Storm Warning 6, NWS Fairbanks, AK

000
FZAK52 PAFG 302303
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
203 PM AST FRI NOV 30 2007

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-011300-
203 PM AST FRI NOV 30 2007

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 967 MB LOW 500 NM NORTHWEST OF ADAK WILL MOVE NORTHWEST OVER
RUSSIA FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT. HIGH ORESSURE OVER THE EASTERN
ARCTIC OCEAN WILL EXTEND TO THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

$$

PKZ200-011300-
NORTON SOUND-
203 PM AST FRI NOV 30 2007

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT SUBSIDING TO 6
FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT DECREASING TO 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE
WATERS 5 FT SUBSIDING. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.WED...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ210-011300-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
203 PM AST FRI NOV 30 2007

...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 60 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WINDS 45 KT DECREASING TO 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT SUBSIDING
TO 12 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...NE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ215-011300-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
203 PM AST FRI NOV 30 2007

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 40 KT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 35 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.MON...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.WED...E WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ220-011300-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
203 PM AST FRI NOV 30 2007

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 45 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...SE WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT. FREEZING 
SPRAY. 
.SUN...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

JL/DA NOV 07

000
FZAK52 PAFG 011252
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
352 AM AST SAT DEC 1 2007

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-020330-
352 AM AST SAT DEC 1 2007

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 974 MB LOW OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA WILL MOVE NORTHWEST OVER
RUSSIA SAT PM. A WEATHER FRONT OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA WILL
MOVE WEST AND DISSIPATE OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA SUN. STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR OF ALASKA WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUN.

$$

PKZ200-020330-
NORTON SOUND-
352 AM AST SAT DEC 1 2007

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...E WINDS 35 KT DECREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT DECREASING TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT
SUBSIDING. 
.SUN...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...NE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ210-020330-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
352 AM AST SAT DEC 1 2007

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...SE WINDS 45 KT DECREASING TO 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...NE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ215-020330-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
352 AM AST SAT DEC 1 2007

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...
...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...E WINDS 35 KT DECREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT SUBSIDING
TO 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT SUBSIDING. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS CALM. 
.WED...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS CALM.  

$$

PKZ220-020330-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
352 AM AST SAT DEC 1 2007

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...SE WINDS 45 KT DECREASING TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING.
.SUN NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.MON...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON NIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

DEC 07

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
223 PM AST THU NOV 29 2007

.DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...STRONG RIDGE OVER MAINLAND ALASKA WITH LOW OVER THE
SOUTHWEST BERING SEA...PROVIDING FAST SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER WESTERN
ALASKA WITH SEVERAL SHORT WAVES MOVING NORTH THROUGH SATURDAY.
THEN THE RIDGE WILL EXPAND WEST OVER WESTERN ALASKA WHILE
DEVELOPING A HIGH CENTER JUST NORTH OF BARROW...AND THE FLOW ON
THE EAST SIDE OF THE HIGH AS IT DRIFTS NORTH WILL BRING COLDER AIR
INTO THE INTERIOR FROM NORTHERN CANADA.

SURFACE...963 MB LOW OVER SOUTHWEST BERING WITH A STRONG FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVING NORTH OVER WESTERN ALASKA AND SERIES OF WAVES
MOVING NORTH OVER THIS AREA THROUGH FRI PM...AN ESPECIALLY STRONG
WAVE WILL BECOME A 969 MB LOW OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS FRI AM
AND THEN CURVE NORTHWEST TO SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND FRI EVENING AND
CONTINUE NORTHWEST INTO RUSSIA, THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING THE
STRONGEST WINDS TO THE COASTAL ZONES FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A 1045 MB HIGH OVER COPPER RIVER BASIN AND 1040 MB HIGH OVER
YUKON FLATS PERSISTING.

MODELS...GFS AND WRF ARE SIMILAR THROUGH SAT. IN THE MEDIUM TERM
ECMWF IS QUICKER TO BRING COLDER AIR INTO EASTERN INTERIOR THOUGH
IT IS ALSO QUICKER TO BRING SOME WARMING TO THE AREA DAY 6 AND 7.

NORTH SLOPE...EAST WINDS INCREASING TONIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH
FRI NIGHT THEN DIMINISHING SAT. SOME AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW ONCE
WINDS GET STRONG ENOUGH BUT ADVISORY CONDITIONS NOT EXPECTED. ONLY
OTHER WEATHER EXPECTED IS SOME HIGHER CLOUDS FROM THE WEST COAST
FRONTAL SYSTEMS AND ITS WAVES. EXPECT AREAS OF STRATUS TO PERSIST
ALONG IMMEDIATE COAST.

WESTERN ALASKA...WILL CONTINUE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR ZONES
211-214...AND EXTEND WARNING INTO FRI NIGHT FOR ZONES 211 213
214. WILL CONTINUE WINTER STORM WATCH ZONE 216 DUE TO THE SETUP
FOR FREEZING RAIN NEAR THE NULATO HILLS DUE TO COLD AIR
DAMMING...BUT...LATEST MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON PRECIP MOVING
OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THIS ZONE. SO SUCCEEDING SHIFTS MAY
END UP CANCELING IT IF MODELS ARE DEPICTING THINGS WELL. VERY WARM
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS WITH SOME PRECIP
WORKING NORTH OVER ZONES 213 214 EASTERN 215 AND 211...BUT THE
RIDGE ALOFT WILL BE BLOCKING A LOT OF THE PRECIP OUT OF ALL BUT
WESTERN ZONE 210 AND 212.

CENTRAL/EASTERN INTERIOR...CLOUDS OVER ZONE 224 DRYING UP THIS
EVENING. GAP FLOW THROUGH ALASKA RANGE PASSES EXPECTED FOR SOME
TIME...AND AS HIGH OVER EASTERN INTERIOR SHIFTS A BIT TOWARD
CANADA...EXPECT TANANA VALLEY JET TO DEVELOP. OTHERWISE QUIET AND
CERTAINLY DRY FOR NEXT FEW DAYS.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR AKZ216.
HIGH WIND WARNING FOR AKZ211-AKZ212-AKZ213-AKZ214.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ235-PKZ240.
STORM WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ220.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.

&&

JL NOV 07