Severe Thunderstorm Warning 46, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
327 PM CDT FRI MAY 4 2007

.DISCUSSION...

DAYS 1-2...

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE AREAL COVERAGE AND TIMING OF
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES AGAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

THE UA ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED A TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
WESTERN STATES WHICH WAS NO SURPRISE GIVEN THE 160 KNOT SPEED MAX
OVER KSFO AND EVEN STRONGER WINDS OFF THE COAST OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE ANOTHER WEAKER WAVE WAS MOVING THROUGH
WESTERN KANSAS. THIS SECOND WAVE HAD KICKED OFF SOME ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NEBRASKA. AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING NORTH ACROSS WEST CENTRAL INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS, AND
ALSO TO THE WEST ALONG THE COLO/NEW MEX BORDER. A LOOSELY DEFINED
DRYLINE EXTENDED FROM SOUTHWEST KANSAS INTO THE EAST TEXAS
PANHANDLE.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS IS INCREASING AS THE
300 MB JET BEGINS TO NOSE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. DEWPOINTS AT KDDC
HAVE STARTED TO DROP WITH WINDS COMING AROUND TO SSW. NOT MUCH
CONVECTION BUBBLING AROUND THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON YET PER VIS SAT
LOOPS BUT THINK THAT THE BEST LOCATION FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR
CWA WILL BE AROUND OR JUST EAST OF HIGHWAY 283, ALONG THE DRYLINE.
DO NOT THINK COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BE ALL THAT GREAT SO WILL
KEEP POPS IN THE VERY LOW CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY THIS
EVENING. ALONG THE FRONT OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA, THE
AIRMASS HAS STAYED FAIRLY STABLE. THINK THAT ANY STORMS THAT MAY
IMPACT THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WILL BE DEVELOPING OFF THE
FRONT RANGE AND MOVING TOWARD WESTERN KANSAS THIS EVENING. MOST OF
THESE STORMS MAY STAY TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE AREA AS
THAT IS WHERE THE BEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION
OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET WILL BE. THE DRYLINE WILL LIKELY BE
RETREATING WESTWARD THIS EVENING. THERE IS A SLIM CHANCE THAT A
STORM COULD DEVELOP ALONG IT AS IT RETREATS, AT LEAST FOR A FEW
HOURS THIS EVENING.

ON SATURDAY, SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE THAT THE DRYLINE WILL BE
IN THE VICINITY OF WAKEENEY TO JETMORE AND MINNEOLA BY AFTERNOON.
MODELS INDICATE EVEN STRONGER MID AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS ROTATING
OUT OF THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. THE DRYLINE IS FORECAST TO BE
LOCATED FROM ROUGHLY JUST WEST OF WAKEENEY TO JETMORE AND DODGE
CITY BY AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT FORECAST POPS FOR THAT TIME PERIOD
HAVE A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON THIS WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE
EASTERN CWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SO ONLY MADE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS THERE. ON SUNDAY, THE MODELS SHOW A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHING OUT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS IN RESPONSE TO A MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT LIFTS OUT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. HIGHEST
POPS ON SUNDAY WILL AGAIN BE OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
CWA ALONG AND EAST OF THE FRONT.

DAYS 3-7...

UPPER LOW WILL STILL BE SPINNING OFF TO OUR WEST AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD.  THE GFS BRINGS THE FRONT THROUGH MOST OF THE CWA BEFORE
MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT, WHILE THE ECMWF IS A BIT SLOWER.  AT ANY
RATE, IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE GOOD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR
AND ALONG THAT BOUNDARY, SO WENT WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY
POPS ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN CWA.  SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD IN
BEHIND THE FRONT AND WE SHOULD SEE SOME SUBSIDENCE.  HOWEVER, WITH
THE UPPER LOW STILL OFF TO THE WEST WILL CONTINUE WITH THE 20 POPS
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.  THE 06Z GFS AND ECMWF WERE ALSO A
BIT SLOWER ON FINALLY EJECTING THE TROUGH THROUGH THE PLAINS,
HOLDING OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY.  GIVEN THAT SATELLITE WINDS SHOWED A
GOOD 120 TO 140KT JET ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH, MORE DIGGING
AND A SLIGHTLY SLOWER SOLUTION SEEM REASONABLE.  ENSEMBLES ARE ALSO
A BIT SLOWER AND BRING THE SYSTEM OUT WEDNESDAY.  EXTENDED SOME LOW
POPS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, WITH THE HIGHER VALUES IN
THE EAST.

