Severe Thunderstorm Warning 9, NWS Quad Cities, IA

000 
WWUS53 KDVN 311959
SVSDVN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
257 PM CDT SAT MAR 31 2007

IAC107-312030-
/O.CON.KDVN.SV.W.0009.000000T0000Z-070331T2030Z/
KEOKUK IA-
257 PM CDT SAT MAR 31 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 PM CDT
FOR KEOKUK COUNTY...

AT 255 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS REPORTED CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70
MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY NEAR HEDRICK...OR ABOUT 10
MILES NORTHEAST OF OTTUMWA...MOVING NORTH AT 50 MPH. 

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  HAYESVILLE AROUND 305 PM CDT...
  DELTA...SIGOURNEY AND 6 MILES WEST OF SIG-NOR FIELD AIRPORT AROUND
  310 PM CDT...
  WHAT CHEER AND SIGOURNEY IOWA AIRPORT AROUND 315 PM CDT...
  KESWICK...THORNBURG...WEBSTER AND 6 MILES EAST OF GIBSON AROUND 320
  PM CDT...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT SATURDAY EVENING
FOR EASTERN IOWA.

LAT...LON 4116 9242 4116 9217 4150 9206 4151 9242

$$

DLF

000 
WWUS53 KDVN 312034
SVSDVN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
332 PM CDT SAT MAR 31 2007

IAC107-312042-
/O.EXP.KDVN.SV.W.0009.000000T0000Z-070331T2030Z/
KEOKUK IA-
332 PM CDT SAT MAR 31 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR KEOKUK COUNTY EXPIRED AT 330
PM CDT...

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM HAS MOVED NORTH OUT OF KEOKUK COUNTY.  THE 
THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE WITH ADDITIONAL 
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH 5 PM.  IN 
ADDITION TO THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT...THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL 
PRODUCE RAINFALL HEAVY ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME STREET AND SMALL STREAM 
FLOODING.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT SATURDAY EVENING
FOR EASTERN IOWA.

LAT...LON 4116 9242 4116 9217 4150 9206 4151 9242

$$

DLF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
320 AM CDT SAT MAR 31 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG SPRING STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN TO THE
REGION TODAY INTO SUNDAY. COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BEFORE YET ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
AFFECTS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. COLD AIR MOVING IN
BEHIND THE SECOND STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND POSSIBLY SOME SNOW THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
TO SUM UP THIS SYSTEM...IMPRESSIVE. ALL MODELS SHOW A RAPID DEEPENING
OF THE SFC LOW WITH IT REACHING MAX INTENSITY JUST PRIOR TO SUNSET.
FLOW COMING OFF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL AID IN INCREASING THE OVERALL
BAROCLINICITY OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWFA. AS
THE MAIN ENERGY ARRIVES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WIDESPREAD PRECIP
SHOULD BREAK OUT ACROSS THE AREA. DRY SLOT TO REMAIN WEST OF THE CWFA
THROUGH SUNSET AND PROFILES SUGGEST VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DRY AIR
ALOFT. THIS LACK OF DRY AIR COMBINED WITH VERY LITTLE (IF THAT)
INSOLATION SUGGESTS THE SEVERE THREAT TO BE VERY LOW. MAY SEE SOME
SUB-SEVERE HAIL THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLATED
MARGINAL HAIL IF A STORM REALLY GETS GOING.

PRECIP SHOULD REALLY SHUT OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT AS BEST SUPPORT MOVES
AWAY FROM THE REGION. LINGERING SHRA POSSIBLE THROUGH DAWN SUNDAY
WITH THE UPPER LOW SO CLOSE. THERE SHOULD BE ANOTHER LARGE
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT OF 15-20 DEGREES ACROSS THE CWFA AGAIN TODAY.
...08...

