River Flood Warning 30, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
421 AM CDT SAT JUL 7 2007

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...THE GFS/NAM CONTINUE TO PROG
THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY WITH THE NERN CWFA
UNDER THE MOST FAVORABLE SECTOR FOR SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT. EXPECT SCT
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP TDA/SUN OVR THE REGION WITH THE GREATEST
LIKELIHOOD OVR THE NERN CWFA DRG THE AFTN...WITH ACTIVITY SHIFTING
WWD DRG THE EVENING HOURS. EARLY MORNING CONVECTION NOTWITHSTANDING
OVR THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ACTIVITY LATER TNGT AS
CIN INCREASES. EXPECT ANY FLOODING TO REMAIN ISOLD AND THUS WL NOT
ISSUE AN FFA.

&&

.AVIATION...IFR/MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES EXPECTED DRG THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS AND NEAR CONVECTION. OTHERWISE...VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY ISOLD CONVECTION EXPECTED DRG THE PERIOD.
DIURNAL RISE (YET LIMITED OWING TO WEAK THERMAL CONTRAST) IN
MOMENTUM NEAR THE COAST DRG THE AFTN HOURS YET BELOW SCA CRITERION.
DO NOT EXPECT SEAS TO REACH SCA CRITERION...CONSISTENT WITH THE
WAVEWATCH SOLN.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...WEAK SHEAR ZONE OR COL
WILL LINGER OVER THE LONE STAR STATE AS REGION WILL BE BETWEEN AREAS
OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST
U.S. MODELS INDICATE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DECREASING BY MIDWEEK
TO BELOW 1.75 INCHES TO EVEN LOWER VALUES BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
WITH THIS SAID...WILL CONTINUE WITH DRIER FCST TREND AS THE WE
PROGRESS FURTHER INTO NEXT WEEK. ANTICIPATE MAINLY ISOLD SHOWERS
WITH MAIN LIFTING FOCUS BEING THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK...MAX TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN A COUPLE DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL GIVEN THE SATURATED SOILS. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY COME BACK TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS WITH SOIL CONDITIONS
DRYING OUT. AS SUSPECTED EARLIER...GFS IS STARTING TO SHOW SOME HINT
OF UPPER LOW COMING INTO FRUITION OVER THE STATE BY THE END OF NEXT
WEEK WITH SE CONUS HIGH PRESSURE AREA BREAKING DOWN OR FLATTENING AS
UPPER HIGH STRENGTHENS OVER THE WESTERN U.S WHILE EASTERN CONUS TROF
AMPLIFIES WITH BASE OF UPPER TROF ENCROACHING EAST TEXAS. WILL HAVE
TO WAIT AND SEE IF THIS GFS SOLUTION COMES TO BEAR FOR THE FOLLOWING
WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    89  76  90  78  91  /  30  20  20  10  20
VICTORIA          89  75  90  76  91  /  40  20  30  10  30
LAREDO            94  78  98  79 100  /  40  30  10  10  10
ALICE             91  75  93  77  95  /  30  20  20  10  20
ROCKPORT          87  78  89  80  90  /  30  20  20  10  20
COTULLA           92  75  95  75  96  /  50  30  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        90  77  92  78  93  /  30  20  20  10  20
NAVY CORPUS       88  78  88  80  90  /  20  20  20  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

WC/87...SHORT TERM
SC/70...LONG TERM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
612 AM CDT FRI JUL 6 2007

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-TXZ229>234-239>247-071100-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT OCONNOR-
COASTAL WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 TO 60 NM-
LA SALLE-MCMULLEN-LIVE OAK-BEE-GOLIAD-VICTORIA-WEBB-DUVAL-
JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-NUECES-SAN PATRICIO-ARANSAS-REFUGIO-CALHOUN-
612 AM CDT FRI JUL 6 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS AND THE MIDDLE
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS
TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ACROSS ALREADY SATURATED SOILS WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO ADDITIONAL FLOODING PROBLEMS TODAY OVER THE VICTORIA
CROSSROADS REGION. LOCALIZED RAIN AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS REGION TODAY. A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS
REGION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS
SATURDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

87/70