Tornado Warning 44, NWS Bismarck, ND

000 
WWUS53 KBIS 270901
SVSBIS

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
401 AM CDT MON AUG 27 2007

NDC029-270915-
/O.CON.KBIS.TO.W.0044.000000T0000Z-070827T0915Z/
EMMONS ND-
401 AM CDT MON AUG 27 2007

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 AM CDT FOR CENTRAL
EMMONS COUNTY...

AT 400 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE A POSSIBLE TORNADO.  THE STRONGEST ROTATION WAS LOCATED 
SOUTH OF LINTON...OR ABOUT 46 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BISMARCK...MOVING 
EAST AT 30 MPH.

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 AM CDT
MONDAY MORNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

LAT...LON 4629 10057 4612 10050 4619 9992 4644 9995

$$
JF

000 
WWUS53 KBIS 270914
SVSBIS

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
413 AM CDT MON AUG 27 2007

NDC029-270923-
/O.EXP.KBIS.TO.W.0044.000000T0000Z-070827T0915Z/
EMMONS ND-
413 AM CDT MON AUG 27 2007

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR CENTRAL EMMONS COUNTY EXPIRES AT 415 AM
CDT...

THE TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM HAS WEAKENED SOME. HOWEVER...SOME ROTATION 
IS STILL EVIDENT IN THIS STORM AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING 
CONTINUES IN EFFECT.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 AM CDT
MONDAY MORNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

LAT...LON 4629 10057 4612 10050 4619 9992 4644 9995

$$
JF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
300 AM CDT MON AUG 27 2007

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A GOOD TREND AND CONSISTENCY FROM RUN TO
RUN.  PER MODEL FORECAST NEXT SURFACE LOW IS DEVELOPING IN WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA AS A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE
ROCKIES MOVES EAST.  AT 230 AM CDT A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARCS FROM
NEAR BEACH TO DICKINSON TO GLEN ULLIN THEN SOUTH TOWARD SOUTH
DAKOTA.  THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
MORNING. MOVEMENT WAS EAST WHERE MOST UNSTABLE CAPE INCREASES. WILL
GO WITH SCATTERED TSTMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ND
THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH POTENTIALLY SEVERE TSTMS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 94 IN CENTRAL ND.  THE AIRMASS BECOMES STABLE TO THE
NORTH AND CHANCE OF PRECIP LESSENS TO A SLIGHT CHANCE.  IN ADDITION
LOOKS LIKE WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY STRONG THROUGH THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH CENTRAL. AS THE LOW MOVES EAST NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...THE BEST CAPE MOVES EAST ALSO WHICH
WILL SHIFT POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WX EAST.  WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CHANCE
OF PRECIP IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  BY THEN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL HAVE MOVED ACROSS THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BEGIN MOVING INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
LOOKS LIKE LITTLE CHANCE OF PRECIP FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS WILL BE A PROBLEM TODAY...DUE TO PCPN...CLOUDS AND WINDS.  IN
GENERAL SHOULD SEE WARMEST TEMPS IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL NEAR THE
BORDER WHERE WARM AIR LIKELY TO WRAP UP INTO THE STATE. COOLER
TEMPS...ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTHEAST.  TUESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST OF
THE NEXT THREE DAYS...WITH A WARMING TREND BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
00Z GFS SIMILAR TO EARLIER RUNS WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. SO...LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED. KEPT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
DRY AND RAISED TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES. NO CHANGES MADE FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION AS
TO HOW MUCH COOLING TO EXPECT. BUT...WILL WAIT FOR LATER RUNS TO GET
A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS.

&&

.AVIATION...
COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY.
SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING FROM SOUTH OF
BISMARCK OVER TOWARD JAMESTOWN. THIS SHOULD DIMINISH MAINLY TO
SHOWERS BY MID-MORNING. SOME PATCHY MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED TODAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

TSW/JF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
415 AM CDT SUN AUG 26 2007

NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051-270915-
DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-
MCHENRY-PIERCE-MCKENZIE-DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-WELLS-
FOSTER-GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-MORTON-BURLEIGH-KIDDER-
STUTSMAN-SLOPE-HETTINGER-GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-SIOUX-EMMONS-LOGAN-
LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
415 AM CDT SUN AUG 26 2007 /315 AM MDT SUN AUG 26 2007/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
WEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
WHICH WILL BE ALONG A LINE FROM DEVILS LAKE TO HETTINGER BY EARLY
EVENING. THE STRONGEST CAPE WILL BE EAST OF THE FRONT...BUT WITH A
GOOD CAP. THE CAP WILL BE WEAKEST ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND
LIFTING OVER THE FRONT MAY BE ENOUGH TO START ISOLATED CONVECTION.
AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST TONIGHT...THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE IN THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES. IF THUNDERSTORMS DO
DEVELOP...THE STRONG CAPE INDICATES A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH WITH MUCH WEAKER CAPE...THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS MUCH LESS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
955 PM CDT SUN AUG 26 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0805 PM     TORNADO          8 NNW NAPOLEON          46.61N 99.83W
08/26/2007                   LOGAN              ND   PUBLIC

            SEVERAL REPORTS OF A TORNADO RELAYED BY STATE RADIO.

0809 PM     HAIL             MEDINA                  46.90N 99.30W
08/26/2007  E0.88 INCH       STUTSMAN           ND   PUBLIC

0835 PM     TORNADO          5 NE NAPOLEON           46.55N 99.69W
08/26/2007                   LOGAN              ND   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TORNADO MOVING EAST.

0902 PM     HAIL             20 ENE NAPOLEON         46.61N 99.38W
08/26/2007  E1.75 INCH       LOGAN              ND   LAW ENFORCEMENT

0910 PM     HAIL             17 E NAPOLEON           46.50N 99.41W
08/26/2007  E4.25 INCH       LOGAN              ND   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

KBIRK