.LONGER TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY...
ANOTHER DYNAMIC SYSTEM LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH EXCEPTIONALLY
COLD TEMPERATURES REST OF NEXT WEEK PRODUCING HARD FREEZES AND RISK
OF SOME SNOW...ESPECIALLY MID WEEK AND INTO FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...COLD AIR AND WRAPAROUND MOISTURE FROM
DEPARTING SATURDAY SYSTEM TO AFFECT CWFA TIL EVENING HOURS.  HAVE
LOWERED TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 34 NEARER TO UPPER
LOW WHICH STILL COULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES TOO MILD ALONG AND NORTH OF
I-80. GUSTY WEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TO
MAKE FOR A COOL AND BLUSTERY DAY. ANY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS TO BE
LIGHT DUE TO DEPTH OF CLOUDS AND LIMITED FORCING. SUNDAY NIGHT...
SKIES TO CLEAR FROM SW TO NE WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES FAR NE SECTIONS TIL MID EVENING.  WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT
SUPPORTING FAVORABLE RADIATIVE COOLING CONDITIONS AND HAVE LOWERED
MIN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES MOST LOCATIONS WITH INSPECTION OF BL DECOUPLE
TOOLS SUGGESTING ANOTHER 3 TO 5 DEGREES LOWERING STILL POSSIBLE THAT
COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT FROST AND LOCALIZED FOG NORTH 1/2 OF AREA
BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.  PASS TEMPERATURE ISSUES TO LATER SHIFTS.

MONDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND SOME RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF DIGGING
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED STRONG BAROCLINIC SYSTEM OUT OF PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...HAVE PUSHED MAX TEMPS UP A FEW MORE DEGREES.  BY LATE PM
EAST-WEST BOUNDARY SETS UP ALONG AND SOUTH OF IOWA/MISSOURI BORDER
ALLOWING FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP NORTHWEST SECTIONS
ALONG 850/700 BOUNDARY.  THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL NOT SUGGESTED DUE TO
INITIAL LIMITED MOISTURE ATTM.  LATEST SUITE OF SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO
SLOW THIS NEXT WAVE WHICH HAVE ALREADY TRIED TO INCORPORATE INTO
FORECAST. THIS MEANS FORCING TO AFFECT MOST OF AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. LIGHT WINDS AND MILD TEMPERATURES TO MAKE FOR A NICE DAY.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...ALL SOLUTIONS TRENDING SLOWER AND IF
NORMAL MODEL TENDENCIES ARE FOLLOWED...NEXT 24-36 HRS SHOULD SEE
FURTHER SLOWING OF SYSTEM BY ANOTHER 3-6 HOURS AS SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
SFC WAVE TO DEVELOP IN KANSAS LATE MONDAY MOVING ACROSS CWFA TUESDAY
THIS WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY ALONG
WARM FRONT AND ALSO WITH PASSING COLD FRONT.  KEPT 40 POPS BUT GOOD
FORCING AND OPEN GULF WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS OF 50-55F AND 850 MB
DEWPOINTS 6+C SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF AT LEAST LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN TOTALS AND EVENTUALLY HIGHER POPS. INITIAL LOOK AT SEVERE
THRESHOLD TOOLS SUGGEST SOME SEVERE RISK SUGGESTED DUE TO DRY AIR
ALOFT WITH MAIN THREAT HAIL AS OFTEN IS CASE IN EARLY SPRING. WILL
MENTION THIS IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PRODUCT.../CHIHWODVN/.

TUESDAY...AFTER SHOWERS AND STORMS...REGION TO TURN SHARPLY COLDER
AND WINDY BEHIND STRONG COLD FRONT WITH RAPIDLY FALLING TEMPERATURES
WHICH LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO ACCOUNT FOR AS KEPT DIURNAL TREND
ATTM. KEPT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FAR NORTH OVERNIGHT.  POTENTIAL FOR NEAR
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA AS COLD AIR MOVES IN TO BE MONITORED NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

