Alert archive / Missouri / Flash Flood Warnings in 2007

Flash Flood Warning 8, NWS Kansas City, MO

May 6, 2007Bates County, Henry County, Missouri

NWS Kansas City, MO issued this flash flood warning at May 6, 2007, 6:25 PM CDT for Bates County, Henry County, Missouri. It was in force for 6 hr. 1 report came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: May 6, 2007, 6:25 PM CDT (23:25 UTC)
Expired: May 7, 2007, 12:30 AM CDT
In force: 6 hr
Issued by: NWS Kansas City, MO
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text
Flood severity: None

Counties Bates County, MO, Henry County, MO

The radar

The Pleasant Hill radar (KEAX), 56 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:24 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
May 6, 9:00 PM CDT	HEAVY RAIN 2.49	Clinton, MO	5AM-9PM

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched one storm report to this flash flood warning; the first came 35 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 12:00Z, 11.4 hours before the alert went out and 163 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1328 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -120 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1003 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 20 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 149 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 197 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WGUS53 KEAX 062327
FFWEAX
MOC013-083-070530-
/X.NEW.KEAX.FF.W.0008.070506T2325Z-070507T0530Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
625 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PLEASANT HILL HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  BATES COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI
  HENRY COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI

* UNTIL 1230 AM CDT

* AT 619 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO SHOW SLOW MOVING 
  THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. 

* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
  OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
  ADRIAN...BUTLER...CLINTON...RICH HILL...CALHOUN...DEEPWATER...
  MONTROSE AND URICH.

LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED 8 INCHES OF WATER FLOWING ACROSS 52 HIGHWAY 
NORTHEAST OF CLINTON. FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS OTHER AREAS OF BOTH 
BATES AND HENRY COUNTIES. THIS WARNING REPLACES THE PREVIOUS FLASH 
FLOOD WARNING WHICH WAS IN EFFECT FOR BOTH COUNTIES.

TO REPORT FLOODING...HAVE THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY RELAY
YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN
PLEASANT HILL.

LAT...LON 3856 9353 3823 9355 3824 9406 3806 9408
      3806 9459 3846 9461 3844 9406 3856 9405

$$

BAILEY

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Kansas City, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at May 6, 4:42 PM CDT, 1 hour 43 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 6, 4:42 PM CDT, 1 hour 43 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
442 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2007

.DISCUSSION...

SREF AND GFS ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO HOLD UPPER LOW TO THE WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF STRONG
CONVECTION EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THAT TIME.
THE PRIMARY THREAT IN THE NEAR TERM IS FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING
GIVEN OVERNIGHT AND MORNING CONVECTION LAID DOWN A LARGE SWATH OF
THREE TO FOUR INCHES OF RAINFALL BASED ON CALIBRATED WSR-88D
ESTIMATES. NUMEROUS RIVERS ARE IN FLOOD...SEVERAL ACROSS NORTHWEST
MISSOURI EXPECTED TO REACH HISTORIC CRESTS. NUMEROUS COUNTY FLOOD AND
FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ALSO IN EFFECT. SLIGHT REPRIEVE IN RAIN DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS HAS ALLOWED JUST ENOUGH INSOLATION TO RAMP UP
CAPE VALUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MISSOURI.
STARTING TO SEE INCREASE IN HAIL REPORTS...THUS WILL HAVE TO CONTEND
WITH ISOLATED SEVERE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

LARGE SCALE ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO FEED SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING...HOWEVER SHORT TERM MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK OVERNIGHT
WHICH WILL FOCUS BETTER ATMPOSPHERIC MOISTURE FLUX TO THE WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA FOR THE BULK OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. REPRIEVE WILL BE
SHORT-LIVED AS REMNANTS OF LINEAR CONVECTIVE SSTEM THAT WILL MARCH
ACROSS KANSAS OVERNIGHT WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP OF FORECAST AROUND
SUNRISE MONDAY. WHETHER OR NOT THE AT LINE DISSIPATES QUICKLY OR
LINGERS WILL DETERMINE OUR SEVERE THREAT ON MONDAY. SHORT TERM MODELS
ARE STRUGGLING WITH MESOSCALE DETAILS...SO WILL TAKE A WAIT AND SEE
APPROACH TO RAISING SEVERE THREAT. HEAVY RAIN THREAT THOUGH APPEARS
DEFINITE GIVEN THE LONG DURATION OF MOISTURE INFLUX INTO THE AREA.
DECIDED TO EXTEND FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AND THAT
MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. SHORT DIURNAL
RANGE ON TEMPERATURES...USING GFS ENSEMBLE MINIMUMS AS GUIDE.

