Severe Thunderstorm Warning 176, NWS Amarillo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
646 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2007

.AVIATION...
AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING EAST OUT OF NEW MEXICO AND COLORADO WILL
SPREAD SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION ACROSS ALL THREE TAF
SITES THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY. IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN AND NEAR
THE CONVECTION WITH VFR OUTSIDE THE CONVECTION. WINDS WILL BE
VARIABLE AND STRONG IN AND NEAR THE CONVECTION AT 30 TO 40 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 50 KNOTS. OUTSIDE THE STORMS...SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AFTER 20Z.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2007/

DISCUSSION...
18Z RAOB FROM AMA SHOWS DEEPENING OF MOISTURE...ELEVATION OF CAPPING
INVERSION...TOPPED BY STEEP LAPSE RATES.  TSTMS DEVELOPING AT THIS
TIME NEAR NWRN CORNER OF FCST AREA...WHERE MID-LVL INSTBY IS
INCREASING NEAR LOW-LVL CONVERGENCE ZONE.  HAVE INCREASED POPS
SLIGHTLY TNGT...STILL CALLING FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTMS...
WITH SEVERE TSTMS POSSIBLE.  DEEP...RICH MSTR ALSO RESIDING S OF TX
PNHDL IS POISED TO MOVE NWD...WITH OLD FRONTAL BNDRY ALSO PROVIDING
A FOCUS FOR CONVERGENCE AND ENHANCED SHEAR.  ON FRI AND FRI NGT...
HAVE REORIENTED POPS...WITH HIGHEST POPS IN SRN ZONES...AS NEW COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO LIE ACROSS THIS AREA DURING AFTERNOON AND EVE.
HAVE KEPT LOW POPS SAT THRU SUN NGT...AS NW FLOW PERSISTS WITH
UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINING OVERHEAD.  BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL...WITH DRIER SWLY LOW-LVL WINDS...WARMER
CONDITIONS...AND LESS LIKELIHOOD OF TSTMS.

COCKRELL

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

11

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
350 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2007

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-011100-
ARMSTRONG-BEAVER-CARSON-CIMARRON-COLLINGSWORTH-DALLAM-DEAF SMITH-
DONLEY-GRAY-HANSFORD-HARTLEY-HEMPHILL-HUTCHINSON-LIPSCOMB-MOORE-
OCHILTREE-OLDHAM-POTTER-RANDALL-ROBERTS-SHERMAN-TEXAS-WHEELER-
350 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...

TORNADO WATCH 313 HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT. LARGE HAIL...
DAMAGING WINDS...HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREATS. THE GREATEST THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
GENERALLY BE NORTH OF THE CANADIAN RIVER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...AND THEN AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT. SOME
STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE FRIDAY AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. ALSO...THE THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
CONTINUE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ACROSS ALL
SECTIONS OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES SHOULD REMAIN ALERT AND
BE READY FOR ACTIVATION THROUGH TONIGHT.

HENNIG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
739 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0737 PM     HAIL             15 NW DALHART           36.22N 102.71W
05/31/2007  E0.88 INCH       DALLAM             TX   PUBLIC

            NEAR DUNN RD AND HWY 102

&&

RN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
747 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 PM     HAIL             13 WNW DALHART          36.13N 102.73W
05/31/2007  E1.00 INCH       DALLAM             TX   PUBLIC

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL...PERHAPS SLIGHTLY LARGER...LASTED
            FIVE TO TEN MINUTES

&&

MRK

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
809 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0807 PM     HAIL             4 E CLAUDE              35.11N 101.29W
05/31/2007  E1.00 INCH       ARMSTRONG          TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL

&&

RN