Severe Thunderstorm Warning 61, NWS Kansas City, MO

000 
WWUS53 KEAX 080135
SVSEAX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
833 PM CDT THU JUN 7 2007

MOC033-177-080145-
/O.CON.KEAX.SV.W.0061.000000T0000Z-070608T0145Z/
RAY MO-CARROLL MO-
833 PM CDT THU JUN 7 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWESTERN
CARROLL AND SOUTHERN RAY COUNTIES UNTIL 845 PM CDT...

AT 831 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR NORBORNE...OR 11 MILES WEST OF CARROLLTON...MOVING EAST 
AT 45 MPH. ADDITIONAL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST CLAY AND 
SOUTHWEST RAY COUNTY MAY BECOME SEVERE AS THEY MOVE EAST INTO SOUTH 
CENTRAL RAY COUNTY BY 800 PM.

THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF SOUTHERN
RAY AND SOUTHWESTERN CARROLL COUNTIES.

AT 821 PM PENNY SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED IN RICHMOND. 

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN
DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH NOT IMMEDIATELY
LIKELY...IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF
SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL
INTERIOR ROOM.

LAT...LON 3935 9411 3918 9403 3929 9351 3950 9359

$$

MJ

000 
WWUS53 KEAX 080144
SVSEAX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
844 PM CDT THU JUN 7 2007

MOC033-177-080154-
/O.EXP.KEAX.SV.W.0061.000000T0000Z-070608T0145Z/
RAY MO-CARROLL MO-
844 PM CDT THU JUN 7 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN CARROLL AND
SOUTHERN RAY COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 845 PM CDT...

AT 844 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE WEAKENED...AND NO
LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY. THEREFORE...THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN PLEASANT HILL.

LAT...LON 3935 9411 3918 9403 3929 9351 3950 9359

$$

MJ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
640 PM CDT THU JUN 7 2007

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-FRIDAY)...

WARM SECTOR AIRMASS CONTINUES TO UNDERGO AMPLE HEATING AND
MOISTENING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S AND
DEWPOINTS APPROACHING 70F ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPES ON THE ORDER
2000 J/KG. DRYLINE HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY ACTIVE OVER THE PAST HOUR
OR SO...WITH MOST DISCRETE STORMS NOTED OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA. EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELL
STORMS AND FAST MOVING MINI-BOW SEGMENTS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES THE PRIMARY THREATS. HIGH FREEZING LEVELS AND
ONLY MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY KEEP THREAT OF LARGE HAIL
MARGINAL...ALTHOUGH THIS CAN BE AUGMENTED BY DEGREE OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR.

FURTHER SOUTH...DRYLINE HAS BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY FROM KANSAS CITY
TO SOUTHWEST OF LAWRENCE KANSAS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTOR ORIENTED
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY HAS CONTRIBUTED TO MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT
WITH A CLASSIC TRAINING SETUP UNFOLDING OVER A VERY NARROW (10 MILE
WIDE) CORRIDOR. SLOW MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY
PER KEAX WSR-88D SUGGESTS THAT SEVERE THREAT MAY BE LIMITED FOR NOW
WITH A VERY HEIGHTENED CONCERN OF FLASH FLOODING. POTENT MID LEVEL
SPEED MAX MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL ARRIVE ACROSS THIS REGION
BETWEEN 00 AND 03Z...AND COULD RESULT IN A FAIRLY RAPID INCREASE IN
STORM MODE EVOLUTION AND AN INCREASED SEVERE THREAT.

ACTIVITY SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE REGION AFTER 06Z WITH DRYLINE
PASSAGE. BULK OF CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW SHOULD REMAIN
NORTH OF THE THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR A MARKEDLY CHANGED DAY
TOMORROW WITH TEMPS SOME 15 DEGREES COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR
ADVECTING INTO THE REGION.

BOOKBINDER

EXTENDED (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...

DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...AS AN AREA
OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS OFF TO THE EAST.
HOWEVER...THIS QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER LOOKS TO ONCE AGAIN FLOP BACK
INTO A MORE ACTIVE STRETCH OF WEATHER ON SUNDAY.  MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS ARE IN DECENT LONG WAVE PATTERN AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY...IN
DEVELOPING YET ANOTHER DEEP TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST OF THE
CONUS.  THE LOCAL AFFECTS OF THIS PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO BE FELT ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AS SW FLOW ALOFT LIFTS TONIGHTS COLD
FRONT BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT.  NAM/GFS BOTH INDICATE WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 305K-310K SFC BEGINNING IN THE WESTERN ZONES
BY 06Z SAT.  HOWEVER...THE BIGGEST CONCERN WITH THIS NORTHWARD
LIFTING FRONT WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR SVR DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.  IF THE WARM FRONT SLOWLY LIFTS NEAR THE MO/IA BORDER BY
SUN AFT...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TIME FOR AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
FRONT TO WARM WELL INTO THE MID-UPR 80S. EVEN THOUGH THE BEST SHEAR
WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...MODERATE
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE ABLE TO WORK WITH THE AVAILABLE 20-30 KTS 0-6
KM BULK SHEAR VALUES TO CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SVR WX OVER THE
AREA.

LCL WEATHER BECOMES MORE MUDDLED BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH MODEL
DISCREPANCIES BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS.  GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE GFS
ENSEMBLES AND 00Z ECMWF FOR THE MONDAY TO THURSDAY TIMEFRAME AS
OPERATIONAL GFS IS SEEMS A BIG OUT OF PLACE AND IS SUFFERING FROM
QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK.  REGARDLESS...AFOREMENTIONED
MODELS SUGGEST A CONTINUED DEEPENING OF THE WESTERN TROUGH...MAKING
FOR A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE CENTRAL US.  CLOSER TO
HOME...WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER SWLY FLOW ALOFT THE POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR STORM ACTIVITY THROUGH MUCH OF THE MID-WEEK TIMEFRAME. STORMS
WILL LIKELY NOT BE WIDESPREAD...AS A RESULT ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS ARE
WARRANTED.  THE LOCATION OF THE UPR RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH WARM AIR ALOFT WILL EXIST TO PREVENT DAILY
CONVECTION.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED...WITH RATHER BREEZY SWLY FLOW
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE INTO THE UPPER
80S FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.  THESE TEMPERATURES MAY BE CONSERVATIVE
AND LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO EVALUATE FURTHER.

DUX

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE ST. JOSEPH TERMINAL...PRECIPITATION CHANCES HAVE ENDED.
PRIMARY SENSIBLE WEATHER CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND A WIND SHIFT FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST THIS EVENING. VISIBLE AND IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY CONTINUE TO TRACK AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF CLOUD COVER WRAPPING
AROUND THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR THIS VFR CLOUD DECK TO REACH THE TERMINAL JUST BEFORE
SUNRISE FRIDAY.

FOR THE KANSAS CITY TERMINALS...LITTLE SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN OBSERVED SINCE THE MID AFTERNOON
HOURS AS THE DRYLINE HAS NEARLY HALTED ITS FORWARD PROGRESS. WHILE
THE BULK OF ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF KCI THIS EVENING...
HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE VCTS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE THE FRONT
EDGES A LITTLE FARTHER EAST BY 03Z.  OCCASIONAL BOUTS OF CONVECTION
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE MKC TERMINAL THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. CURRENT MESOSCALE MODEL OUTPUT TRENDS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE A SLOW SHIFT OF THIS CONVECTION TO THE EAST THIS EVENING.
THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE FEATURES A CONTINUATION OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
03Z...WITH VICINITY THUNDER FOR A FEW HOURS THEREAFTER IN CASE THE
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THIS ACTIVITY IS SLOWER THAN FIRST THOUGHT.

GAGAN

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO 7 PM THURSDAY FOR
     MOZ008-MOZ017-MOZ024-MOZ025-MOZ032-MOZ033-MOZ039-
     MOZ040-MOZ044-MOZ045-MOZ046-MOZ053-MOZ054.

