Severe Thunderstorm Warning 51, NWS Dodge City, KS

000 
WWUS53 KDDC 050239
SVSDDC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
939 PM CDT FRI MAY 4 2007

KSC047-057-083-050315-
/O.CON.KDDC.SV.W.0051.000000T0000Z-070505T0315Z/
HODGEMAN KS-EDWARDS KS-FORD KS-
939 PM CDT FRI MAY 4 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1015 PM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN FORD...WESTERN EDWARDS AND SOUTHEASTERN HODGEMAN
COUNTIES...

AT 937 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS REPORTED CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LARGE DAMAGING HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR SPEARVILLE...MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  SPEARVILLE...
  BELLEFONT...
  OFFERLE...
  KINSLEY...
  RURAL RESIDENCES OF NORTHEASTERN FORD...SOUTHEASTERN HODGEMAN AND
  WESTERN EDWARDS COUNTIES.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CDT SATURDAY MORNING
FOR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS.

LAT...LON 3772 10004 3768 9957 3773 9956 3804 9931
      3811 9981

$$

RITTERLING

000 
WWUS53 KDDC 050257
SVSDDC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
956 PM CDT FRI MAY 4 2007

KSC057-050306-
/O.CAN.KDDC.SV.W.0051.000000T0000Z-070505T0315Z/
FORD KS-
956 PM CDT FRI MAY 4 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR FORD COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM HAS MOVED OUT OF THE COUNTY.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CDT SATURDAY MORNING
FOR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS.

LAT...LON 3790 9956 3791 9957 3791 9992 3811 9979
      3809 9961 3806 9956 3805 9936 3804 9935
      3797 9936 3774 9955

$$

KSC047-083-050315-
/O.CON.KDDC.SV.W.0051.000000T0000Z-070505T0315Z/
HODGEMAN KS-EDWARDS KS-
956 PM CDT FRI MAY 4 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1015 PM CDT
FOR WESTERN EDWARDS AND SOUTHEASTERN HODGEMAN COUNTIES...

AT 954 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF OFFERLE...MOVING 
NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.  ANOTHER SEVERE CELL WAS LOCATED 8 MILES 
SOUTHEAST OF JETMORE.  

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CDT SATURDAY MORNING
FOR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS.

LAT...LON 3790 9956 3791 9957 3791 9992 3811 9979
      3809 9961 3806 9956 3805 9936 3804 9935
      3797 9936 3774 9955

$$

RITTERLING

000 
WWUS53 KDDC 050317
SVSDDC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1016 PM CDT FRI MAY 4 2007

KSC047-083-050326-
/O.EXP.KDDC.SV.W.0051.000000T0000Z-070505T0315Z/
HODGEMAN KS-EDWARDS KS-
1016 PM CDT FRI MAY 4 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN EDWARDS AND
SOUTHEASTERN HODGEMAN COUNTIES EXPIRES AT 1015 PM CDT...

THE STORM HAS EXITED THE WARNED AREA.  HOWEVER...A SEVERE STORM 
CONTINUES FOR NORTHEASTERN HODGEMAN COUNTY UNTIL 11 PM CDT.  A 
TORNADO WARNING CONTINUES FOR SOUTHERN EDWARDS COUNTY UNTIL 1030 PM 
CDT.  

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CDT SATURDAY MORNING
FOR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS.

LAT...LON 3790 9956 3791 9957 3791 9992 3811 9979
      3809 9961 3806 9956 3805 9936 3804 9935
      3797 9936 3774 9955

$$

RITTERLING

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
327 PM CDT FRI MAY 4 2007

.DISCUSSION...

DAYS 1-2...

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE AREAL COVERAGE AND TIMING OF
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES AGAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

