Severe Thunderstorm Warning 343, NWS Bismarck, ND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
300 AM CDT MON AUG 27 2007

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A GOOD TREND AND CONSISTENCY FROM RUN TO
RUN.  PER MODEL FORECAST NEXT SURFACE LOW IS DEVELOPING IN WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA AS A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE
ROCKIES MOVES EAST.  AT 230 AM CDT A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARCS FROM
NEAR BEACH TO DICKINSON TO GLEN ULLIN THEN SOUTH TOWARD SOUTH
DAKOTA.  THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
MORNING. MOVEMENT WAS EAST WHERE MOST UNSTABLE CAPE INCREASES. WILL
GO WITH SCATTERED TSTMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ND
THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH POTENTIALLY SEVERE TSTMS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 94 IN CENTRAL ND.  THE AIRMASS BECOMES STABLE TO THE
NORTH AND CHANCE OF PRECIP LESSENS TO A SLIGHT CHANCE.  IN ADDITION
LOOKS LIKE WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY STRONG THROUGH THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH CENTRAL. AS THE LOW MOVES EAST NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...THE BEST CAPE MOVES EAST ALSO WHICH
WILL SHIFT POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WX EAST.  WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CHANCE
OF PRECIP IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  BY THEN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL HAVE MOVED ACROSS THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BEGIN MOVING INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
LOOKS LIKE LITTLE CHANCE OF PRECIP FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS WILL BE A PROBLEM TODAY...DUE TO PCPN...CLOUDS AND WINDS.  IN
GENERAL SHOULD SEE WARMEST TEMPS IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL NEAR THE
BORDER WHERE WARM AIR LIKELY TO WRAP UP INTO THE STATE. COOLER
TEMPS...ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTHEAST.  TUESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST OF
THE NEXT THREE DAYS...WITH A WARMING TREND BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
00Z GFS SIMILAR TO EARLIER RUNS WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. SO...LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED. KEPT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
DRY AND RAISED TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES. NO CHANGES MADE FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION AS
TO HOW MUCH COOLING TO EXPECT. BUT...WILL WAIT FOR LATER RUNS TO GET
A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS.

&&

.AVIATION...
COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY.
SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING FROM SOUTH OF
BISMARCK OVER TOWARD JAMESTOWN. THIS SHOULD DIMINISH MAINLY TO
SHOWERS BY MID-MORNING. SOME PATCHY MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED TODAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

TSW/JF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
515 AM CDT MON AUG 27 2007

NDZ001>005-009>013-017-280930-
DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-
MCHENRY-PIERCE-MCKENZIE-
419 AM CDT MON AUG 27 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

NDZ018>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051-280930-
DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-WELLS-FOSTER-GOLDEN VALLEY-
BILLINGS-STARK-MORTON-BURLEIGH-KIDDER-STUTSMAN-SLOPE-HETTINGER-
GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-SIOUX-EMMONS-LOGAN-LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
419 AM CDT MON AUG 27 2007 /319 AM MDT MON AUG 27 2007/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING WILL
MOVE EAST NORTHEAST INTO MINNESOTA BY EVENING. WARM AIR AND
MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW WILL CAUSE STRONG INSTABILITY IN
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY...SOME SEVERE. THE THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL END THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
908 AM CDT MON AUG 27 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0805 PM     TORNADO          8 NNW NAPOLEON          46.61N 99.83W
08/26/2007                   LOGAN              ND   PUBLIC

            SEVERAL REPORTS OF A TORNADO RELAYED BY STATE RADIO.

0809 PM     HAIL             MEDINA                  46.90N 99.30W
08/26/2007  E0.88 INCH       STUTSMAN           ND   PUBLIC

0835 PM     TORNADO          5 NE NAPOLEON           46.55N 99.69W
08/26/2007                   LOGAN              ND   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TORNADO MOVING EAST.

0902 PM     HAIL             20 ENE NAPOLEON         46.61N 99.38W
08/26/2007  E1.75 INCH       LOGAN              ND   LAW ENFORCEMENT

0910 PM     HAIL             17 E NAPOLEON           46.50N 99.41W
08/26/2007  E4.25 INCH       LOGAN              ND   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

LLP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1235 PM CDT MON AUG 27 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1230 PM     HAIL             5 NW NAPOLEON           46.55N 99.84W
08/27/2007  E1.00 INCH       LOGAN              ND   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

SWICHE