FOR THE EXTENDED...GFS ENSEMBLES AND ECMWF BOTH INDICATE UPPER LOW
WILL RELEASE ITS GRIP ON FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY. STARTED TRIMMING
BACK PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL BY FRIDAY...WITH DRY FORECAST FROM
SATURDAY ONWARD. FOR TEMPERATURES...USED HPC/ENSEMBLE BLEND.

24

&&

.AVIATION...

SGF WAS KIND ENOUGH TO COVER 18Z TAFS AND PROVIDED THE FOLLOWING
DISCUSSION FOR PLEASANT HILL TAFS...MORNING MCS AND OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES INDICATED A PERSISTENT EAST/NORTHEAST WIND DURING THE
EARLY AFTERNOON PERIOD. MVFR CEILINGS WILL OCCUR WITH ANY HEAVIER
CONVECTIVE CELLS. HAVE ONLY ALLOWED FOR A TEMPORARY PERIOD THROUGH
20Z AND WILL UPDATE IF CURRENT TRENDS INDICATE. HOWEVER...MORNING MCS
WILL LIKELY DAMPER ANY EXTREME INSTABILITY TRENDS...SO THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MODERATE TO STRONG. DONT EXPECT SEVERE ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE NEXT 3/6 HOURS. AFTER 00Z...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL
LIKELY INCREASE AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY FROM OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS MOVES NORTHWARD.

JLT

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY FOR MOZ001-MOZ002-MOZ003-
     MOZ004-MOZ005-MOZ006-MOZ007-MOZ008-MOZ011-MOZ012-MOZ013-
     MOZ014-MOZ015-MOZ016-MOZ017-MOZ020-MOZ021-MOZ022-MOZ023-
     MOZ024-MOZ025-MOZ028-MOZ029-MOZ030-MOZ031-MOZ032-MOZ033-
     MOZ037-MOZ038-MOZ039-MOZ040-MOZ043-MOZ044-MOZ045-MOZ046-
     MOZ053-MOZ054.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY FOR KSZ025-KSZ057-KSZ060-
     KSZ102-KSZ103-KSZ104-KSZ105.

Hazardous weather outlook, May 6, 1:22 PM CDT, 5 hours 3 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
122 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2007

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-071830-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-
JOHNSON KS-ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-
PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-
BUCHANAN-CLINTON-CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-
RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-
CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
122 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL
AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THIS AFTERNOON..STRONG THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLY HAIL UP
TO THE SIZE OF DIMES WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS OUTLOOK AREA. THE FLASH
FLOOD THREAT REMAINS HIGH...WITH ONGOING FLASH FLOODING BEING
REPORTED. ADDITIONALLY...WIDESPREAD RIVER FLOODING IS ONGOING. PLEASE
REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD AND FLASH FLOOD PRODUCTS FOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION.

THIS EVENING...THE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH AS THE
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FOCUSES ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN
KANSAS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
OUTLOOK AREA...HOWEVER THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE DIMINISHED AS THE
HEAVY RAIN THAT HAS OCCURRED DURING THE MORNING HOURS HAS STABILIZED
THE ATMOSPHERE. THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE...FURTHER
AGGRAVATED THE FLOOD AND FLASH FLOOD SITUATION.

OVERNIGHT...THE REMNANTS OF A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI AROUND DAYBREAK.
THESE STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED REPORTS OF HAIL UP
TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

ON MONDAY...STORMS FROM OVERNIGHT WILL DIMINISH ACROSS EASTERN
KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI BY LATE MORNING. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
REMAIN UNCAPPED THUS...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP IN THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY THAT SHOULD EVOLVE
INTO A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MONDAY EVENING. HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE. MORE OF THE SAME WILL LIKELY OCCUR ON TUESDAY...WITH THE
THREAT FOR STORMS CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY AS THE STORM SYSTEM CAUSING
ALL THE STORMY WEATHER WILL BE STALLED IN THE REGION.

