Alert archive / Kansas / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2007
Severe Thunderstorm Warning 37, NWS Kansas City, MO
NWS Kansas City, MO issued this severe thunderstorm warning at May 6, 2007, 6:46 PM CDT for Johnson County, Miami County, Kansas; Cass County, Missouri. It was in force for 44 min. 2 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.
The facts
- Issued
- May 6, 2007, 6:46 PM CDT (23:46 UTC)
- Expired
- May 6, 2007, 7:30 PM CDT
- In force
- 44 min
- Issued by
- NWS Kansas City, MO
- Area
- Counties, with a storm outline in the text
Counties Johnson County, KS, Miami County, KS, Cass County, MO
The radar
The Pleasant Hill radar (KEAX), 49 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:45 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
What was reported inside it
| Time | Report | Where | Remark |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 6, 7:09 PM CDT | HAIL 0.75 | 7 N Paola, KS | |
| May 6, 7:13 PM CDT | HAIL 1.25 | Spring Hill, KS |
Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.
Did it verify
Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched one storm report to this severe thunderstorm warning; the first came 27 minutes after it went out.
Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.
The nearest sounding before it
Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 12:00Z, 11.8 hours before the alert went out and 215 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 1328 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -120 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1003 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 20 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 149 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 197 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
000 WUUS53 KEAX 062346 SVREAX KSC091-121-MOC037-070030- /O.NEW.KEAX.SV.W.0037.070506T2346Z-070507T0030Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 646 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2007 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PLEASANT HILL HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... SOUTHEASTERN JOHNSON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS NORTHERN MIAMI COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS NORTHWESTERN CASS COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI * UNTIL 730 PM CDT * AT 645 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR PAOLA...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. * THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR... 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF LOUISBURG BY 655 PM CDT. SPRING HILL BY 700 PM CDT. 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF CLEVELAND BY 705 PM CDT. 9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF OLATHE BY 725 PM CDT. 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF BELTON BY 730 PM CDT. THE TOWNS OF WAGSTAFF...CHILES...BUCYRUS...STILLWELL...JOHNSON CO ARPT AND STANLEY ARE ALSO IN THE PATH OF THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM. IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER... PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS. LAT...LON 3857 9497 3850 9476 3880 9447 3889 9484 $$ BAILEY
1 follow-up statement
000 WWUS53 KEAX 070010 SVSEAX SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 710 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2007 KSC091-121-MOC037-070030- /O.CON.KEAX.SV.W.0037.000000T0000Z-070507T0030Z/ JOHNSON KS-MIAMI KS-CASS MO- 710 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2007 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN MIAMI AND SOUTHEASTERN JOHNSON COUNTIES IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS...AND NORTHWESTERN CASS COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI UNTIL 730 PM CDT... AT 708 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR SPRING HILL...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR... 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF OLATHE BY 720 PM CDT. THE TOWNS OF STILLWELL AND JOHNSON CO ARPT ARE ALSO IN THE PATH OF THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM. IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE HAIL AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS. LAT...LON 3868 9494 3864 9473 3880 9450 3889 9484 $$ BAILEY
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Kansas City, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at May 6, 4:42 PM CDT, 2 hours 4 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, May 6, 4:42 PM CDT, 2 hours 4 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
442 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2007
.DISCUSSION...
SREF AND GFS ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO HOLD UPPER LOW TO THE WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF STRONG
CONVECTION EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THAT TIME.
THE PRIMARY THREAT IN THE NEAR TERM IS FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING
GIVEN OVERNIGHT AND MORNING CONVECTION LAID DOWN A LARGE SWATH OF
THREE TO FOUR INCHES OF RAINFALL BASED ON CALIBRATED WSR-88D
ESTIMATES. NUMEROUS RIVERS ARE IN FLOOD...SEVERAL ACROSS NORTHWEST
MISSOURI EXPECTED TO REACH HISTORIC CRESTS. NUMEROUS COUNTY FLOOD AND
FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ALSO IN EFFECT. SLIGHT REPRIEVE IN RAIN DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS HAS ALLOWED JUST ENOUGH INSOLATION TO RAMP UP
CAPE VALUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MISSOURI.
