Marine Weather Statement 14, NWS Cleveland, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
343 PM EDT THU JUL 19 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING...BRINGING ONE
LAST ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION FOR THIS WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY AND
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
EARLY AFTERNOON ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO DEPICT A COLD FRONT EXTENDING
FROM LAKE ONTARIO TO LOWER MICHIGAN...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BEST INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON
WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN OHIO/KENTUCKY/INDIANA...CONSEQUENTLY THIS
IS THE AREA WHERE THE STRONGEST STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED. A WEAK LINE
OF STORMS HAD FORMED ALONG THE COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH BUT LESS
INSTABILITY IN THIS AREA HAS KEPT THESE STORMS BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.
WOULD EXPECT THESE STORMS TO MAINTAIN THEIR INTENSITY AND MOVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING...WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WORKING IN AFTER MIDNIGHT BEHIND
THE FRONT.  WHILE THERE IS A SUFFICIENT AMOUNT OF SHEAR AND AN
OBVIOUS TRIGGER IN THE COLD FRONT...AM EXPECTING THE MAJORITY OF THE
SEVERE WEATHER TO BE TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND WILL NOT
USE SEVERE MENTION IN THE TEXT/GRIDS. A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE WAS
LOCATED BEHIND THE FRONT AND WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PRECIP ACROSS
NORTHERN MICHIGAN. CANT ENTIRELY RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF THESE
SHOWERS MAKING IT INTO THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT FLOW
WOULD LIKELY DIRECT THE MAJORITY OF THESE SHOWERS/STORMS INTO NW
PA/SW NY AND WILL ONLY CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE NE AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DRIFT OUT
OF CANADA AND INTO NEW YORK DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. CYCLONIC FLOW
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A CONTINUED CHANCE
OF SHOWERS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS TOMORROW. PREVIOUS THINKING AND
MODEL RUNS CONFINED PRECIP TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...SEE NO REASON TO GO AGAINST THIS GIVEN NEW GUIDANCE AND WILL
MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE EAST TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
TAKE CONTROL BY TOMORROW EVENING AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...AS IT
CONTINUES TO APPEAR THAT THE AREA AND THE OVERWHELMING MAJORITY OF
THE CONUS WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD UPPER RIDGE.
CLOSED LOW WILL SLOWLY MEANDER EASTWARD DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE TAKES HOLD OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH TUESDAY WHILE THE
SURFACE HIGH SLOWLY MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
FLOW WILL BECOME ZONAL WITH A FEW SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED BY TUESDAY
EVENING...GFS SHOWING A WEAKENING COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTH WITH SOME
LIGHT PRECIP MOVING INTO SW NY BY LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY. GIVEN
STRONG SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGING...AM NOT INCLINED TO BITE OFF ON
POPS AT THIS POINT AND WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD.  AS THE HIGH SLIDES OFF THE EAST COAST...TEMPS AND
DEWPOINTS WILL GRADUALLY BE ON THE INCREASE BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
YET HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE MENTION OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

AS FOR TEMPS...COOL THIS WEEKEND BEHIND THE FRONT...GRADUALLY
WARMING BACK UP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S BY THE MIDDLE/END OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING. VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL ALSO PUSH
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED IN ADVANCE OF BOTH THE FRONT AND SHORT WAVE IN
MICHIGAN. MVF CONDITIONS EXIST IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AND I
EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH AFT 00Z AND GRADUAL CLEARING WILL OCCUR
OVER THE WEST. THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL LINGER OVER THE
EASTERN TAF LOCATIONS SO I EXPECT CLOUDS AND PCPN TO LINGER FOR
SITES EAST OF CLE THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. I AM CONCERNED ABOUT
THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG PARTICULARLY FOR MFD. MODELS INDICATE NW FLOW
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO MIX THE LOW LEVELS BUT OBSERVATION SITES
JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT LAST NIGHT EXPERIENCE IFR FOG. I
WILL TAKE A CONSERVATIVE APPROACH AT THIS TIME.

BEYOND 00Z FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO OH/PA ON
FRIDAY WITH FAVORABLE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ERIE THIS EVENING.  THERE IS A
LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THIS
FRONT.  SO SOUTHWEST WINDS THAT HAVE BEEN PERSISTENTLY 10 TO 20
KNOTS ALL AFTERNOON WILL COME AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST.  ISSUED A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WITH 3 TO 5 FOOT WAVES EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
MUCH OF FRIDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE REMAINS FOR A WHILE IN NEW ENGLAND...SO
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHT FRIDAY...THEREFORE THE INCREASED
WINDS.  BY THE WEEKEND THE HIGH WILL BE SETTLED IN AND THE WINDS AND
WAVES WILL SETTLE.  THE HIGH WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE BY
TUESDAY WITH A SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURNING FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LEZ142>149.

&&

SYNOPSIS...LEINS
NEAR TERM...LEINS
SHORT TERM...LEINS
LONG TERM...LEINS
AVIATION...GARNET
MARINE...OUDEMAN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
545 AM EDT THU JUL 19 2007

OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-PAZ001>003-201100-
LUCAS-WOOD-OTTAWA-SANDUSKY-ERIE OH-LORAIN-CUYAHOGA-LAKE-GEAUGA-
ASHTABULA INLAND-HANCOCK-SENECA-HURON-MEDINA-SUMMIT-PORTAGE-TRUMBULL-
WYANDOT-CRAWFORD-RICHLAND-ASHLAND-WAYNE-STARK-MAHONING-MARION-MORROW-
HOLMES-KNOX-ASHTABULA LAKESHORE-NORTHERN ERIE-SOUTHERN ERIE-
CRAWFORD PA-
545 AM EDT THU JUL 19 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO...NORTHEAST OHIO...NORTHWEST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL ARE THE MAIN THREATS FROM ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM. ALL STORMS
WILL CONTAIN FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY.

LEZ142>149-162>169-201100-
MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH OHIO-RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OHIO-
THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OHIO-VERMILION TO AVON POINT OHIO-
AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OHIO-WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE LAKE OHIO-
GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OHIO-CONNEAUT OHIO TO RIPLEY NY-
MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH OHIO BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OHIO BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OHIO BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
VERMILION TO AVON POINT OHIO BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OHIO BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE OHIO BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-GENEVA-ON-
THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OHIO BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
CONNEAUT OHIO TO RIPLEY NY BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
545 AM EDT THU JUL 19 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR LAKE ERIE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. MARINERS CAN EXPECT
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM. A FEW
MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

MRD