Severe Thunderstorm Warning 11, NWS Quad Cities, IA

000 
WWUS53 KDVN 312043
SVSDVN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
342 PM CDT SAT MAR 31 2007

IAC101-177-312052-
/O.EXP.KDVN.SV.W.0011.000000T0000Z-070331T2045Z/
VAN BUREN IA-JEFFERSON IA-
342 PM CDT SAT MAR 31 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR JEFFERSON AND VAN BUREN
COUNTIES EXPIRES AT 345 PM CDT...

THE THUNDERSTORM THAT WAS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE WEATHER HAS 
WEAKENED. THEREFORE THE SEVERETHUNDERSTORM WARNING WILL B ALLOWED TO 
EXPIRE.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON.  ANY
THUNDERSTORM THAT MOVES IN WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SEVERE
WEATHER.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT SATURDAY EVENING
FOR EASTERN IOWA.

LAT...LON 4079 9220 4080 9201 4116 9187 4116 9219

$$

DLF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
314 PM CDT SAT MAR 31 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG SURFACE LOW WAS JUST WEST OF OMA AT 19Z WITH WARM FRONT
EXTENDING EAST ROUGHLY ALONG I-80. SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...
TEMPERATURES HAD RISEN INTO LOWER 70S IN DVN CWA WITH DEWPOINTS IN
60S. TO NORTH...TEMPS WERE IN UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S WITH BRISK E-SE
WINDS. WV IMAGERY INDICATED UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST S-SW OF SURFACE
POSITION IN SW NEB WITH STRONG DRY PUNCH AND 90 KT UPPER JET LIFTING
OUT OF CENTRAL PLAINS. WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING NEAR
THE CYCLONE AND IN WARM SECTOR TO ITS SE WITH FEW WEAKER SHOWERS
ALONG ELEVATED WARM FRONT TO NORTH INTO SE WI.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
WITH SEVERE WEATHER ON-GOING AND TORNADO WATCH IN PLACE...LIMITED
DISCUSSION THIS AFTERNOON. BEST SHORT TERM SEVERE POTENTIAL TO BE
GREATEST WEST OF HIGHWAY 218 THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON WITH TORNADIC
POTENTIAL AT THIS TIME LOOKING GREATEST ALONG WARM FRONT WEST OF
IOWA CITY TO CEDAR RAPIDS LINE. IN THIS AREA...BREAKS OF SUNSHINE
HAVE MAXIMIZED LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY. ALSO STORM RELATIVE HELICITY
AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT FLOW STRONGEST AT THIS TIME. SEVERE RISK
PHASES TO MORE LINEAR MODE AS NORTH TO SOUTH COLD FRONT ACROSS
WESTERN MO LIFTS NORTHEAST UNDER UPPER DRY SLOT FOR SEVERE WIND
POTENTIAL ALONG MS RIVER AND EASTWARD INTO EVENING. STRONG WINDS AT
SURFACE NOTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE ACROSS CWA TONIGHT
WITH POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF GUSTS OVER 40 MPH THIS EVENING.

SUNDAY...SURFACE LOW LIFTS INTO NORTHERN WI...LEAVING COOLER SHOWERY
WEATHER WITH BRISK WINDS ACROSS CWA. TEMPERATURES KEPT AT LOW END OF
GUIDANCE WITH 50S NORTH TO AROUND 60 SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY....
TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER BRIEFLY EARLY IN WEEK...THEN PATTERN SHIFT
TO BRING RETURN OF MORE EARLY TYPICAL SPRINGLIKE TEMPERATURES AND
EVEN POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SNOWFLAKES MID WEEK. PATTERN SHIFT TO OCCUR
AS DEEPENING UPPER LOW PASSES NORTH INTO GREAT LAKES WED AMPLIFIES
UPPER PATTERN TO NW FLOW LATE WEEK WITH H8 TEMPERATURES PLUNGING TO
BELOW 10 DEG C MID WEEK. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO FORECAST WITH
DECENT CONTINUITY AND AGREEMENT IN MEDIUM RANGE MODELS. DAY
7...SATURDAY BROUGHT IN DRY FOR NOW...BUT PRECIP MAY NEED TO BE
ADDED AS 12Z RUNS NOW SUGGESTING UPPER LOW AND SURFACE COLD FRONT
DIVING SE OUT OF CANADA AFTERNOON INTO SAT NIGHT.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

SHEETS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1056 AM CDT SAT MAR 31 2007