WEDNESDAY...ADDED SNOW SHOWERS AS 850 TEMPS TO CRASH INTO -8 TO -12C
OVER AREA ON ALL SOLUTIONS WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES OF 34F.
LOWERED MAX TEMPS INTO 40 TO 45F AREA BUT INSPECTION OF THERMAL
FIELDS SUGGESTS STILL MOST LOCATIONS NEED LOWERING ANOTHER 2 TO 4
DEGREES. AIR ALOFT SO COLD THAT EVEN WITH EARLY APRIL SUNSHINE ANY
PRECIPITATION TO BE IN FORM OF SNOW...SNOW BALLS OR POSSIBLY SLEET.
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND UPPER DISTURBANCES WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND BL BUOYANCY FROM HEATING SUGGEST POPCORN LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY MAINLY NORTH 1/2 TO 2/3.  MOMENTUM TRANSFER TOOLS
SUPPORTS GUSTY WINDS OF 35-40+ MPH ASSOCIATED WITH SNOW SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SOME CLEARING TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CRASH INTO
MID TO UPPER 20S WITH SOME INDICATIONS ANOTHER 2 TO 4 DEGREES LOWER
SUPPORTED.  THIS MEANS A HARD FREEZE FOR SEVERAL HOURS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY WITH DAYTIME SNOW SHOWERS
AND FLURRIES.  MADE NO CHANGES TO FORECAST...WILL SUGGEST LOWERING
TEMPERATURES ROUGHLY A COUPLE OF CATEGORIES...OR ABOUT 5 DEGREES
MOST AREAS AND SHSN AND FLURRIES.  GUSTY WINDS ALSO SUGGESTED DUE TO
STRONG MOMENTUM TRANSFER FROM APRIL SUNSHINE.

LATE THIS FRIDAY INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.../APRIL 5-8/...AS
DISCUSSED NEARLY WEEK AGO...VERY COLD PERIOD STARTING CIRCA APRIL
4-5 WITH RISK OF SNOW. LONG RANGE TOOLS AND GUIDANCE BLEND SUGGEST
POTENTIAL FOR VERY COLD STORM SYSTEM TO AFFECT AREA WITH SOME SNOW
POSSIBLE.  THIS WILL TAKE ANOTHER 3 TO 5 DAYS TO BETTER ASSESS...BUT
SIGNAL ATTM IS MODERATE TO STRONG PER LOCAL TECHNIQUES AND TOOLS
USED.  THEIR IS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM WHICH
PAST 4 PLUS DAYS SUGGESTED NEAR/IN FORECAST AREA.  ..NICHOLS..

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

08/NICHOLS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1056 AM CDT SAT MAR 31 2007

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-011100-
BENTON IA-BUCHANAN IA-BUREAU IL-CARROLL IL-CEDAR IA-CLARK MO-
CLINTON IA-DELAWARE IA-DES MOINES IA-DUBUQUE IA-HANCOCK IL-
HENDERSON IL-HENRY IA-HENRY IL-IOWA IA-JACKSON IA-JEFFERSON IA-
JO DAVIESS IL-JOHNSON IA-JONES IA-KEOKUK IA-LEE IA-LINN IA-LOUISA IA-
MCDONOUGH IL-MERCER IL-MUSCATINE IA-PUTNAM IL-ROCK ISLAND IL-
SCOTLAND MO-SCOTT IA-STEPHENSON IL-VAN BUREN IA-WARREN IL-
WASHINGTON IA-WHITESIDE IL-
1056 AM CDT SAT MAR 31 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EAST
CENTRAL IOWA...NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.  THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER
RISK WILL BE SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM MACOMB THROUGH BURLINGTON AND
MONTICELLO TO MANCHESTER THIS AFTERNOON. IN THIS AREA CONDITIONS WILL
BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES.  NORTHEAST OF THIS AREA THERE WILL BE A RISK OF
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS DURING THE EVENING
HOURS.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OR INTENSIFY AHEAD
OF A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING NORTH THROUGH EASTERN NEBRASKA AND
WESTERN IOWA THE REST OF TODAY. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
THE EXTENT OF THE SEVERE WEATHER PRODUCED BY THESE STORMS WILL DEPEND
ON HOW MUCH TEMPERATURES CAN WARM EAST OF THE STORM SYSTEM ACROSS
NORTHERN MISSOURI CENTRAL AND EASTERN IOWA. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS
THAT THERE WILL BE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO ALLOW SUFFICIENT
WARMING FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER...THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WHICH COULD AGGRAVATE ANY ONGOING RIVER FLOODING
OR CAUSE SOME MINOR URBAN OR SMALL STREAM FLOODING. FOR INFORMATION
ON CURRENT AND EXPECTED RIVER CONDITIONS SEE THE LATEST RIVER
AND FLOOD STATEMENTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE EPISODES
OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS.  CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE SOME OF THE
STRONGEST STORMS MAY APPROACH OR BECOME SEVERE WITH THE PRIMARY RISK
LARGE HAIL. INTERESTED INDIVIDUALS SHOULD MONITOR THIS PRODUCT FOR
FURTHER UPDATES ON THE RISK AND LOCATION OF ANY HAZARDOUS AND SEVERE
WEATHER FOR THIS EVENT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

