Severe Thunderstorm Warning 185, NWS Amarillo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
711 AM CDT FRI JUN 1 2007

.AVIATION...
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR LINGERING OVER THE PANHANDLES THIS MORNING
WILL INTERACT WITH A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST
PANHANDLES. ISOLATED STORMS WILL FORM IN THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
BUT IT APPEARS THE STORMS WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE KDHT TAF
SITE. THE FRONT MAY STALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL PANHANDLES THIS MORNING
BEFORE FINALLY PUSHING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS
AFTERNOON. SO WINDS MAY BE TRICKY IN THE SHORT TERM WITH NORTH TO
NORTHEAST FLOW THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN PANHANDLES...AND SOUTHERLY
WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. WIDESPREAD EASTERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT. SCT TO BKN MVFR CIGS WILL LIFT BY 18Z TO BE
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS. DECIDED TO PUT SOME PRECIP CHANCES IN ALL
TAF SITES STARTING AROUND 23Z...THEN CUT OFF THE MENTION OF THUNDER
BY 05Z. HOWEVER...STORMS MAY LINGER INTO THE EARLY MORNING TOMORROW
AS THE EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW MAY HELP SUSTAIN STORMS.

JJB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT FRI JUN 1 2007/

DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST CWA IS ONLY EXPECTED TO MOVE
SLOWLY SOUTHWARD TODAY. THE FRONT SHOULD HOLD UP STATIONARY NEAR
THE CANADIAN RIVER VALLEY BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT
SHOULD PROVIDE A SOURCE OF LIFT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS AND
ANOTHER MINOR SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO ROTATE SOUTHEAST ON THE
BOTTOM SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR WILL EXIST AGAIN TODAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
FRONT. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ALSO FIRE TO THE WEST OF THE
PANHANDLES ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH WHICH WILL EXTEND FROM THE COLD
FRONT SOUTHWARD IN FAR EASTERN NEW MEXICO. HAVE PLACED THE HIGHEST
POPS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT IN THE SOUTHERN CWA CLOSER TO THE
FRONT AND THE BEST MOISTURE. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN A
POSSIBILITY...SEE LATEST SWODY1 FOR DETAILS. HEAVY RAIN WILL
AGAIN BE AN ISSUE AS THE STALLED OUT FRONT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS.

THE ATMOSPHERE WILL AGAIN RECOVER BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD AGAIN DEVELOP JUST TO OUR WEST OR IN OUR
WESTERN CWA AND TRACK SOUTHEAST IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AGAIN...
SOME STORMS WILL PROBABLY BECOME SEVERE IN THE FAVORABLE SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE SOME BEYOND MONDAY NIGHT AS
NORTHWEST FLOW WEAKENS AND SHORT WAVE RIDGING MOVES OVER THE
PANHANDLES. HOWEVER...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES BY LATE IN THE WEEK. HAVE NOT ADDED POPS TO FORECAST FOR NOW
AS THERE WILL BE A QUESTION OF A CAPPING INVERSION ALONG WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF DRYING IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.

MODELS HINT AT BRINGING IN SOME LOW CLOUDS TO THE CWA ON SATURDAY
MORNING. IF THIS MATERIALIZES...THEN TEMPERATURES MAY BE TOO WARM.
GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE GFS MODEL FOR THIS FORECAST FOR TEMPERATURES
AS IT LOOKS FAIRLY REASONABLE.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

14/15

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
600 AM CDT FRI JUN 1 2007

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-011800-
ARMSTRONG-BEAVER-CARSON-CIMARRON-COLLINGSWORTH-DALLAM-DEAF SMITH-
DONLEY-GRAY-HANSFORD-HARTLEY-HEMPHILL-HUTCHINSON-LIPSCOMB-MOORE-
OCHILTREE-OLDHAM-POTTER-RANDALL-ROBERTS-SHERMAN-TEXAS-WHEELER-
600 AM CDT FRI JUN 1 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY REACH
SEVERE LEVELS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
THE PRIMARY THREAT MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...AND THEN AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT. SOME
STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS...WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. ALSO...THE THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
CONTINUE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD BE READY FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

BROST

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
715 AM CDT FRI JUN 1 2007

TXZ006-007-011300-
HARTLEY TX-MOORE TX-
715 AM CDT FRI JUN 1 2007

...LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN HARTLEY AND NORTHWESTERN MOORE
COUNTIES...

AT 715 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 11 MILES WEST OF CACTUS TO 11 MILES
NORTHEAST OF ROMERO MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

HAIL...STRONG WINDS...AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

JJB