THE UA ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED A TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
WESTERN STATES WHICH WAS NO SURPRISE GIVEN THE 160 KNOT SPEED MAX
OVER KSFO AND EVEN STRONGER WINDS OFF THE COAST OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE ANOTHER WEAKER WAVE WAS MOVING THROUGH
WESTERN KANSAS. THIS SECOND WAVE HAD KICKED OFF SOME ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NEBRASKA. AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING NORTH ACROSS WEST CENTRAL INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS, AND
ALSO TO THE WEST ALONG THE COLO/NEW MEX BORDER. A LOOSELY DEFINED
DRYLINE EXTENDED FROM SOUTHWEST KANSAS INTO THE EAST TEXAS
PANHANDLE.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS IS INCREASING AS THE
300 MB JET BEGINS TO NOSE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. DEWPOINTS AT KDDC
HAVE STARTED TO DROP WITH WINDS COMING AROUND TO SSW. NOT MUCH
CONVECTION BUBBLING AROUND THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON YET PER VIS SAT
LOOPS BUT THINK THAT THE BEST LOCATION FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR
CWA WILL BE AROUND OR JUST EAST OF HIGHWAY 283, ALONG THE DRYLINE.
DO NOT THINK COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BE ALL THAT GREAT SO WILL
KEEP POPS IN THE VERY LOW CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY THIS
EVENING. ALONG THE FRONT OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA, THE
AIRMASS HAS STAYED FAIRLY STABLE. THINK THAT ANY STORMS THAT MAY
IMPACT THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WILL BE DEVELOPING OFF THE
FRONT RANGE AND MOVING TOWARD WESTERN KANSAS THIS EVENING. MOST OF
THESE STORMS MAY STAY TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE AREA AS
THAT IS WHERE THE BEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION
OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET WILL BE. THE DRYLINE WILL LIKELY BE
RETREATING WESTWARD THIS EVENING. THERE IS A SLIM CHANCE THAT A
STORM COULD DEVELOP ALONG IT AS IT RETREATS, AT LEAST FOR A FEW
HOURS THIS EVENING.

ON SATURDAY, SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE THAT THE DRYLINE WILL BE
IN THE VICINITY OF WAKEENEY TO JETMORE AND MINNEOLA BY AFTERNOON.
MODELS INDICATE EVEN STRONGER MID AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS ROTATING
OUT OF THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. THE DRYLINE IS FORECAST TO BE
LOCATED FROM ROUGHLY JUST WEST OF WAKEENEY TO JETMORE AND DODGE
CITY BY AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT FORECAST POPS FOR THAT TIME PERIOD
HAVE A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON THIS WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE
EASTERN CWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SO ONLY MADE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS THERE. ON SUNDAY, THE MODELS SHOW A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHING OUT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS IN RESPONSE TO A MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT LIFTS OUT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. HIGHEST
POPS ON SUNDAY WILL AGAIN BE OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
CWA ALONG AND EAST OF THE FRONT.

DAYS 3-7...

UPPER LOW WILL STILL BE SPINNING OFF TO OUR WEST AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD.  THE GFS BRINGS THE FRONT THROUGH MOST OF THE CWA BEFORE
MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT, WHILE THE ECMWF IS A BIT SLOWER.  AT ANY
RATE, IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE GOOD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR
AND ALONG THAT BOUNDARY, SO WENT WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY
POPS ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN CWA.  SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD IN
BEHIND THE FRONT AND WE SHOULD SEE SOME SUBSIDENCE.  HOWEVER, WITH
THE UPPER LOW STILL OFF TO THE WEST WILL CONTINUE WITH THE 20 POPS
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.  THE 06Z GFS AND ECMWF WERE ALSO A
BIT SLOWER ON FINALLY EJECTING THE TROUGH THROUGH THE PLAINS,
HOLDING OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY.  GIVEN THAT SATELLITE WINDS SHOWED A
GOOD 120 TO 140KT JET ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH, MORE DIGGING
AND A SLIGHTLY SLOWER SOLUTION SEEM REASONABLE.  ENSEMBLES ARE ALSO
A BIT SLOWER AND BRING THE SYSTEM OUT WEDNESDAY.  EXTENDED SOME LOW
POPS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, WITH THE HIGHER VALUES IN
THE EAST.

CONDITIONS SHOULD START TO QUIET DOWN AS THE TROUGH FINALLY MOVES
EAST AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN BY LATE WEEK.  THE 06Z GFS WAS
TRYING TO BRING ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
AND TOWARDS THE PLAINS BY FRIDAY.  HOWEVER, THE 12Z RUN, ENSEMBLES
AND THE ECMWF WERE NOT AS STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM, SO WILL LEAVE
FRIDAY DRY FOR NOW.  THE WARM AND DRY WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE INTO
THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE ENSEMBLE MEANS ALL HAVE ANOTHER
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WEST AND RETURNING THE PLAINS TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST IN AT THE KHYS TERMINAL FOR ANOTHER
HOUR OR SO BEFORE THE STRATUS SCATTERS OUT.  THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL START THIS EVENING ALONG A DRYLINE THAT IS EXPECTED
TO SET UP NEAR KDDC, AS WELL AS NEAR A FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN CWA.  ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY SCATTERED, SO
WILL KEEP VATS IN THE TAFS AND UPDATE AS NEEDED.  STRATUS SHOULD
BEGIN TO REDEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY MORNING,
WITH CONDITIONS RETURNING TO MVFR AT THE TAF SITES. SOME IFR IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION, PARTICULARLY AT KHYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  66  83  61  72 /  20  40  60  60
GCK  64  82  57  68 /  10  30  50  50
EHA  56  79  50  65 /   0  10  40  40
LBL  64  84  58  69 /   0  30  50  50
HYS  66  81  63  73 /  30  40  60  60
P28  68  83  65  77 /  30  30  60  60

