Gale Warning 167, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
1100 AM ADT THU APR 5 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
.SHORT RANGE...THE CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A FRONT
LIFTING OVER THE PANHANDLE ATTM. THERE IS PRECIP FALLING OVER
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT IN THE NORTHERN AREAS. THINK
THAT THERE WILL NOT BE THAT MUCH RAIN FOR THE FAR NORTHERN AREAS
TODAY AS THERE IS STRONG EASTERLY WINDS THAT IS MAKING IT VERY
DRY SO IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO MOISTEN UP.
MOST OF THE PRECIP IS IN THE LIQUID FORM BUT SOME AREAS IN THE
CENTRAL INNER CHANNELS ARE REPORTING SOME LIGHT SNOW OR MIX
PRECIP. ALL OF THE PRECIP WILL TURN TO ALL RAIN BY THE AFTERNOON
AND WILL REMAIN TO BE IN THE LIQUID FORM THROUGH FRI WITH WAA
INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH. THERE ARE SOME GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE THIS MORNING BUT BY THE AFTERNOON THE FRONT WILL HAVE
MOVED THROUGH THE AREA AND THE WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING. SO WITH
THAT SAID WILL EXPIRE THE ADVISORIES AROUND THE NOON HOUR.

THE PARENT UPPER AND SURFACE LOW NEAR 50N/155W WILL OPEN UP TO A
TROF AS IT LIFTS NORTH TO BE OVER THE AK PENINSULA BY FRI
AFTERNOON. IN DOING SO A VERY STRONG UPPER TROF ALONG WITH A
STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT OVER THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH FRI. AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND
LIFT INTO THE CENTRAL GULF BY FRI AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL DEEPEN
TO AROUND 973MB BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL PRODUCE VERY STRONG
WINDS FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES ALONG WITH AREAS WITH GOOD EAST/WEST
EXPOSURE. THERE WILL BE A 70 TO 80KT LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE
SOUTHERN AREAS AND SOME OF THAT WIND WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE
SO WILL UPGRADE THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A WARNING FOR FRIDAY
MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE REST OF THE COASTAL
AREAS AND SOME OF THE INNER CHANNELS WILL SEE ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS THROUGH THE SAME TIME FRAME.

THERE WILL BE A SMALL BREAK IN THE PRECIP TONIGHT FOR THE
NORTHERN AREAS BUT THE SOUTHERN AREAS WILL REMAIN TO SEE LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN FALL THIS EVENING AND INTO FRIDAY. THE NORTHERN
AREAS WILL BE THE RAIN DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT AND PERSIST
THROUGH FRI. THE FREEZING LEVEL WILL CLIMB TO ABOVE 6000 FEET SO
THERE MAY BE A POTENTIAL FOR SOME MODERATE RISES IN SMALL STREAMS
BUT THINK THEY WILL REMAIN WITHIN THEIR BANKS.

.LONG RANGE...LOOKS LIKE SOUTHEAST ALASKA IS TRANSITIONING BACK
TO A WET PATTERN. LARGE SCALE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PACIFIC WILL
MOVE INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC ON FRIDAY AND THEN MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL PART OF ALASKA. MEANWHILE...
ANOTHER LOW WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC ON
SATURDAY...AND THEN MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PACIFIC LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AS IT LOOKS NOW...A NEW LOW SHOULD
AFFECT SOUTHEAST ALASKA ABOUT EVERY 36 TO 48 HOURS OR SO.

WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY. THE GRADIENT WILL DEFINITELY BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING GALES OR EVEN STORM FORCE WINDS TO THE
GULF. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE WHICH INNER CHANNELS WILL
EXPERIENCE THE STRONGEST WINDS AND WHICH ADJACENT ZONES WILL BE
AFFECTED. TIMING WILL BE THE MOST DIFFICULT PART OF THIS
FORECAST. WILL LIKELY NOT MAKE TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES
WITH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST SINCE THE MODELS
HANDLING OF THESE SYSTEMS COULD BE SUSPECT.

RAIN AND SNOW HAVE RETURNED TO SOUTHEAST ALASKA...AND WE LOOK TO
BE IN A WET PATTERN OVER THE UPCOMING WEEK. THERE WILL BE SOME
LULL IN THE POPS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR ZONES IN BETWEEN
SYSTEMS. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE WAY
UP ACROSS THE AREA...LIKELY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS. WITH
THE MELTING LEVELS RISING AND THE INCREASED PRECIPITATION...WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR THE AREA FOR POTENTIAL FLOODING ISSUES. AT THIS
TIME...IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A MAJOR THREAT...BUT IT WILL
DEFINITELY NEED TO BE MONITORED.

.AJK...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WATCH...AKZ27 28 FOR FRIDAY
         WIND ADV...AKZ17-23 25 27-29

MARINE...GALE...PKZ51 52 41-43 36 22
         SCA...PKZ11-13 21 31-35