVING 700 TO 300 HPA TROF COMING OVER THE
AREA FROM THE NW ON WEDNESDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH A COOL FRONT. RAIN
AND SHOWERS WITH THIS FEATURE WEDNESDAY AND PART OF WEDNESDAY
EVENING OF NEXT WEEK WOULD BE OF SHORTER DURATION...AND END BY
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO THURSDAY. THIS WOULD SET UP DRY WEATHER FOR
THE LAST PART OF NEXT WEEK AND THE FIRST WEEKEND OF JUNE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              70  82  66  82  67 /  50  50  50  40  40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  69  82  65  82  65 /  50  50  50  40  40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           72  83  68  81  67 /  50  50  50  50  50
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       70  82  67  81  67 /  40  50  50  50  50

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

05/02

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
849 AM CDT THU MAY 24 2007

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-251145-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
849 AM CDT THU MAY 24 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER VAL
VERDE COUNTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL INCREASE THIS
WEEKEND WITH A THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING BY SUNDAY. THE HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL COULD LAST INTO TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
350 PM CDT THU MAY 24 2007

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-250530-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LLANO...BURNET...GEORGETOWN...DEL RIO...
ROCKSPRINGS...LEAKEY...KERRVILLE...BANDERA...FREDERICKSBURG...
BOERNE...BLANCO...SAN MARCOS...AUSTIN...BASTROP...GIDDINGS...
BRACKETTVILLE...UVALDE...HONDO...SAN ANTONIO...NEW BRAUNFELS...
SEGUIN...LOCKHART...LA GRANGE...EAGLE PASS...CRYSTAL CITY...
PEARSALL...PLEASANTON...FLORESVILLE...KARNES CITY...GONZALES...
CUERO...HALLETTSVILLE...CARRIZO SPRINGS
350 PM CDT THU MAY 24 2007

...RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE NEXT FEW DAYS...

A SERIES OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL PASS NEAR AND NORTH OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH MONDAY...PROVIDING A BETTER ENVIRONMENT TO
CAUSE RAIN AND SHOWERS. A WEAK LOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP NEAR
THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WINDS ALOFT ARE EXPECTED
TO BECOME LIGHT...SO THE WETTER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO STAY FOR A
FEW DAYS.  BY TUESDAY...THIS LATE MAY RAIN MAKING PATTERN IS EXPECTED
TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST...CAUSING A DECREASING CHANCE OF RAIN FROM THE
WEST TUESDAY.  ANOTHER WAVE OF SHOWERS COULD SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY DRIER WEATHER LATE NEXT
WEEK.

THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR RAIN...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.  THIS WEATHER PATTERN HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
CAUSE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING.

RAINFALL FOR JANUARY 1ST THROUGH TODAY IS AMONG ONE THE WETTER
JANUARY TO MAY PERIODS OVER THE AREA. THE LIST BELOW SHOWS HOW
JANUARY 1ST TO MAY 23RD...2007 COMPARES WITH THE WETTEST JANUARY TO
MAY PERIODS IN THE PAST.

AUSTIN BERGSTROM AS OF MAY 23RD WAS SO FAR THE 3RD WETTEST.

AUSTIN-BERGSTROM AIRPORT AREA  (THREADEX STATION)
EXTREMES
HIGHEST TOTAL PRECIPITATION (INCHES)
DAYS: 1/1 - 5/31
LENGTH OF PERIOD: 151 DAYS
YEARS: 1948-2007

RANK  VALUE  ENDING DATE
 1   28.83  5/31/1965
 2   25.61  5/31/1957
 3   21.48  JAN. 1ST TO MAY 23RD, 2007
 4   21.00  5/31/1969

DEL RIO AS OF MAY 23RD WAS SO FAR A TIE FOR THE 11TH WETTEST...
WITH JANUARY TO MAY 1994.

DEL RIO AREA  (THREADEX STATION)
EXTREMES
HIGHEST TOTAL PRECIPITATION (INCHES)
DAYS: 1/1 - 5/31
LENGTH OF PERIOD: 151 DAYS
YEARS: 1906-2007

RANK  VALUE  ENDING DATE
  1   19.47  5/31/1957
  2   15.24  5/31/1949
  3   14.60  5/31/1931
  4   13.69  5/31/1992
  5   13.19  5/31/1997
  6   12.56  5/31/1958
  7   12.42  5/31/1914
  8   11.99  5/31/1990
  9   11.97  5/31/1981
 10   11.50  5/31/1987
 11   10.81  5/31/1994 AND JAN. 1ST TO MAY 23RD, 2007
 13   10.76  5/31/2004
 14   10.63  5/31/1969
 15   10.24  5/31/1921

SAN ANTONIO AS OF MAY 23RD WAS SO FAR THE 12TH WETTEST.

SAN ANTONIO AREA  (THREADEX STATION)
EXTREMES
HIGHEST TOTAL PRECIPITATION (INCHES)
DAYS: 1/1 - 5/31
LENGTH OF PERIOD: 151 DAYS
YEARS: 1885-2007

RANK  VALUE  ENDING DATE
 1   29.13  5/31/1992
 2   24.77  5/31/1957
 3   23.69  5/31/1900
 4   22.08  5/31/1935
 5   21.34  5/31/1987
 6   21.28  5/31/1965
 7   20.87  5/31/1993
 8   18.69  5/31/1991
 9   18.66  5/31/1926
10   18.27  5/31/1888
11   18.00  5/31/1949
12   17.46  JAN. 1ST TO MAY 23RD, 2007

AUSTIN MABRY AS OF MAY 23RD WAS SO FAR THE 27TH WETTEST

AUSTIN AREA  (THREADEX STATION)
EXTREMES
HIGHEST TOTAL PRECIPITATION (INCHES)
DAYS: 1/1 - 5/31
LENGTH OF PERIOD: 151 DAYS
YEARS: 1891-2007

RANK  VALUE  ENDING DATE
 1   32.69  5/31/1900
 2   28.03  5/31/1915
 3   27.77  5/31/1992
 4   27.63  5/31/1922
 5   25.58  5/31/1957
 6   24.41  5/31/1914
 7   22.60  5/31/1919
 8   22.54  5/31/1946
 9   22.34  5/31/1965
10   22.20  5/31/1968
11   21.99  5/31/1991
12   21.76  5/31/1929
13   21.46  5/31/1926
14   21.27  5/31/1934
15   20.33  5/31/1944
16   20.26  5/31/1924
17   20.08  5/31/1905
18   19.94  5/31/1958
19   19.68  5/31/1979
20   19.54  5/31/1970
21   19.28  5/31/1997
22   19.17  5/31/1904
23   18.99  5/31/1921
24   18.89  5/31/1931
25   18.79  5/31/1941
26   18.56  5/31/1976
27   18.49  JAN. 1ST TO MAY 23RD, 2007

ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS WILL BE ISSUED AS CONDITIONS WARRANT. FOR THE
LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION...ON THE WEB...GO TO
WWW.SRH.WEATHER.GOV/EWX.