Gale Warning 165, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
1100 AM ADT WED APR 4 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
.SHORT RANGE...THE UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE RIDGE JUST OFF THE WEST
COAST OF NORTH AMERICA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE COAST TONIGHT
AS A DEEP LOW SETTLES INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF ALASKA. OFFSHORE
FLOW ACROSS THE PANHANDLE IS INCREASING AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS
TIGHTEN BETWEEN THE LOW TO THE WEST AND THE PERSISTENT HIGH TO
THE EAST. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL
SPREAD PRECIPITATION INTO THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT
WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THICKENING OVER THE SOUTHERN INNER
CHANNELS. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE BY
EARLY THURSDAY BUT DOWNSLOPE DRYING FROM THE LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE
FLOW WILL DELAY THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTH UNTIL
LATE IN THE DAY.

STRONG WIND GUSTS FROM INTERIOR PASSES WILL INCREASE THROUGH
TONIGHT AND THEN DIMINISH SOME LATE THURSDAY AS THE INITIAL
TROUGH PASSES THE AREA. WIND ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR
SEVERAL ZONES STARTING LATE WED. ANOTHER STRONGER TROUGH WILL
INCREASE WINDS AGAIN AFTER THURSDAY. CONDITIONS ARE STILL
FAVORABLE FOR A MODERATE TAKU WIND EVENT EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

.LONG RANGE...
MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE IS STILL ON TRACK. FORECAST PROBLEM IS
SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING ON SE SIDE OF MAJOR UPPER/SFC LOW 00Z
FRI THAT ROARS UP ALONG 140W THEN RECURVES BACK INTO CENTRAL GULF
FRI NITE. NAM SOLUTION SLOWER THAN GFS BUT WITH SOUTH JET
DEVELOPING ALOFT OVER THE ASSOCIATED FRONT...HAD TO GO WITH
FASTER SPEED AND PLENTY OF STORM FORCE WINDS. HOW MUCH WARMING?
A QUICK LOOK AT GFS FORECAST THICKNESS VALUES 1000-850HPA PLACES
1300 LINE AT 12Z FRI FROM PAGS TO ELDRED ROCK. METHINKS WE ARE
DONE WITH ANY SNOW FOR THIS EVENT AFTER THAT. ALL MODELS BRING
MAJOR UPPER/SFC LOW CENTER TO KODIAK ISLAND ON SUNDAY. EVEN
LONGER RANGE PROGS WAIT UNTIL MONDAY TO BRING BACK ANY COLD AIR
ALOFT AT ALL FOR A GOOD MELTDOWN INTO THE WEEKEND AND PERHAPS
BEYOND.

.AJK...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY AKZ017>020-022-023-025-027>029 TONIGHT
         AND THURSDAY

MARINE...GALE...PKZ011>013-021-022-032-033-035-036
                PKZ041>043-051-052
      ...SMCR...PKZ031-032-034

CFD/JC