Flash Flood Warning 103, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1007 AM CDT SAT JUL 7 2007

.UPDATE...LIGHT SHOWERS PERSIST IN AREA OF WEAK CONVERGENCE AND
HIGH MOISTURE OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CWFA. EXPECT A
SCENARIO SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE DEVELOPING
MAINLY INLAND IN AFTERNOON INSTABILITY. NO CHANGES PLANNED TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 421 AM CDT SAT JUL 7 2007/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...THE GFS/NAM CONTINUE TO PROG
THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY WITH THE NERN CWFA
UNDER THE MOST FAVORABLE SECTOR FOR SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT. EXPECT SCT
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP TDA/SUN OVR THE REGION WITH THE GREATEST
LIKELIHOOD OVR THE NERN CWFA DRG THE AFTN...WITH ACTIVITY SHIFTING
WWD DRG THE EVENING HOURS. EARLY MORNING CONVECTION NOTWITHSTANDING
OVR THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ACTIVITY LATER TNGT AS
CIN INCREASES. EXPECT ANY FLOODING TO REMAIN ISOLD AND THUS WL NOT
ISSUE AN FFA.

AVIATION...IFR/MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES EXPECTED DRG THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS AND NEAR CONVECTION. OTHERWISE...VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

MARINE...GENERALLY ISOLD CONVECTION EXPECTED DRG THE PERIOD.
DIURNAL RISE (YET LIMITED OWING TO WEAK THERMAL CONTRAST) IN
MOMENTUM NEAR THE COAST DRG THE AFTN HOURS YET BELOW SCA CRITERION.
DO NOT EXPECT SEAS TO REACH SCA CRITERION...CONSISTENT WITH THE
WAVEWATCH SOLN.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...WEAK SHEAR ZONE OR COL
WILL LINGER OVER THE LONE STAR STATE AS REGION WILL BE BETWEEN AREAS
OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST
U.S. MODELS INDICATE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DECREASING BY MIDWEEK
TO BELOW 1.75 INCHES TO EVEN LOWER VALUES BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
WITH THIS SAID...WILL CONTINUE WITH DRIER FCST TREND AS THE WE
PROGRESS FURTHER INTO NEXT WEEK. ANTICIPATE MAINLY ISOLD SHOWERS
WITH MAIN LIFTING FOCUS BEING THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK...MAX TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN A COUPLE DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL GIVEN THE SATURATED SOILS. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY COME BACK TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS WITH SOIL CONDITIONS
DRYING OUT. AS SUSPECTED EARLIER...GFS IS STARTING TO SHOW SOME HINT
OF UPPER LOW COMING INTO FRUITION OVER THE STATE BY THE END OF NEXT
WEEK WITH SE CONUS HIGH PRESSURE AREA BREAKING DOWN OR FLATTENING AS
UPPER HIGH STRENGTHENS OVER THE WESTERN U.S WHILE EASTERN CONUS TROF
AMPLIFIES WITH BASE OF UPPER TROF ENCROACHING EAST TEXAS. WILL HAVE
TO WAIT AND SEE IF THIS GFS SOLUTION COMES TO BEAR FOR THE FOLLOWING
WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    89  76  90  78  91  /  30  20  20  10  20
VICTORIA          89  75  90  76  91  /  40  20  30  10  30
LAREDO            94  78  98  79 100  /  40  30  10  10  10
ALICE             91  75  93  77  95  /  30  20  20  10  20
ROCKPORT          87  78  89  80  90  /  30  20  20  10  20
COTULLA           92  75  95  75  96  /  50  30  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        90  77  92  78  93  /  30  20  20  10  20
NAVY CORPUS       88  78  88  80  90  /  20  20  20  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

JV/71...SHORT TERM
JR/19...LONG TERM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
504 AM CDT SAT JUL 7 2007

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-TXZ229>234-239>247-081015-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT OCONNOR-
COASTAL WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 TO 60 NM-
LA SALLE-MCMULLEN-LIVE OAK-BEE-GOLIAD-VICTORIA-WEBB-DUVAL-
JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-NUECES-SAN PATRICIO-ARANSAS-REFUGIO-CALHOUN-
504 AM CDT SAT JUL 7 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS AND THE MIDDLE
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY OVER THE
COASTAL BEND...VICTORIA CROSSROADS...AND THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ANTICIPATED THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PRIMARILY BE ASSOCIATED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND THE SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

87/70

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
739 AM CDT SAT JUL 07 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 AM     FLASH FLOOD      COTULLA                 28.44N 99.24W
07/07/2007                   LA SALLE           TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            INTERSTATE 35 BETWEEN MILE MARKER 69 AND 74 CLOSED

&&

87