DUE TO THE EXTENDED THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN-BEARING THUNDERSTORMS...FLOODING PROBLEMS
WILL ESCALATE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A FLOOD WATCHES LIKELY WILL BE
EXTENDED TO COVER THE PROLONGED THREAT OF FLOOD AND FLASH FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT...AND AGAIN ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.

24

In the hours before

Local storm report, May 6, 5:43 PM CDT, 42 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
543 PM CDT SUN MAY 06 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0515 PM     HAIL             5 ESE CLINTON           38.35N 93.69W
05/06/2007  M0.88 INCH       HENRY              MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

21

Special weather statement, May 6, 5:43 PM CDT, 42 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
543 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2007

MOZ014-015-022-023-031-062330-
CALDWELL-CARROLL-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-LIVINGSTON-
543 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR EASTERN CALDWELL...LIVINGSTON...
NORTHWESTERN CARROLL...SOUTHEASTERN DAVIESS AND SOUTHWESTERN GRUNDY
COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM CDT...

AT 541 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR BRAYMER...OR 18 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
HAMILTON...MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

BAILEY

Local storm report, May 6, 5:51 PM CDT, 34 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
551 PM CDT SUN MAY 06 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1227 PM     FLASH FLOOD      OVERLAND PARK           38.91N 94.68W
05/06/2007                   JOHNSON            KS   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            WATER RESCUE AT 175TH STREET BETWEEN NALL AND MISSION
            ROADS...DUE TO HIGH WATER.

&&

GAMIS

Local storm report, May 6, 5:59 PM CDT, 26 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
559 PM CDT SUN MAY 06 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0557 PM     FLASH FLOOD      5 NE CLINTON            38.42N 93.70W
05/06/2007                   HENRY              MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ESTIMATED 8 INCHES OF WATER FLOWING OVER HWY 52. CLOSURE
            POSSIBLE.

&&

21

Local storm report, May 6, 6:16 PM CDT, 9 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
616 PM CDT SUN MAY 06 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0614 PM     FLASH FLOOD      5 S KANSAS CITY         39.05N 94.55W
05/06/2007                   JACKSON            MO   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            2 WATER RESCUES IN PROGRESS. BRUSH CREEK AND ELMWOOD.
            63RD AND PASEO.

&&

21

Local storm report, May 6, 6:25 PM CDT, 0 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
625 PM CDT SUN MAY 06 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0619 PM     HAIL             DAWN                    39.67N 93.63W
05/06/2007  E1.25 INCH       LIVINGSTON         MO   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

21

The office that day

Everything else NWS Kansas City, MO issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 6, 1:09 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Nodaway	36 min
May 6, 1:12 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Atchison, Holt	33 min
May 6, 2:38 AM CDT	Flood Watch	EAX	Andrew, Atchison, Buchanan, DeKalb, Gentry, Holt and 2 more	6 hr
May 6, 2:49 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	EAX	Atchison, Holt, Nodaway	8 hr
May 6, 3:57 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Andrew, Holt, Nodaway	33 min
May 6, 4:22 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	EAX	Andrew, Nodaway	8 hr
May 6, 5:02 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Gentry, Worth	29 min
May 6, 5:22 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Gentry, Harrison	38 min
May 6, 6:54 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Grundy, Linn, Livingston, Mercer, Putnam, Sullivan	51 min
May 6, 9:02 AM CDT	Flash Flood Watch	EAX	Adair, Andrew, Atchison, Bates, Buchanan, Caldwell and 31 more	28 hr
May 6, 9:39 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	EAX	Jackson	5 hr
May 6, 9:51 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	EAX	Cass	5 hr
May 6, 12:16 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	EAX	Bates, Henry	6 hr
May 6, 2:21 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Cooper	39 min
May 6, 4:38 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	EAX	Cass, Jackson	6 hr
May 6, 5:03 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Henry, Johnson, Pettis	42 min
May 6, 5:19 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	EAX	Ray	6 hr
May 6, 6:19 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Johnson, Pettis	41 min
May 6, 6:32 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	EAX	Livingston	6 hr
May 6, 6:46 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Cass	44 min

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in Missouri, 2007 Every flash flood warning in 2007

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.