Marine Weather Statement 13, NWS Cleveland, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1251 PM EDT THU JUL 19 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO LOWER
MICHIGAN...WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON TODAY. CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE THE GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WILL UPDATE TO CANCEL THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AND THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH. ALTHOUGH STORMS CONTINUE...THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BECOME SEVERE. IN ADDITION...THE HEAVIEST RAIN OVER THE SOUTH AND
WEST HAS ALREADY FALLEN AND ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOULD NOT CAUSE
NEW FLOODING.

HAVE ALSO LOWERED POPS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA ESPECIALLY THIS
MORNING. AM THINKING THAT IT WILL TAKE AWHILE FOR THE ATMOSPHERE
TO DESTABILIZE IN THE WAKE OF THE MCS. ANY NEW THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THE SHARP HEIGHT FALLS AND
FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL GO WITH SCT POPS IN THE NW
AND NORTH CENTRAL LAKESHORE....WITH LIKELY POPS SOUTH. THERE MAY
BE A LULL IN PCPN COMPLETELY FOR THE AREA THIS MORNING AFTER THE
REMAINS OF THE MCS MOVES EAST. WCN ALREADY OUT. ZFP AND FFA OUT BY
545 AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE FRONT MOVES THRU THE ENTIRE AREA BY 06Z TONIGHT. EXPECT
SHOWERS/STORMS TO SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISH OR END QUICKLY FROM WEST
TO EAST THIS EVENING. PROFILES FROM THE NAM SHOW THAT MOST OF THE
AREA WILL DRY OUT BY FRIDAY MORNING. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE
DEEPENING NEW ENGLAND SYSTEM WILL WRAP INTO THE AREA FRIDAY
MORNING. WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO +8C AND CONVERGENT FLOW INTO
NE OH/NW PA WILL GO WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...WILL
KEEP DRY WEATHER ON FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL FALL BACK INTO THE
50S/LOWER 60S TONIGHT AND ONLY RISE INTO THE 70S ON FRIDAY. WILL
GENERALLY FOLLOW GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND. UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DOES SWING ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WHICH MAY KICK OFF A SHOWER OF TWO OVER EASTERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA. SFC HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT TO THE EAST LATE IN THE
PERIOD ALLOWING A WARMUP BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING. VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL ALSO PUSH
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED IN ADVANCE OF BOTH THE FRONT AND SHORT WAVE IN
MICHIGAN. MVF CONDITIONS EXIST IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AND I
EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH AFT 00Z AND GRADUAL CLEARING WILL OCCUR
OVER THE WEST. THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL LINGER OVER THE
EASTERN TAF LOCATIONS SO I EXPECT CLOUDS AND PCPN TO LINGER FOR
SITES EAST OF CLE THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. I AM CONCERNED ABOUT
THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG PARTICULARLY FOR MFD. MODELS INDICATE NW FLOW
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO MIX THE LOW LEVELS BUT OBSERVATION SITES
JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT LAST NIGHT EXPERIENCE IFR FOG. I
WILL TAKE A CONSERVATIVE APPROACH AT THIS TIME.

BEYOND 00Z FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO OH/PA ON
FRIDAY WITH FAVORABLE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD FRONT SET TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LAKE TOWARD EVE. UNTIL
THEN...PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN LIKELY.
FLOW WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SW TODAY WITH SOME INCREASE IN
SPEEDS AFTER DAYBREAK. LOCALLY STRONGER WINDS POSSIBLE WITH THE
STORMS. FLOW WILL BECOME NW BEHIND FRONT WITH PRECIP THREAT
QUICKLY ENDING THIS EVENING.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MRD
NEAR TERM...MRD
SHORT TERM...MRD
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...GARNET
MARINE...KUBINA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
545 AM EDT THU JUL 19 2007

OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-PAZ001>003-201100-
LUCAS-WOOD-OTTAWA-SANDUSKY-ERIE OH-LORAIN-CUYAHOGA-LAKE-GEAUGA-
ASHTABULA INLAND-HANCOCK-SENECA-HURON-MEDINA-SUMMIT-PORTAGE-TRUMBULL-
WYANDOT-CRAWFORD-RICHLAND-ASHLAND-WAYNE-STARK-MAHONING-MARION-MORROW-
HOLMES-KNOX-ASHTABULA LAKESHORE-NORTHERN ERIE-SOUTHERN ERIE-
CRAWFORD PA-
545 AM EDT THU JUL 19 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO...NORTHEAST OHIO...NORTHWEST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL ARE THE MAIN THREATS FROM ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM. ALL STORMS
WILL CONTAIN FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY.

LEZ142>149-162>169-201100-
MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH OHIO-RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OHIO-
THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OHIO-VERMILION TO AVON POINT OHIO-
AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OHIO-WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE LAKE OHIO-
GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OHIO-CONNEAUT OHIO TO RIPLEY NY-
MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH OHIO BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OHIO BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OHIO BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
VERMILION TO AVON POINT OHIO BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OHIO BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE OHIO BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-GENEVA-ON-
THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OHIO BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
CONNEAUT OHIO TO RIPLEY NY BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
545 AM EDT THU JUL 19 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR LAKE ERIE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. MARINERS CAN EXPECT
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM. A FEW
MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

MRD