Storm Warning 22, NWS Juneau, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAJK 061143
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM ADT FRI APR 6 2007 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-070100-
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
STORM FORCE LOW ABOUT 700 NM S OF YAKUTAT WILL CURVE NW TO NEAR
KODIAK ISLAND BY LATE TONIGHT. A STRONG WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE
NE INTO THE EASTERN GULF BY SAT NIGHT AND SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES ONSHORE SUN.

$$

PKZ041-070100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 AM ADT FRI APR 6 2007 

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT BY LATE MORNING. SEAS
14 FT BUILDING TO 21 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO SE 20 KT LATE. SEAS 21 FT
SUBSIDING TO 18 FT LATE. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. S SWELL.  
.SAT NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ042-070100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 AM ADT FRI APR 6 2007 

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND INCREASING TO 55 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT
BUILDING TO 20 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 45 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT LATE. SEAS 20 FT
SUBSIDING TO 18 FT LATE. RAIN IN THE EVENING...THEN SHOWERS LATE.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. S SWELL.  
.SAT NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ043-070100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 AM ADT FRI APR 6 2007 

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT BECOMING SOUTHEAST 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 12 FT BUILDING TO 20 FT LATE. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 19 FT.
RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ051-070100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 AM ADT FRI APR 6 2007 

...STORM WARNING TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. OUT
OF INTERIOR BAYS AND PASSES...GUSTS TO 60 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 12 FT BUILDING TO 18 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 55 KT BECOMING S 30 KT LATE. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.  
.SAT NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ052-070100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 AM ADT FRI APR 6 2007 

...STORM WARNING TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT BECOMING E 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.  SEAS
12 FT BUILDING TO 18 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT BECOMING S 30 KT LATE. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...E GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK52 PAJK 062327
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 PM ADT FRI APR 6 2007 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-071400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A 975 MB GALE 300 NM SW OF SITKA FRI NIGH WILL MOVE NW TO COOK
INLET THROUGH SAT. A 965 MB LOW CENTER WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH
THE CENTRAL GULF SAT NIGHT.

$$

PKZ041-071400-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 PM ADT FRI APR 6 2007 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 20 FT
SUBSIDING TO 18 FT LATE. RAIN IN THE EVENING. 
.SAT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 15 FT
SUBSIDING TO 12 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SW SWELL. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ042-071400-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 PM ADT FRI APR 6 2007 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT LATE. SEAS 20 FT
SUBSIDING TO 18 FT LATE. RAIN IN THE EVENING...THEN SHOWERS
LATE. 
.SAT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 15 FT
SUBSIDING TO 12 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. S SWELL IN THE MORNING. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. S SWELL. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ043-071400-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 PM ADT FRI APR 6 2007 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT LATE. OUT OF CROSS
SOUND...GUSTS TO 50 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 20 FT SUBSIDING TO
18 FT LATE. RAIN IN THE EVENING...THEN SHOWERS LATE. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT SUBSIDING TO 13 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. S SWELL IN THE MORNING. SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE GALE TO 40 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF CROSS SOUND.
SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. S SWELL. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ051-071400-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 PM ADT FRI APR 6 2007 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT BECOMING S 25 KT LATE. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN
IN THE EVENING...THEN SHOWERS LATE. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. OUT OF INTERIOR BAYS AND PASSES...GUSTS TO
35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 16 FT SUBSIDING TO 13 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. S SWELL IN THE MORNING. SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ052-071400-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 PM ADT FRI APR 6 2007 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS 20 FT.
RAIN IN THE EVENING...THEN SHOWERS LATE. 
.SAT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 16 FT
SUBSIDING TO 13 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SE SWELL IN THE MORNING.
SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...E GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. S SWELL. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 13 FT. S SWELL. RAIN.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
1100 AM ADT THU APR 5 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
.SHORT RANGE...THE CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A FRONT
LIFTING OVER THE PANHANDLE ATTM. THERE IS PRECIP FALLING OVER
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT IN THE NORTHERN AREAS. THINK
THAT THERE WILL NOT BE THAT MUCH RAIN FOR THE FAR NORTHERN AREAS
TODAY AS THERE IS STRONG EASTERLY WINDS THAT IS MAKING IT VERY
DRY SO IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO MOISTEN UP.
MOST OF THE PRECIP IS IN THE LIQUID FORM BUT SOME AREAS IN THE
CENTRAL INNER CHANNELS ARE REPORTING SOME LIGHT SNOW OR MIX
PRECIP. ALL OF THE PRECIP WILL TURN TO ALL RAIN BY THE AFTERNOON
AND WILL REMAIN TO BE IN THE LIQUID FORM THROUGH FRI WITH WAA
INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH. THERE ARE SOME GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE THIS MORNING BUT BY THE AFTERNOON THE FRONT WILL HAVE
MOVED THROUGH THE AREA AND THE WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING. SO WITH
THAT SAID WILL EXPIRE THE ADVISORIES AROUND THE NOON HOUR.

