Brisk Wind Advisory 159, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
200 PM AST SUN DEC 9 2007

.DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...BROAD TROUGH PERSISTING OVER BERING SEA WITH RIDGE OVER
EASTERN PACIFIC AND EASTERN ALASKA. LOW SOUTHWEST OF SAINT MATTHEW
ISLAND WILL DRIFT NORTH TO BERING STRAIT 00Z WED AND TO BARROW 00Z
THU. TROUGH FROM LOW MOVING NORTH OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL
INTERIOR TUE PM AND WED MORNING.

SURFACE...1000 MB LOW 400 MILES NORTHWEST OF BARROW SLOWLY
FILLING. 983 MB LOW 90 MILES EAST OF THE PRIBILOFS MOVING TO 60
MILES SOUTHWEST OF GAMBELL 00Z TUE AT 985 MB THEN WEAKENING TO 990
MB 12Z TUE AND DRIFTING NORTHEAST. ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT FROM
MEKOYRUK TO BETHEL AT 00Z MON OCCLUDING AND MOVING TO GAMBELL TO
NOME TO GALENA 12Z MON...THIS OCCLUSION THEN MOVING TO GAMBELL TO
KOTZEBUE TO TANANA 00Z TUE AND TO POINT HOPE TO BARTER ISLAND 12Z
TUE THEN DISSIPATING. LOW OVER NORTH PACIFIC MOVING TO KENAI
PENINSULA 00Z TUE...A SMALL SECONDARY LOW FORMING NEAR MCGRATH 00Z
TUE THEN MOVING TO CENTRAL SEWARD PENINSULA 12Z TUE AT 990 MB
WHILE MAIN LOW WEAKENS AND DRIFTS EAST ACROSS NORTHERN GULF OF
ALASKA.

MODELS...WRF MAY BE TOO DEEP ON UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING NORTH OVER
BERING SEA...OTHERWISE IN SHORT TERM MODELS AGREE FAIRLY WELL ON
SURFACE LOW MOVING NORTH OVER BERING SEA TO SOUTHWEST OF SAINT
LAWRENCE ISLAND...THEN DRIFTING NORTHEAST.

NORTH SLOPE...AREAS OF FLURRIES TONIGHT FROM WEAK CIRCULATION
AROUND OLD LOW TO THE NORTHWEST OF BARROW...MAINLY ZONES 201-203
AND 205. INCREASING CLOUDS AND EAST WINDS MONDAY WITH APPROACH OF
OCCLUSION...CHANCE OF SNOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT WESTERN HALF

WESTERN ALASKA...OTHER THAN ZONE 210 HAVE UPGRADED ALL WATCHES TO
WARNINGS...BLIZ FOR 211 214 213 TONIGHT ONLY...HEAVY SNOW 212 215
216 TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MAINLY NULATO HILLS. WILL CONTINUE HIGH
SURF FOR ZONE 213 SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND FOR JUST TONIGHT. EXPECT
ZONE 210 POTENTIAL IS WEAK FOR EITHER HEAVY SNOW OR BLOWING
SNOW BUT WILL SEE HOW THINGS DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN ZONES. MODELS
HAVE DROPPED THEIR QPF SOME IN THESE LATEST RUNS AND ONLY COLD BAY
SOUNDING AT 12Z HAD A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 0.63...KING
SALMON HAD LESS THAN 0.50 INCHES. SO HAVE DECIDED A BLIZZARD FOR A
PERIOD OF TIME AT ZONE 211 MAY BE MORE LIKELY THAN HEAVY SNOW. WINDS
DROPPING TOWARD MORNING SO HIGH SURF AND BLIZ WARNINGS ARE EXPECTED
TO END. SNOW SPREADING NORTH TO KOTZEBUE BY MON AM..THEN CONTINUING
NORTH MONDAY. FOR INLAND AREAS MOST OF THE SNOW...MAYBE ALL OF
IT...WILL OCCUR WEST OF 157W LONGITUDE.

CENTRAL/EASTERN INTERIOR...INCREASING SOUTH WINDS THROUGH ALASKA
RANGE PASSES MON PM THEN DIMINISHING TUE BEHIND UPPER TROUGH
MOVING NORTH. AS TROUGH MOVES OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN INTERIOR TUE
NIGHT AND WED AM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW TO ZONES 218-223 AND
225.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR AKZ213.

HEAVY SNOW WARNING FOR AKZ212-AKZ215-AKZ216.

BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ211-AKZ213-AKZ214.

WINTER STORM WATCH FOR AKZ210.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ220.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ215-PKZ225-PKZ230.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.
&&

JL DEC 07