STARTING TO SEE INCREASE IN HAIL REPORTS...THUS WILL HAVE TO CONTEND
WITH ISOLATED SEVERE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
LARGE SCALE ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO FEED SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING...HOWEVER SHORT TERM MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK OVERNIGHT
WHICH WILL FOCUS BETTER ATMPOSPHERIC MOISTURE FLUX TO THE WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA FOR THE BULK OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. REPRIEVE WILL BE
SHORT-LIVED AS REMNANTS OF LINEAR CONVECTIVE SSTEM THAT WILL MARCH
ACROSS KANSAS OVERNIGHT WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP OF FORECAST AROUND
SUNRISE MONDAY. WHETHER OR NOT THE AT LINE DISSIPATES QUICKLY OR
LINGERS WILL DETERMINE OUR SEVERE THREAT ON MONDAY. SHORT TERM MODELS
ARE STRUGGLING WITH MESOSCALE DETAILS...SO WILL TAKE A WAIT AND SEE
APPROACH TO RAISING SEVERE THREAT. HEAVY RAIN THREAT THOUGH APPEARS
DEFINITE GIVEN THE LONG DURATION OF MOISTURE INFLUX INTO THE AREA.
DECIDED TO EXTEND FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AND THAT
MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. SHORT DIURNAL
RANGE ON TEMPERATURES...USING GFS ENSEMBLE MINIMUMS AS GUIDE.
FOR THE EXTENDED...GFS ENSEMBLES AND ECMWF BOTH INDICATE UPPER LOW
WILL RELEASE ITS GRIP ON FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY. STARTED TRIMMING
BACK PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL BY FRIDAY...WITH DRY FORECAST FROM
SATURDAY ONWARD. FOR TEMPERATURES...USED HPC/ENSEMBLE BLEND.
24
&&
.AVIATION...
SGF WAS KIND ENOUGH TO COVER 18Z TAFS AND PROVIDED THE FOLLOWING
DISCUSSION FOR PLEASANT HILL TAFS...MORNING MCS AND OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES INDICATED A PERSISTENT EAST/NORTHEAST WIND DURING THE
EARLY AFTERNOON PERIOD. MVFR CEILINGS WILL OCCUR WITH ANY HEAVIER
CONVECTIVE CELLS. HAVE ONLY ALLOWED FOR A TEMPORARY PERIOD THROUGH
20Z AND WILL UPDATE IF CURRENT TRENDS INDICATE. HOWEVER...MORNING MCS
WILL LIKELY DAMPER ANY EXTREME INSTABILITY TRENDS...SO THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MODERATE TO STRONG. DONT EXPECT SEVERE ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE NEXT 3/6 HOURS. AFTER 00Z...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL
LIKELY INCREASE AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY FROM OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS MOVES NORTHWARD.
JLT
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY FOR MOZ001-MOZ002-MOZ003-
MOZ004-MOZ005-MOZ006-MOZ007-MOZ008-MOZ011-MOZ012-MOZ013-
MOZ014-MOZ015-MOZ016-MOZ017-MOZ020-MOZ021-MOZ022-MOZ023-
MOZ024-MOZ025-MOZ028-MOZ029-MOZ030-MOZ031-MOZ032-MOZ033-
MOZ037-MOZ038-MOZ039-MOZ040-MOZ043-MOZ044-MOZ045-MOZ046-
MOZ053-MOZ054.
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY FOR KSZ025-KSZ057-KSZ060-
KSZ102-KSZ103-KSZ104-KSZ105.Hazardous weather outlook, May 6, 1:22 PM CDT, 5 hours 24 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 122 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2007 KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040- 043>046-053-054-071830- ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE- JOHNSON KS-ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER- PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR- BUCHANAN-CLINTON-CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY- RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD- CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-COOPER-BATES-HENRY- 122 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2007 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT THIS AFTERNOON..STRONG THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLY HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF DIMES WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS OUTLOOK AREA. THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT REMAINS HIGH...WITH ONGOING FLASH FLOODING BEING REPORTED. ADDITIONALLY...WIDESPREAD RIVER FLOODING IS ONGOING. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD AND FLASH FLOOD PRODUCTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION. THIS EVENING...THE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH AS THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FOCUSES ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN KANSAS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA...HOWEVER THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE DIMINISHED AS THE HEAVY RAIN THAT HAS OCCURRED DURING THE MORNING HOURS HAS STABILIZED THE ATMOSPHERE. THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE...FURTHER AGGRAVATED THE FLOOD AND FLASH FLOOD SITUATION. OVERNIGHT...THE REMNANTS OF A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI AROUND DAYBREAK. THESE STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED REPORTS OF HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY ON MONDAY...STORMS FROM OVERNIGHT WILL DIMINISH ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI BY LATE MORNING. