Brisk Wind Advisory 147, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
223 PM AST THU NOV 29 2007

.DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...STRONG RIDGE OVER MAINLAND ALASKA WITH LOW OVER THE
SOUTHWEST BERING SEA...PROVIDING FAST SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER WESTERN
ALASKA WITH SEVERAL SHORT WAVES MOVING NORTH THROUGH SATURDAY.
THEN THE RIDGE WILL EXPAND WEST OVER WESTERN ALASKA WHILE
DEVELOPING A HIGH CENTER JUST NORTH OF BARROW...AND THE FLOW ON
THE EAST SIDE OF THE HIGH AS IT DRIFTS NORTH WILL BRING COLDER AIR
INTO THE INTERIOR FROM NORTHERN CANADA.

SURFACE...963 MB LOW OVER SOUTHWEST BERING WITH A STRONG FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVING NORTH OVER WESTERN ALASKA AND SERIES OF WAVES
MOVING NORTH OVER THIS AREA THROUGH FRI PM...AN ESPECIALLY STRONG
WAVE WILL BECOME A 969 MB LOW OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS FRI AM
AND THEN CURVE NORTHWEST TO SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND FRI EVENING AND
CONTINUE NORTHWEST INTO RUSSIA, THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING THE
STRONGEST WINDS TO THE COASTAL ZONES FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A 1045 MB HIGH OVER COPPER RIVER BASIN AND 1040 MB HIGH OVER
YUKON FLATS PERSISTING.

MODELS...GFS AND WRF ARE SIMILAR THROUGH SAT. IN THE MEDIUM TERM
ECMWF IS QUICKER TO BRING COLDER AIR INTO EASTERN INTERIOR THOUGH
IT IS ALSO QUICKER TO BRING SOME WARMING TO THE AREA DAY 6 AND 7.

NORTH SLOPE...EAST WINDS INCREASING TONIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH
FRI NIGHT THEN DIMINISHING SAT. SOME AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW ONCE
WINDS GET STRONG ENOUGH BUT ADVISORY CONDITIONS NOT EXPECTED. ONLY
OTHER WEATHER EXPECTED IS SOME HIGHER CLOUDS FROM THE WEST COAST
FRONTAL SYSTEMS AND ITS WAVES. EXPECT AREAS OF STRATUS TO PERSIST
ALONG IMMEDIATE COAST.

WESTERN ALASKA...WILL CONTINUE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR ZONES
211-214...AND EXTEND WARNING INTO FRI NIGHT FOR ZONES 211 213
214. WILL CONTINUE WINTER STORM WATCH ZONE 216 DUE TO THE SETUP
FOR FREEZING RAIN NEAR THE NULATO HILLS DUE TO COLD AIR
DAMMING...BUT...LATEST MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON PRECIP MOVING
OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THIS ZONE. SO SUCCEEDING SHIFTS MAY
END UP CANCELING IT IF MODELS ARE DEPICTING THINGS WELL. VERY WARM
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS WITH SOME PRECIP
WORKING NORTH OVER ZONES 213 214 EASTERN 215 AND 211...BUT THE
RIDGE ALOFT WILL BE BLOCKING A LOT OF THE PRECIP OUT OF ALL BUT
WESTERN ZONE 210 AND 212.

CENTRAL/EASTERN INTERIOR...CLOUDS OVER ZONE 224 DRYING UP THIS
EVENING. GAP FLOW THROUGH ALASKA RANGE PASSES EXPECTED FOR SOME
TIME...AND AS HIGH OVER EASTERN INTERIOR SHIFTS A BIT TOWARD
CANADA...EXPECT TANANA VALLEY JET TO DEVELOP. OTHERWISE QUIET AND
CERTAINLY DRY FOR NEXT FEW DAYS.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR AKZ216.
HIGH WIND WARNING FOR AKZ211-AKZ212-AKZ213-AKZ214.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ235-PKZ240.
STORM WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ220.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.

&&

JL NOV 07