Severe Thunderstorm Warning 67, NWS Amarillo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1137 PM CDT WED MAR 28 2007

.UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED POPS TO REFLECT CURRENT SITUATION AND REMOVE OLD WATCH
THAT WAS REPLACTED BY TOR WATCH 87. PACIFIC FRONT IS PUSHING EAST
ACROSS THE AREA RESULTING IN A TRANSITION TO SQUALL LINE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. POSSIBLE BOW ECHO IS DEVELOPING ALONG
INTERSTATE 40 WHICH WILL POSE HAZARD FOR RECOVERY EFFORTS IN AREAS
AFFECTED BY TORNADOES THIS EVENING.

JORDAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 156 PM CDT WED MAR 28 2007/

DISCUSSION...
DRYLINE IS BEGINNING TO MIX EAST AS SEEN ON KFDX RADAR IMAGERY AND
SURFACE OBS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE THIS AFTERNOON. 28/12Z
GUIDANCE DEPICTS THE DRYLINE SHARPENING OVER THE WESTERN/CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE TX/OK PANHANDLES LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
CONVECTIVE INITIATION BEGINNING AS EARLY AS 20/21Z. THERE WILL BE
ADEQUATE INSTABILITY/SHEAR TO SUPPORT DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AS
INSOLATION ALLOWS THE CAP TO BREAK. LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL BE AIDED BY
THE APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROF AND INCREASING DIFFLUENT PATTERN
ALOFT. EXPECT A WATCH TO BE ISSUED FOR PART/ALL OF THE AREA IN THE
NEXT ONE TO TWO HOURS.  SEE THE HWO AND/OR SPS FOR DETAILS ON THE
SEVERE THREAT THIS EVENING. EXPECT STORMS TO EVOLVE INTO LINEAR MCS
OVERNIGHT...ADDING THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE EQUATIONS AS
STORMS TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE EAST OF THE DRYLINE...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 2-4 INCHES
POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT.

WEAK PACIFIC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO OVERTAKE THE DRYLINE LATE IN THE
FIRST PERIOD WHICH WILL HELP SCOUR OUT THE MOISTURE FOR MOST OF THE
AREA. HOWEVER...UPPER-LOW WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER COLORADO THROUGH
FRIDAY. WITH LIFT ENHANCED BY WEAK IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THIS
LOW...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLES
TO WARRANT THE MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THU AND FRI. AT THIS
TIME...IT APPEARS THAT MOISTURE WILL BE TOO LIMITED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES. I DID LOWER MAX TEMPS A CATEGORY OR SO ON
FRIDAY BUT WE SHOULD STILL SEE MAX TEMPS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
CLIMO.

AS UPPER-LOW DEPARTS TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY...QUASI-ZONAL MID/UPPER-
LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN LEE-SIDE TROFFING. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN
TO SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WILL PUSH TEMPS BACK INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 70S BY SUNDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL QUICKLY BECOME MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY BY MONDAY AS NORTHERN STREAM TROF DIGS INTO THE INTER-
MOUNTAIN WEST. H85 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO CLIMB TO AROUND 20C ACROSS
THE AREA ON MONDAY...WHICH WILL SUPPORT TEMPS NEAR 80 DEGREES. GFS
DEPICTS A STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE PANHANDLES ON
TUESDAY. WILL UNDERCUT THE MEX GUIDANCE BEHIND THIS FRONT AS IT KEEPS
TEMPS ABOVE CLIMO DESPITE PROGGING H85 TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
WILL NOT ADD PRECIP MENTION FOR THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY BUT WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR THIS POSSIBILITY OVER THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS.

JOHNSON

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1147 PM CDT WED MAR 28 2007

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-291100-
ARMSTRONG-BEAVER-CARSON-CIMARRON-COLLINGSWORTH-DALLAM-DEAF SMITH-
DONLEY-GRAY-HANSFORD-HARTLEY-HEMPHILL-HUTCHINSON-LIPSCOMB-MOORE-
OCHILTREE-OLDHAM-POTTER-RANDALL-ROBERTS-SHERMAN-TEXAS-WHEELER-
1147 PM CDT WED MAR 28 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...

...A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE
AND THE EASTERN ONE-THIRD OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE UNTIL 6 AM...

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF A GUYMON
OKLAHOMA TO CLAUDE LINE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  ALTHOUGH THE
TORNADO THREAT HAS DIMINISHED...ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING
MORE FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SQUALL LINE
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY
OCCUR WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING
OR FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ACROSS ALL OF THE
OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES SHOULD REMAIN ALERT AND BE READY FOR
LIKELY ACTIVATION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

JORDAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
111 AM CDT THU MAR 29 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1112 PM     TSTM WND GST     CLAUDE                  35.11N 101.36W
03/28/2007  E66 MPH          ARMSTRONG          TX   MESONET

            RECORDED BY KVII SCHOOLNET SITE

&&

CK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
113 AM CDT THU MAR 29 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0837 PM     TSTM WND GST     PANHANDLE               35.35N 101.38W
03/28/2007  E87 MPH          CARSON             TX   MESONET

            REPORTED BY KVII SCHOOLNET SITE

&&

CK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
120 AM CDT THU MAR 29 2007

TXZ020-290700-
COLLINGSWORTH TX-
120 AM CDT THU MAR 29 2007

...LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN COLLINGSWORTH COUNTY...

AT 120 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF DOZIER TO 19
MILES SOUTHWEST OF QUAIL MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

PERSONS IN WELLINGTON...QUAIL...AND SAMNORWOOD SHOULD BE PREPARED
FOR ONE HALF INCH SIZE HAIL AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

JORDAN

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>