THE PARENT UPPER AND SURFACE LOW NEAR 50N/155W WILL OPEN UP TO A
TROF AS IT LIFTS NORTH TO BE OVER THE AK PENINSULA BY FRI
AFTERNOON. IN DOING SO A VERY STRONG UPPER TROF ALONG WITH A
STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT OVER THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH FRI. AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND
LIFT INTO THE CENTRAL GULF BY FRI AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL DEEPEN
TO AROUND 973MB BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL PRODUCE VERY STRONG
WINDS FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES ALONG WITH AREAS WITH GOOD EAST/WEST
EXPOSURE. THERE WILL BE A 70 TO 80KT LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE
SOUTHERN AREAS AND SOME OF THAT WIND WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE
SO WILL UPGRADE THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A WARNING FOR FRIDAY
MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE REST OF THE COASTAL
AREAS AND SOME OF THE INNER CHANNELS WILL SEE ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS THROUGH THE SAME TIME FRAME.

THERE WILL BE A SMALL BREAK IN THE PRECIP TONIGHT FOR THE
NORTHERN AREAS BUT THE SOUTHERN AREAS WILL REMAIN TO SEE LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN FALL THIS EVENING AND INTO FRIDAY. THE NORTHERN
AREAS WILL BE THE RAIN DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT AND PERSIST
THROUGH FRI. THE FREEZING LEVEL WILL CLIMB TO ABOVE 6000 FEET SO
THERE MAY BE A POTENTIAL FOR SOME MODERATE RISES IN SMALL STREAMS
BUT THINK THEY WILL REMAIN WITHIN THEIR BANKS.

.LONG RANGE...LOOKS LIKE SOUTHEAST ALASKA IS TRANSITIONING BACK
TO A WET PATTERN. LARGE SCALE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PACIFIC WILL
MOVE INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC ON FRIDAY AND THEN MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL PART OF ALASKA. MEANWHILE...
ANOTHER LOW WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC ON
SATURDAY...AND THEN MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PACIFIC LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AS IT LOOKS NOW...A NEW LOW SHOULD
AFFECT SOUTHEAST ALASKA ABOUT EVERY 36 TO 48 HOURS OR SO.

WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY. THE GRADIENT WILL DEFINITELY BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING GALES OR EVEN STORM FORCE WINDS TO THE
GULF. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE WHICH INNER CHANNELS WILL
EXPERIENCE THE STRONGEST WINDS AND WHICH ADJACENT ZONES WILL BE
AFFECTED. TIMING WILL BE THE MOST DIFFICULT PART OF THIS
FORECAST. WILL LIKELY NOT MAKE TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES
WITH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST SINCE THE MODELS
HANDLING OF THESE SYSTEMS COULD BE SUSPECT.

RAIN AND SNOW HAVE RETURNED TO SOUTHEAST ALASKA...AND WE LOOK TO
BE IN A WET PATTERN OVER THE UPCOMING WEEK. THERE WILL BE SOME
LULL IN THE POPS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR ZONES IN BETWEEN
SYSTEMS. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE WAY
UP ACROSS THE AREA...LIKELY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS. WITH
THE MELTING LEVELS RISING AND THE INCREASED PRECIPITATION...WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR THE AREA FOR POTENTIAL FLOODING ISSUES. AT THIS
TIME...IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A MAJOR THREAT...BUT IT WILL
DEFINITELY NEED TO BE MONITORED.

.AJK...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WATCH...AKZ27 28 FOR FRIDAY
         WIND ADV...AKZ17-23 25 27-29

MARINE...GALE...PKZ51 52 41-43 36 22
         SCA...PKZ11-13 21 31-35