Severe Thunderstorm Warning 339, NWS Bismarck, ND

000 
WWUS53 KBIS 270939
SVSBIS

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
438 AM CDT MON AUG 27 2007

NDC029-270948-
/O.CAN.KBIS.SV.W.0339.000000T0000Z-070827T1030Z/
EMMONS ND-
438 AM CDT MON AUG 27 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EMMONS COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 AM CDT
MONDAY MORNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

LAT...LON 4626 9988 4603 9988 4602 9904 4628 9904

$$

NDC051-271030-
/O.CON.KBIS.SV.W.0339.000000T0000Z-070827T1030Z/
MCINTOSH ND-
438 AM CDT MON AUG 27 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 AM CDT
FOR MCINTOSH COUNTY...

AT 437 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL.
THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WISHEK...OR ABOUT 67 
MILES SOUTHEAST OF BISMARCK...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  6 MILES SOUTH OF WISHEK AROUND 450 AM CDT...
  DANZIG AND GREEN LAKE AROUND 455 AM CDT...
  9 MILES NORTH OF ASHLEY AROUND 505 AM CDT...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE HAIL...AND DEADLY LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE
SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND
AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 AM CDT
MONDAY MORNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

LAT...LON 4626 9988 4603 9988 4602 9904 4628 9904

$$
JF

000 
WWUS53 KBIS 271005
SVSBIS

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
505 AM CDT MON AUG 27 2007

NDC051-271015-
/O.CAN.KBIS.SV.W.0339.000000T0000Z-070827T1030Z/
MCINTOSH ND-
505 AM CDT MON AUG 27 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR MCINTOSH COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM HAS WEAKENED AND NO LONGER POSES A
SIGNIFICANT THREAT.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 AM CDT
MONDAY MORNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

LAT...LON 4626 9988 4603 9988 4602 9904 4628 9904

$$
JF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
300 AM CDT MON AUG 27 2007

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A GOOD TREND AND CONSISTENCY FROM RUN TO
RUN.  PER MODEL FORECAST NEXT SURFACE LOW IS DEVELOPING IN WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA AS A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE
ROCKIES MOVES EAST.  AT 230 AM CDT A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARCS FROM
NEAR BEACH TO DICKINSON TO GLEN ULLIN THEN SOUTH TOWARD SOUTH
DAKOTA.  THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
MORNING. MOVEMENT WAS EAST WHERE MOST UNSTABLE CAPE INCREASES. WILL
GO WITH SCATTERED TSTMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ND
THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH POTENTIALLY SEVERE TSTMS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 94 IN CENTRAL ND.  THE AIRMASS BECOMES STABLE TO THE
NORTH AND CHANCE OF PRECIP LESSENS TO A SLIGHT CHANCE.  IN ADDITION
LOOKS LIKE WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY STRONG THROUGH THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH CENTRAL. AS THE LOW MOVES EAST NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...THE BEST CAPE MOVES EAST ALSO WHICH
WILL SHIFT POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WX EAST.  WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CHANCE
OF PRECIP IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  BY THEN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL HAVE MOVED ACROSS THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BEGIN MOVING INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
LOOKS LIKE LITTLE CHANCE OF PRECIP FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS WILL BE A PROBLEM TODAY...DUE TO PCPN...CLOUDS AND WINDS.  IN
GENERAL SHOULD SEE WARMEST TEMPS IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL NEAR THE
BORDER WHERE WARM AIR LIKELY TO WRAP UP INTO THE STATE. COOLER
TEMPS...ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTHEAST.  TUESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST OF
THE NEXT THREE DAYS...WITH A WARMING TREND BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
00Z GFS SIMILAR TO EARLIER RUNS WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. SO...LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED. KEPT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
DRY AND RAISED TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES. NO CHANGES MADE FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION AS
TO HOW MUCH COOLING TO EXPECT. BUT...WILL WAIT FOR LATER RUNS TO GET
A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS.

&&

.AVIATION...
COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY.
SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING FROM SOUTH OF
BISMARCK OVER TOWARD JAMESTOWN. THIS SHOULD DIMINISH MAINLY TO
SHOWERS BY MID-MORNING. SOME PATCHY MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED TODAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

TSW/JF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
419 AM CDT MON AUG 27 2007

NDZ001>005-009>013-017-280930-
DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-
MCHENRY-PIERCE-MCKENZIE-
419 AM CDT MON AUG 27 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

NDZ018>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051-280930-
DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-WELLS-FOSTER-GOLDEN VALLEY-
BILLINGS-STARK-MORTON-BURLEIGH-KIDDER-STUTSMAN-SLOPE-HETTINGER-
GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-SIOUX-EMMONS-LOGAN-LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
419 AM CDT MON AUG 27 2007 /319 AM MDT MON AUG 27 2007/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING WILL
MOVE EAST NORTHEAST INTO MINNESOTA BY EVENING. WARM AIR AND
MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW WILL CAUSE STRONG INSTABILITY IN
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY...SOME SEVERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.