Brisk Wind Advisory 157, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
219 PM AST SAT DEC 8 2007

.DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...TROUGH OVER BERING SEA PERSISTING WITH RIDGE OVER EASTERN
PACIFIC AND EASTERN ALASKA. LOW MOVING NORTH FROM SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIANS WILL MOVE TO JUST NORTH OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND 00Z TUE
AND THEN TO THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA 12Z WED.

SURFACE...998 MB LOW 400 MILES WEST OF BARROW DRIFTING NORTH AND
DISSIPATING BY 00Z MON. SEVERAL OCCLUSIONS OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY AND DISSIPATE INTO TROUGHS BY
THAT TIME...BEFORE REACHING THE SOUTHEASTERN BROOKS RANGE SUN
NIGHT. A LOW SOUTH OF ADAK WILL MOVE NORTH TO THE PRIBILOFS 00Z
MON AT 978 MB...THEN TO SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND 12Z MON AT 976 MB
THEN DRIFT NORTHEAST TO OUTER NORTON SOUND 12Z TUE AT 980 MB.

MODELS...GFS OPERATIONAL WANTS TO MOVE INCOMING SURFACE LOW INTO
BERING TOO FAR TO THE NORTHWEST WHILE ALL THE OTHER MODELS...
ECMWF..WRF...UKMET KEEP THE LOW CENTER ALONG OR EAST OF SAINT
LAWRENCE ISLAND...SO HAVE FAVORED THE MAJORITY AT THIS TIME.

NORTH SLOPE...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ZONES 201 AND 210 TONIGHT
AROUND OLD LOW NEAR WRANGELL ISLAND. OTHERWISE QUIET WEATHER AS
THE FIRST SEVERAL OCCLUSIONS WHICH ARE WEAKENING OVER THE INTERIOR
THROUGH SUN WILL NOT AFFECT THE BROOKS RANGE. CLOUDS MOVING NORTH
OVER AREAS MONDAY FROM OCCLUSION WITH BERING SEA LOW AND EAST
WINDS PICKING UP BEGINNING SUN NIGHT. CHANCE OF SNOW MONDAY FOR
ZONE 201 AND WESTERN 205.

WESTERN ALASKA...BASED ON THE FAVORED EASTERN TRACK OF THE BERING
LOW...WE HAVE EXTENDED WATCHES THROUGH MONDAY FOR ZONES 211 AND
212. HAVE ADDED ZONES 210 AND 216 FOR WATCHES FOR HEAVY SNOW. WILL
HOLD STEADY ON BLIZZARD WATCHES FOR ZONES 213 AND 214...INCREASING
WARM AIR PRESENT AND A DOWNWARD TREND IN THE WIND AS THE SNOW
MOVES IN MAY MAKE IT HARD TO GET NEAR-ZERO VISIBILITIES. SNOW
SPREADING NORTH SUN PM TO ZONE 210 SN NORTH TO NEAR RED DOG PORT
MON A...THEN NORTH TO POINT HOPE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

CENTRAL/EASTERN INTERIOR...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS NEAR ALASKA
RANGE CREST ZONES 225 AND 226 THIS EVENING WITH NORTH-MOVING
WEAKENING OCCLUSION...WITH SNOW OVER ZONES 219 AND 221 AND FAR
WESTERN 218 TONIGHT...AND OVER ZONES 218-222 AND NORTHERN 224 SUN
AS OCCLUSION MOVES INTO CANADA BUT WESTERLY FLOW OCCURS OVER
AREA. SNOW OVER EASTERN INTERIOR WILL LINGER WELL INTO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THOUGH MODELS TEND TO DRY THINGS OUT AFTER 00Z...THIS
MAY BE PREMATURE. NONETHELESS AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND LESS THAN
1 INCH EXPECTED AS OCCLUSIONS ARE IN A DISSIPATING MODE.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...ON MONDAY SOUTHEAST WINDS
OF 30 TO 40 MPH OVER NORTON SOUND AND THE BERING STRAIT COAST WILL
OCCUR WHICH MAY GIVE SOME HIGH SURF TO ZONES 211 AND THE SEWARD
PENINSULA PORTION OF 213...BUT WINDS WILL ALSO BE DECREASING
THROUGH THE DAY SO THERE IS LITTLE CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT EROSION
AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLIZZARD WATCH FOR AKZ213-AKZ214.

WINTER STORM WATCH FOR AKZ210-AKZ211-AKZ212-AKZ215-AKZ216.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ220.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ220.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210.
&&

JL DEC 07