KS...NONE.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
104 PM CDT THU JUN 7 2007

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-081815-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-
JOHNSON KS-ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-
PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-
BUCHANAN-CLINTON-CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-
RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-
CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
104 PM CDT THU JUN 7 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL
AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH TODAY. A
NARROW BAND OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAS FORMED ALONG A DRY LINE
WHICH EXTENDS FROM DES MOINES TO NEAR BETHANY TO JUST EAST OF ST
JOSEPH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THIS
BOUNDARY BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE FROM SURFACE HEATING. VERY STRONG WIND
FIELDS EXTENDING WELL UP INTO THE ATMOSPHERE WILL PROVIDE SIGNIFICANT
SHEAR WHICH WILL HELP SUPPORT MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. SINCE THE WIND FIELDS ARE NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL AND THE
FREEZING LEVEL IS SO HIGH THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE FROM
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS
POSSIBLE DUE TO THE EXTREME WIND FIELDS AND INCREASING INSTABILITY.

ALTHOUGH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE ENTIRE REGION
EAST OF AN EASTON KANSAS TO BETHANY LINE THE GREATEST THREAT OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS
AFTERNOON...INCLUDING THE BETHANY...PRINCETON...TRENTON AND GALLATIN
AREAS. AFTER 5 PM AND CONTINUING INTO THE MID EVENING HOURS THE BEST
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE EAST OF A LUCERNE TO ODESSA LINE.
THE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF A BUTLER TO
SEDALIA TO BOONVILLE LINE BY MIDNIGHT.

OTHERWISE...STRONG SOUTH WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED TODAY
WITH WIND GUSTS FROM 35 TO 45 MPH. THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS THIS
AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF A LINE FROM BUTLER TO CARROLLTON
TO KIRKSVILLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
TONIGHT...SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM ST JOSEPH TO BETHANY.

MJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
656 PM CDT THU JUN 07 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0642 PM     HAIL             NORBORNE                39.30N 93.68W
06/07/2007  E2.75 INCH       CARROLL            MO   PUBLIC

            BASEBALL SIZED HAIL REPORTED...ALONG WITH THUNDERSTORM
            WIND GUSTS ESTIMATED AT 80 MPH

&&

SWATSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
713 PM CDT THU JUN 07 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0647 PM     HAIL             CARROLLTON              39.36N 93.50W
06/07/2007  E1.75 INCH       CARROLL            MO   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            FIRE DEPARTMENT OBSERVED GOLFBALL SIZED HAIL WITHIN CITY.

&&

SWATSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
721 PM CDT THU JUN 07 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0720 PM     HAIL             BRUNSWICK               39.42N 93.13W
06/07/2007  E1.75 INCH       CHARITON           MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

GAMIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
722 PM CDT THU JUN 07 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0720 PM     HAIL             BRUNSWICK               39.42N 93.13W
06/07/2007  E1.75 INCH       CHARITON           MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

SWATSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
806 PM CDT THU JUN 7 2007

MOZ030-031-080130-
CARROLL-RAY-
806 PM CDT THU JUN 7 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR SOUTHERN RAY AND WESTERN CARROLL
COUNTIES UNTIL 830 PM CDT...

AT 801 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR ORRICK...OR 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF EXCELSIOR
SPRINGS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  6 MILES NORTHWEST OF HENRIETTA BY 810 PM CDT.
  6 MILES NORTHWEST OF HARDIN BY 820 PM CDT.
  8 MILES NORTHWEST OF NORBORNE BY 830 PM CDT.

THE TOWNS OF FLEMING...RAYVILLE...RUSSELLVILLE AND STET ARE ALSO IN
THE PATH OF THIS STORM.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

MJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
814 PM CDT THU JUN 07 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0642 PM     TSTM WND DMG     NORBORNE                39.30N 93.68W
06/07/2007                   CARROLL            MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            POWER POLES AND TREE LIMBS DOWN...HAIL DAMAGE TO CROPS
            ALSO OBSERVED

&&

SWATSON