Flash Flood Warning 100, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
855 PM CDT FRI JUL 6 2007

.UPDATE...GIVEN GENERALLY DIURNAL NATURE TO CONVECTION
TODAY...HAVE DECIDED TO DROP FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. PUBLIC FORECAST HAS ALREADY BEEN UPDATED
TO REMOVE WATCH HEADLINE AND LOWER POPS FOR TONIGHT. HAVE GONE
WITH MINIMAL POPS FOR REST OF TONIGHT (ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT).
CONVECTION OVER MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO STAY ANCHORED TO THE
MOUNTAIN REGION. HOWEVER...DEBRIS CIRRUS/HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE CONVECTION
OVER MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT.
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...PATCHY LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE...BUT COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY NOT ENOUGH TO PUT IN FORECAST. NO OTHER MAJOR
CHANGES WERE MADE TO PUBLIC FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...TCOON NETWORK INDICATING THAT NEAR SHORE AND BY WATER
WINDS ARE SLOWLY DECREASING. THUS...STILL EXPECT CURRENT MARGINAL
SCEC WIND SPEEDS (15-20 KTS) TO FALL BELOW HIGHLIGHT CRITERIA
AFTER MIDNIGHT. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED WITH
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...SINCE MOISTURE AXIS IS PROGGED TO MOVE MORE TWD THE
NORTH EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE LESS SCATTERED ON SATURDAY EXCEPT TO
NORTH. ERGO...WILL MENTION TEMPO/PROB30 TSRA VCT AFT 17Z...BUT JUST
PROB30 KALI 21Z...AND VCTS KLRD 22Z...WITH NO MENTION OF PCPN AT
KCRP. EXPECT SOME MVFR CIGS/VSBYS TWD SR MIXING OUT AOA 16Z. NO
OTHER ISSUES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    76  89  76  91  78  /  20  30  10  20  10
VICTORIA          74  89  75  90  76  /  30  30  20  30  10
LAREDO            76  94  79  99  79  /  20  30  20  10  10
ALICE             75  91  75  93  77  /  20  30  10  20  10
ROCKPORT          78  87  78  89  80  /  20  30  10  20  10
COTULLA           75  92  75  96  75  /  30  30  30  10  10
KINGSVILLE        76  90  77  92  78  /  20  30  10  20  10
NAVY CORPUS       79  88  79  89  80  /  20  20  10  20  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

RM/33...SHORT TERM
GW/86...LONG TERM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
612 AM CDT FRI JUL 6 2007

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-TXZ229>234-239>247-071100-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT OCONNOR-
COASTAL WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 TO 60 NM-
LA SALLE-MCMULLEN-LIVE OAK-BEE-GOLIAD-VICTORIA-WEBB-DUVAL-
JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-NUECES-SAN PATRICIO-ARANSAS-REFUGIO-CALHOUN-
612 AM CDT FRI JUL 6 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS AND THE MIDDLE
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS
TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ACROSS ALREADY SATURATED SOILS WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO ADDITIONAL FLOODING PROBLEMS TODAY OVER THE VICTORIA
CROSSROADS REGION. LOCALIZED RAIN AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS REGION TODAY. A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS
REGION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS
SATURDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

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