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-011100-
BENTON IA-BUCHANAN IA-BUREAU IL-CARROLL IL-CEDAR IA-CLARK MO-
CLINTON IA-DELAWARE IA-DES MOINES IA-DUBUQUE IA-HANCOCK IL-
HENDERSON IL-HENRY IA-HENRY IL-IOWA IA-JACKSON IA-JEFFERSON IA-
JO DAVIESS IL-JOHNSON IA-JONES IA-KEOKUK IA-LEE IA-LINN IA-LOUISA IA-
MCDONOUGH IL-MERCER IL-MUSCATINE IA-PUTNAM IL-ROCK ISLAND IL-
SCOTLAND MO-SCOTT IA-STEPHENSON IL-VAN BUREN IA-WARREN IL-
WASHINGTON IA-WHITESIDE IL-
1056 AM CDT SAT MAR 31 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EAST
CENTRAL IOWA...NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.  THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER
RISK WILL BE SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM MACOMB THROUGH BURLINGTON AND
MONTICELLO TO MANCHESTER THIS AFTERNOON. IN THIS AREA CONDITIONS WILL
BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES.  NORTHEAST OF THIS AREA THERE WILL BE A RISK OF
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS DURING THE EVENING
HOURS.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OR INTENSIFY AHEAD
OF A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING NORTH THROUGH EASTERN NEBRASKA AND
WESTERN IOWA THE REST OF TODAY. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
THE EXTENT OF THE SEVERE WEATHER PRODUCED BY THESE STORMS WILL DEPEND
ON HOW MUCH TEMPERATURES CAN WARM EAST OF THE STORM SYSTEM ACROSS
NORTHERN MISSOURI CENTRAL AND EASTERN IOWA. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS
THAT THERE WILL BE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO ALLOW SUFFICIENT
WARMING FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER...THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WHICH COULD AGGRAVATE ANY ONGOING RIVER FLOODING
OR CAUSE SOME MINOR URBAN OR SMALL STREAM FLOODING. FOR INFORMATION
ON CURRENT AND EXPECTED RIVER CONDITIONS SEE THE LATEST RIVER
AND FLOOD STATEMENTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE EPISODES
OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS.  CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE SOME OF THE
STRONGEST STORMS MAY APPROACH OR BECOME SEVERE WITH THE PRIMARY RISK
LARGE HAIL. INTERESTED INDIVIDUALS SHOULD MONITOR THIS PRODUCT FOR
FURTHER UPDATES ON THE RISK AND LOCATION OF ANY HAZARDOUS AND SEVERE
WEATHER FOR THIS EVENT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

08/NICHOLS/DLF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
239 PM CDT SAT MAR 31 2007

MOZ009-312045-
SCOTLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...MEMPHIS
239 PM CDT SAT MAR 31 2007

...STRONG HAIL-PRODUCING THUNDERSTORM MOVING INTO SCOTLAND COUNTY...

AT 234 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ONE-HALF INCH SIZE HAIL HEADING
TOWARD SCOTLAND COUNTY. THE STORM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE COUNTY
BETWEEN 245 AND 315 PM.

A SECOND STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE DOWNING AND
KILWINNING AREAS THROUGH 3 PM.

HAIL AND LIGHTNING ARE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS. IF
EITHER OF THESE STORMS INTENSIFY...BE PREPARED FOR A POSSIBLE
WARNING.

WOLF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
259 PM CDT SAT MAR 31 2007

IAZ051-312100-
BENTON-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...VINTON
259 PM CDT SAT MAR 31 2007

...THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL IN BENTON COUNTY...

THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER BENTON COUNTY WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL THROUGH 4 PM. RAINFALL
RATES AROUND 1 INCH PER HOUR COULD RESULT IN PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADS AND IN LOW-LYING AREAS. HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH AND WIND
GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE LIKELY TOO.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BENTON COUNTY UNTIL 9 PM.

WOLF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
259 PM CDT SAT MAR 31 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0258 PM     HAIL             MEMPHIS                 40.46N 92.17W
03/31/2007  E0.25 INCH       SCOTLAND           MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER REPORTS PEA SIZE HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN.

&&

MIKEZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
311 PM CDT SAT MAR 31 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0250 PM     HAIL             HEDRICK                 41.17N 92.31W
03/31/2007  M0.88 INCH       KEOKUK             IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NICKEL SIZE HAIL FELL FOR 5 MINUTES STARTING AT 250 PM.

0300 PM     HAIL             RUTLEDGE                40.31N 92.09W
03/31/2007  M0.25 INCH       SCOTLAND           MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PEA SIZE HAIL FELL FOR ONE MINUTE.

&&

JH2

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
314 PM CDT SAT MAR 31 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0311 PM     HAIL             VINTON                  42.16N 92.03W
03/31/2007  E0.25 INCH       BENTON             IA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            RELAYED REPORT FROM SPOTTER ON EAST SIDE OF TOWN.

&&

MIKEZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
318 PM CDT SAT MAR 31 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0315 PM     TSTM WND GST     SIGOURNEY               41.33N 92.21W
03/31/2007  E60 MPH          KEOKUK             IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER REPORTED ESTIMATED 55 TO 60 MPH WINDS, HEAVY RAIN
            AND PENNY SIZE HAIL.

&&

MIKEZ