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

FN02/26

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
401 PM CDT FRI MAY 4 2007

KSZ065-066-079>081-089-090-052115-
PAWNEE-STAFFORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-PRATT-COMANCHE-BARBER-
401 PM CDT FRI MAY 4 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 5 PM AND INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THESE STORMS WILL ALSO BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED AFTER 5 PM.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC

KSZ043>045-063-064-076>078-086>088-052115-
SCOTT-LANE-NESS-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-SEWARD-MEADE-
CLARK-
401 PM CDT FRI MAY 4 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
KANSAS AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS
EVENING. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO COULD ALSO BE
POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.
STORMS WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON. VERY LARGE HAIL AND
TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY AFTER 6 PM.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC

KSZ061-062-074-075-084-085-052115-
HAMILTON-KEARNY-STANTON-GRANT-MORTON-STEVENS-
401 PM CDT FRI MAY 4 2007 /301 PM MDT FRI MAY 4 2007/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC

KSZ030-031-046-052115-
TREGO-ELLIS-RUSH-
401 PM CDT FRI MAY 4 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS
AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AFTER 7 PM. THESE STORMS COULD
BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.
STORMS WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON. VERY LARGE HAIL AND
TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED AFTER 7 PM.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC

GERARD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
831 PM CDT FRI MAY 04 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0810 PM     HAIL             4 SSW MULLINVILLE       37.53N 99.50W
05/04/2007  E1.75 INCH       KIOWA              KS   PUBLIC

0824 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     3 S SITKA               37.13N 99.65W
05/04/2007                   CLARK              KS   STORM CHASER

            WELL DEFINED FUNNEL.

&&

GERARD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
833 PM CDT FRI MAY 04 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0825 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     3 NE SITKA              37.20N 99.61W
05/04/2007                   CLARK              KS   STORM CHASER

            BRIEF FUNNELS AND A LARGE WALL CLOUD REPORTED

&&

MB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
856 PM CDT FRI MAY 04 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 PM     HAIL             PROTECTION              37.20N 99.48W
05/04/2007  E1.00 INCH       COMANCHE           KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

0835 PM     TORNADO          5 E SITKA               37.17N 99.56W
05/04/2007                   CLARK              KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

0840 PM     TORNADO          2 N SITKA               37.20N 99.65W
05/04/2007                   CLARK              KS   STORM CHASER

            KAKE TV STORM CHASER. REPORT RELAYED BY WFO ICT.

0845 PM     TORNADO          6 N SITKA               37.26N 99.65W
05/04/2007                   CLARK              KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

GERARD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
903 PM CDT FRI MAY 04 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 PM     TORNADO          7 N PROTECTION          37.30N 99.48W
05/04/2007                   COMANCHE           KS   STORM CHASER

            ROPE TORNADO. FROM KWCH STORM CHASER.

&&

GERARD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
906 PM CDT FRI MAY 04 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0859 PM     TORNADO          2 N PROTECTION          37.23N 99.48W
05/04/2007                   COMANCHE           KS   STORM CHASER

            REPORT FROM KWCH SPOTTER AT LOCATION 2 TO 3 NORTH OF
            PROTECTION

0859 PM     TORNADO          6 N PROTECTION          37.29N 99.48W
05/04/2007                   COMANCHE           KS   STORM CHASER

            REPORT FROM KAKE SPOTTER RELAYED BY ICT

&&

MB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
912 PM CDT FRI MAY 04 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0908 PM     TORNADO          9 NW COLDWATER          37.35N 99.45W
05/04/2007                   COMANCHE           KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TORNADO AND DEBRE CLOUD ON GROUND

&&

MB