08/NICHOLS/DLF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1116 AM CDT SAT MAR 31 2007

IAZ041-042-052>054-066-ILZ001-002-007-311830-
DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-LINN-JONES-JACKSON-CLINTON-JO DAVIESS-STEPHENSON-
CARROLL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MANCHESTER...DUBUQUE...CEDAR RAPIDS...
ANAMOSA...MAQUOKETA...CLINTON...GALENA...FREEPORT...MOUNT CARROLL
1116 AM CDT SAT MAR 31 2007

...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING...

SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING OVER EAST CENTRAL
IOWA LATE THIS MORNING. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE QUICKLY
NORTH...PRODUCING ONE HALF INCH HAIL AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

ONE THE STRONGER STORMS WAS OVER EASTERN JONES COUNTY AND WILL
MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE SCOTCH GROVE...CASCADE AND DYERSVILLE AREAS
BY 1200 PM.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
150 PM CDT SAT MAR 31 2007

IAZ040-041-051-052-063-064-076-077-087-088-098-099-MOZ009-010-
312000-
BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-BENTON-LINN-IOWA-JOHNSON-KEOKUK-WASHINGTON-
JEFFERSON-HENRY IA-VAN BUREN-LEE-SCOTLAND-CLARK-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...INDEPENDENCE...MANCHESTER...VINTON...
CEDAR RAPIDS...MARENGO...IOWA CITY...SIGOURNEY...WASHINGTON...
FAIRFIELD...MOUNT PLEASANT...KEOSAUQUA....FORT MADISON...
MEMPHIS...KAHOKA
150 PM CDT SAT MAR 31 2007

...SEVERE WEATHER TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...

AN UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINNING ACROSS
WESTERN IOWA HAS ALREADY PRODUCED SEVERE WEATHER IN THE OMAHA
AREA. AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING IN NORTH
CENTRAL MISSOURI.

A TORNADO WATCH HAS JUST BEEN ISSUED WHICH COVERS EASTERN IOWA...
EXTERME NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOME ADJACENT PARTS OF EXTREME WESTERN
ILLINOIS. IF YOU ARE IN OR NEAR TO THE TORNADO WATCH AREA...BE
PREPARED FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER. THESE ARE FAST MOVING STORMS
WHICH COULD APPROACH YOUR LOCATION QUICKLY.

WOLF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
239 PM CDT SAT MAR 31 2007

MOZ009-312045-
SCOTLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...MEMPHIS
239 PM CDT SAT MAR 31 2007

...STRONG HAIL-PRODUCING THUNDERSTORM MOVING INTO SCOTLAND COUNTY...

AT 234 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ONE-HALF INCH SIZE HAIL HEADING
TOWARD SCOTLAND COUNTY. THE STORM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE COUNTY
BETWEEN 245 AND 315 PM.

A SECOND STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE DOWNING AND
KILWINNING AREAS THROUGH 3 PM.

HAIL AND LIGHTNING ARE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS. IF
EITHER OF THESE STORMS INTENSIFY...BE PREPARED FOR A POSSIBLE
WARNING.

WOLF