CONDITIONS SHOULD START TO QUIET DOWN AS THE TROUGH FINALLY MOVES
EAST AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN BY LATE WEEK.  THE 06Z GFS WAS
TRYING TO BRING ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
AND TOWARDS THE PLAINS BY FRIDAY.  HOWEVER, THE 12Z RUN, ENSEMBLES
AND THE ECMWF WERE NOT AS STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM, SO WILL LEAVE
FRIDAY DRY FOR NOW.  THE WARM AND DRY WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE INTO
THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE ENSEMBLE MEANS ALL HAVE ANOTHER
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WEST AND RETURNING THE PLAINS TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST IN AT THE KHYS TERMINAL FOR ANOTHER
HOUR OR SO BEFORE THE STRATUS SCATTERS OUT.  THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL START THIS EVENING ALONG A DRYLINE THAT IS EXPECTED
TO SET UP NEAR KDDC, AS WELL AS NEAR A FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN CWA.  ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY SCATTERED, SO
WILL KEEP VATS IN THE TAFS AND UPDATE AS NEEDED.  STRATUS SHOULD
BEGIN TO REDEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY MORNING,
WITH CONDITIONS RETURNING TO MVFR AT THE TAF SITES. SOME IFR IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION, PARTICULARLY AT KHYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  66  83  61  72 /  20  40  60  60
GCK  64  82  57  68 /  10  30  50  50
EHA  56  79  50  65 /   0  10  40  40
LBL  64  84  58  69 /   0  30  50  50
HYS  66  81  63  73 /  30  40  60  60
P28  68  83  65  77 /  30  30  60  60

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

FN02/26

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
401 PM CDT FRI MAY 4 2007

KSZ065-066-079>081-089-090-052115-
PAWNEE-STAFFORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-PRATT-COMANCHE-BARBER-
401 PM CDT FRI MAY 4 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 5 PM AND INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THESE STORMS WILL ALSO BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED AFTER 5 PM.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC

KSZ043>045-063-064-076>078-086>088-052115-
SCOTT-LANE-NESS-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-SEWARD-MEADE-
CLARK-
401 PM CDT FRI MAY 4 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
KANSAS AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS
EVENING. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO COULD ALSO BE
POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.
STORMS WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON. VERY LARGE HAIL AND
TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY AFTER 6 PM.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC

KSZ061-062-074-075-084-085-052115-
HAMILTON-KEARNY-STANTON-GRANT-MORTON-STEVENS-
401 PM CDT FRI MAY 4 2007 /301 PM MDT FRI MAY 4 2007/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC

KSZ030-031-046-052115-
TREGO-ELLIS-RUSH-
401 PM CDT FRI MAY 4 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS
AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AFTER 7 PM. THESE STORMS COULD
BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.
STORMS WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON. VERY LARGE HAIL AND
TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED AFTER 7 PM.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC

GERARD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
742 PM CDT FRI MAY 04 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0742 PM     HAIL             S ASHLAND               37.19N 99.77W
05/04/2007  E1.75 INCH       CLARK              KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

BURGERT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
744 PM CDT FRI MAY 04 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0743 PM     HAIL             ASHLAND                 37.19N 99.77W
05/04/2007  E1.75 INCH       CLARK              KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HAIL WAS ON SOUTH SIDE ASHLAND

&&

MB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
749 PM CDT FRI MAY 04 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0745 PM     HAIL             13 SE ASHLAND           37.05N 99.60W
05/04/2007  E1.00 INCH       CLARK              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

GERARD