Severe Thunderstorm Warning 63, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
313 AM CDT SAT MAY 5 2007

.DISCUSSION...

DAYS 1-2...

THE 00Z RAOBS SHOWED AN INTENSE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NEVADA WITH
125KT JET STREAK ON THE BACK SIDE. THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN DIGGING
SE OVERNIGHT AND WILL EJECT RAPIDLY NNE ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS TODAY. AS THIS TROUGH APPROACHES, MID LEVEL(700-600MB) COLD
ADVECTION, ALONG WITH 65 TO 70F SFC DEWPOINTS AND DAYTIME HEATING
WILL LEAD TO EXPLOSIVE INSTABILITY AND WEAK CAPPING. SEVERE
STORMS MAY ERUPT AS EARLY AS 12-14Z AS THE MID LEVEL COOLING
APPROACHES THE DRYLINE ALONG AND EAST OF A LBL TO GCK LINE.
MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM GCK SHOW VERY LOW LCL HEIGHTS AND NO
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION BY 12Z. MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM DDC ARE
STRONGLY CAPPED AT 12Z. SO IT APPEARS THAT STRONG CAP REMOVAL
WILL OCCUR FROM WEST TO EAST BY 12Z. SURFACE BASED CAPES WILL
REMAIN AROUND 3000 J/KG THIS MORNING. SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL OCCUR
ACROSS WESTERN KS IN THE AFTERNOON AS Q-G FORCING SHIFTS INTO THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. HOWEVER, WITH WEAK CAPPING AND
EXPLOSIVE INSTABILITY, WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE SHOULD
BE ENOUGH FOR A CONTINUATION OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SUPERCELL
STORMS AFTER 18Z ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM WAKEENEY TO DODGE
CITY. 70-80KT 500MB WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR RAPID STORM MOTION(AT
LEAST FOR THIS PART OF THE COUNTRY) TO THE NNE AT 4O TO 50 MPH.
THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE VERY LARGE HAIL AND EVEN TORNADOES.
GIVEN THE STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND HIGH CAPES, STRONG
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ANY TIME TODAY. THE SURFACE WINDS MAY BACK
MORE TO THE SE BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES. THIS WILL KEEP THE SEVERE STORM CHANCES GOING
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

VERY FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE GRIDS AS THE PREVIOUS FCST
LOOKS ON TRACK. STORMS WILL LINGER SUNDAY ALONG A SLOW MOVING
FRONT. SOME OF THESE COULD ALSO BE SEVERE, ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF
A LINE FROM MEADE TO DODGE CITY TO HAYS.

DAYS 3-7...

NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE DAY 3-7 PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...

A SCATTERED TO BROKEN DECK OF LOW CLOUD WILL PERSIST THIS
MORNING. GIVEN THE FAIRLY WARM AIRMASS, CEILINGS(IN AREAS WITH
BROKEN CLOUD COVER) WILL GENERALLY STAY ABOVE 2000FT DESPITE THE
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  82  63  72  54 /  40  40  60  50
GCK  81  57  68  50 /  30  20  50  40
EHA  79  53  65  49 /  10  10  40  30
LBL  82  58  69  50 /  30  20  50  40
HYS  80  65  73  55 /  40  70  70  60
P28  81  68  77  59 /  30  70  70  60

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

FN24/24

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
333 AM CDT SAT MAY 5 2007

KSZ030-031-043>046-062>066-075>081-085>090-060845-
TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-PAWNEE-
STAFFORD-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-PRATT-STEVENS-
SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER-
333 AM CDT SAT MAY 5 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
KANSAS...SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

STORMS WILL ERUPT AFTER 7 AM THIS MORNING ALONG A LINE FROM LIBERAL
TO GARDEN CITY. THESE STORMS WILL SPREAD EAST THIS MORNING AND
THIS AFTERNOON. THE SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT AND WILL CONTAIN VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES. A FEW
STRONG TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY ERUPT AGAIN ON SUNDAY WITH LARGE
HAIL AND EVEN TORNADOES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTERS WILL BE NEEDED FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH
TONIGHT.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC

KSZ061-074-084-060845-
HAMILTON-STANTON-MORTON-
333 AM CDT SAT MAY 5 2007 /233 AM MDT SAT MAY 5 2007/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTERS WILL PROBABLY NOT BE NEEDED SINCE STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EAST OF THE AREA TODAY.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1119 AM CDT SAT MAY 05 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1033 PM     TORNADO          HOPEWELL                37.80N 98.98W
05/04/2007                   PRATT              KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            *** 1 FATAL, 1 INJ *** HUSBAND KILLED AND WIFE INJURED
            WHEN HOUSE WAS DESTROYED. 2 HOUSES COMPLETELY DESTROYED,
            ONE GONE FROM ITS FOUNDATION AND NO REMAINS FROM THE
            HOUSE VISIBLE. ANOTHER HOUSE WITH ROOF RIPPED OFF, 1 MORE
            HOUSE PARTIALLY DESTROYED. NUMEROUS CENTER PIVOT
            IRRIGATION SYSTEMS MANGLED UP IN BALLS. TIME ESTIMATED.

&&

BURKE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1154 AM CDT SAT MAY 05 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 PM     HAIL             2 NE FORD               37.66N 99.73W
05/04/2007  E1.00 INCH       FORD               KS   PUBLIC

0900 PM     HAIL             2 SSW GARFIELD          38.05N 99.26W
05/04/2007  E1.75 INCH       PAWNEE             KS   PUBLIC

0925 PM     HAIL             4 NW MULLINVILLE        37.63N 99.53W
05/04/2007  E1.25 INCH       KIOWA              KS   PUBLIC

0930 PM     HAIL             2 ENE SPEARVILLE        37.86N 99.72W
05/04/2007  E1.00 INCH       FORD               KS   PUBLIC

0930 PM     HAIL             4 NE OFFERLE            37.93N 99.51W
05/04/2007  E1.75 INCH       EDWARDS            KS   PUBLIC

1000 PM     HAIL             1 N ROZEL               38.21N 99.40W
05/04/2007  E1.00 INCH       PAWNEE             KS   PUBLIC

1205 AM     HAIL             4 NNE LARNED            38.24N 99.07W
05/05/2007  E1.00 INCH       PAWNEE             KS   PUBLIC

&&

BURKE