Severe Thunderstorm Warning 46, NWS Amarillo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
156 PM CDT WED MAR 28 2007

.DISCUSSION...
DRYLINE IS BEGINNING TO MIX EAST AS SEEN ON KFDX RADAR IMAGERY AND
SURFACE OBS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE THIS AFTERNOON. 28/12Z
GUIDANCE DEPICTS THE DRYLINE SHARPENING OVER THE WESTERN/CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE TX/OK PANHANDLES LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
CONVECTIVE INITIATION BEGINNING AS EARLY AS 20/21Z. THERE WILL BE
ADEQUATE INSTABILITY/SHEAR TO SUPPORT DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AS
INSOLATION ALLOWS THE CAP TO BREAK. LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL BE AIDED BY
THE APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROF AND INCREASING DIFFLUENT PATTERN
ALOFT. EXPECT A WATCH TO BE ISSUED FOR PART/ALL OF THE AREA IN THE
NEXT ONE TO TWO HOURS.  SEE THE HWO AND/OR SPS FOR DETAILS ON THE
SEVERE THREAT THIS EVENING. EXPECT STORMS TO EVOLVE INTO LINEAR MCS
OVERNIGHT...ADDING THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE EQUATIONS AS
STORMS TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE EAST OF THE DRYLINE...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 2-4 INCHES
POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT.

WEAK PACIFIC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO OVERTAKE THE DRYLINE LATE IN THE
FIRST PERIOD WHICH WILL HELP SCOUR OUT THE MOISTURE FOR MOST OF THE
AREA. HOWEVER...UPPER-LOW WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER COLORADO THROUGH
FRIDAY. WITH LIFT ENHANCED BY WEAK IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THIS
LOW...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLES
TO WARRANT THE MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THU AND FRI. AT THIS
TIME...IT APPEARS THAT MOISTURE WILL BE TOO LIMITED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES. I DID LOWER MAX TEMPS A CATEGORY OR SO ON
FRIDAY BUT WE SHOULD STILL SEE MAX TEMPS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
CLIMO.

AS UPPER-LOW DEPARTS TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY...QUASI-ZONAL MID/UPPER-
LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN LEE-SIDE TROFFING. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN
TO SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WILL PUSH TEMPS BACK INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 70S BY SUNDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL QUICKLY BECOME MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY BY MONDAY AS NORTHERN STREAM TROF DIGS INTO THE INTER-
MOUNTAIN WEST. H85 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO CLIMB TO AROUND 20C ACROSS
THE AREA ON MONDAY...WHICH WILL SUPPORT TEMPS NEAR 80 DEGREES. GFS
DEPICTS A STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE PANHANDLES ON
TUESDAY. WILL UNDERCUT THE MEX GUIDANCE BEHIND THIS FRONT AS IT KEEPS
TEMPS ABOVE CLIMO DESPITE PROGGING H85 TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
WILL NOT ADD PRECIP MENTION FOR THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY BUT WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR THIS POSSIBILITY OVER THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS.

JOHNSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                45  69  36  62  38 /  40  10   5  10  10
BEAVER OK                  53  68  40  62  38 /  80  10   5  20  10
BOISE CITY OK              35  63  33  60  33 /  10   5   5  10  10
BORGER TX                  51  69  42  61  42 /  60  10   5  10  10
BOYS RANCH TX              38  70  33  64  37 /  20   5   5  10  10
CANYON TX                  42  69  34  62  37 /  30  10   5  10  10
CLARENDON TX               52  72  43  64  42 /  70  20  10  20  10
DALHART TX                 38  67  32  61  34 /  10   5   5  10  10
GUYMON OK                  45  64  38  61  37 /  50  10   5  10  10
HEREFORD TX                38  68  34  63  37 /  20   5   5  10  10
LIPSCOMB TX                54  70  43  62  40 /  80  20   5  20  10
PAMPA TX                   52  69  41  63  41 /  70  20   5  20  10
SHAMROCK TX                56  73  46  65  42 /  80  20  10  20  10
WELLINGTON TX              57  74  48  65  43 /  80  20  10  20  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

24/02

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
333 PM CDT WED MAR 28 2007

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-291100-
ARMSTRONG-BEAVER-CARSON-CIMARRON-COLLINGSWORTH-DALLAM-DEAF SMITH-
DONLEY-GRAY-HANSFORD-HARTLEY-HEMPHILL-HUTCHINSON-LIPSCOMB-MOORE-
OCHILTREE-OLDHAM-POTTER-RANDALL-ROBERTS-SHERMAN-TEXAS-WHEELER-
333 PM CDT WED MAR 28 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...

...A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS
PANHANDLES UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT...

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT CROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE OKLAHOMA
AND TEXAS PANHANDLES...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM
GUYMON OKLAHOMA TO AMARILLO TEXAS TO CANYON TEXAS. THERE IS ALSO A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES. THE
MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES. ANY
TORNADOES THAT FORM WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG AND
DAMAGING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA. IN ADDITION...
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY OCCUR WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS
...WHICH MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING OR FLASH FLOODING.

WINDY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. THUS...CAUTION IS ADVISED ON AREA LAKES
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE WESTERN PANHANDLES AS THE DRYLINE MOVES EAST OF THAT
REGION AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DROP TO BELOW 25 PERCENT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ACROSS ALL OF THE
OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES SHOULD REMAIN ALERT AND BE READY FOR
LIKELY ACTIVATION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ANDRADE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
753 PM CDT WED MAR 28 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0746 PM     HAIL             16 N GUYMON             36.92N 101.48W
03/28/2007  E1.00 INCH       TEXAS              OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

            REPORTED ON STATE HIGHWAY 136 NEAR THE STATE LINE.

&&

KJS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
758 PM CDT WED MAR 28 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0750 PM     TORNADO          6 SW CLARENDON          34.88N 100.97W
03/28/2007                   DONLEY             TX   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

CORRECTED COUNTY/STATE...LOCATION

JMG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
813 PM CDT WED MAR 28 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0755 PM     TORNADO          1 E JERICHO             35.19N 100.91W
03/28/2007                   GRAY               TX   BROADCAST MEDIA

            18 WHEELERS FLIPPED BY TORNADO AT REST STOP ON
            INTERSTATE 40.

&&

CK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
816 PM CDT WED MAR 28 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0807 PM     HAIL             7 S MCLEAN              35.13N 100.60W
03/28/2007  E2.75 INCH       DONLEY             TX   STORM CHASER

            HIGHWAY 273

&&

JMG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
824 PM CDT WED MAR 28 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0823 PM     HAIL             2 NW CANYON             35.00N 101.95W
03/28/2007  E1.25 INCH       RANDALL            TX   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

KJS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
830 PM CDT WED MAR 28 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0824 PM     TORNADO          2 S MCLEAN              35.20N 100.60W
03/28/2007                   GRAY               TX   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

&&

JMG