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN UNCAPPED THUS...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY THAT SHOULD EVOLVE INTO A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MONDAY EVENING. HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. MORE OF THE SAME WILL LIKELY OCCUR ON TUESDAY...WITH THE THREAT FOR STORMS CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY AS THE STORM SYSTEM CAUSING ALL THE STORMY WEATHER WILL BE STALLED IN THE REGION. DUE TO THE EXTENDED THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN-BEARING THUNDERSTORMS...FLOODING PROBLEMS WILL ESCALATE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A FLOOD WATCHES LIKELY WILL BE EXTENDED TO COVER THE PROLONGED THREAT OF FLOOD AND FLASH FLOODING. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT...AND AGAIN ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. 24
In the hours before
Local storm report, May 6, 6:25 PM CDT, 21 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
625 PM CDT SUN MAY 06 2007
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0619 PM HAIL DAWN 39.67N 93.63W
05/06/2007 E1.25 INCH LIVINGSTON MO AMATEUR RADIO
&&
21Local storm report, May 6, 6:26 PM CDT, 20 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
626 PM CDT SUN MAY 06 2007
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0620 PM HAIL 8 S CHILLICOTHE 39.68N 93.55W
05/06/2007 E0.88 INCH LIVINGSTON MO TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
21Local storm report, May 6, 6:38 PM CDT, 8 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
638 PM CDT SUN MAY 06 2007
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0636 PM HEAVY RAIN EXCELSIOR SPRINGS 39.35N 94.23W
05/06/2007 M3.75 INCH CLAY MO TRAINED SPOTTER
3.75 INCHES OF RAIN SINCE THIS MORNING.
&&
GAMISLocal storm report, May 6, 6:42 PM CDT, 4 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
642 PM CDT SUN MAY 06 2007
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0635 PM HAIL 5 W SEDALIA 38.70N 93.33W
05/06/2007 M0.88 INCH PETTIS MO EMERGENCY MNGR
&&
21Local storm report, May 6, 6:43 PM CDT, 3 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
643 PM CDT SUN MAY 06 2007
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0640 PM HAIL 5 W SEDALIA 38.70N 93.33W
05/06/2007 M1.00 INCH PETTIS MO EMERGENCY MNGR
&&
21Local storm report, May 6, 6:44 PM CDT, 2 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
644 PM CDT SUN MAY 06 2007
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0644 PM HAIL PAOLA 38.58N 94.87W
05/06/2007 E0.88 INCH MIAMI KS PUBLIC
&&
21The office that day
Everything else NWS Kansas City, MO issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 6, 2:38 AM CDT | Flood Watch | EAX | Atchison, Doniphan | 6 hr |
| May 6, 9:02 AM CDT | Flash Flood Watch | EAX | Atchison, Doniphan, Johnson, Leavenworth, Linn, Miami and 1 more | 28 hr |
| May 6, 9:51 AM CDT | Flash Flood Warning | EAX | Miami | 5 hr |
| May 6, 1:09 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | EAX | Nodaway | 36 min |
| May 6, 1:12 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | EAX | Atchison, Holt | 33 min |
| May 6, 2:49 AM CDT | Flash Flood Warning | EAX | Atchison, Holt, Nodaway | 8 hr |
| May 6, 3:57 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | EAX | Andrew, Holt, Nodaway | 33 min |
| May 6, 4:22 AM CDT | Flash Flood Warning | EAX | Andrew, Nodaway | 8 hr |
| May 6, 5:02 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | EAX | Gentry, Worth | 29 min |
| May 6, 5:22 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | EAX | Gentry, Harrison | 38 min |
| May 6, 6:54 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | EAX | Grundy, Linn, Livingston, Mercer, Putnam, Sullivan | 51 min |
| May 6, 9:39 AM CDT | Flash Flood Warning | EAX | Jackson | 5 hr |
| May 6, 12:16 PM CDT | Flash Flood Warning | EAX | Bates, Henry | 6 hr |
| May 6, 2:21 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | EAX | Cooper | 39 min |
| May 6, 4:38 PM CDT | Flash Flood Warning | EAX | Cass, Jackson | 6 hr |
| May 6, 5:03 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | EAX | Henry, Johnson, Pettis | 42 min |
| May 6, 5:19 PM CDT | Flash Flood Warning | EAX | Ray | 6 hr |
| May 6, 6:19 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | EAX | Johnson, Pettis | 41 min |
| May 6, 6:25 PM CDT | Flash Flood Warning | EAX | Bates, Henry | 6 hr |
| May 6, 6:32 PM CDT | Flash Flood Warning | EAX | Livingston | 6 hr |
Nearby
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Kansas, 2007Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Missouri, 2007Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2007
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.